007
FXUS61 KRNK 300610
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
210 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A lingering warm and unstable airmass remains in place through
Tuesday. A cold front will move through the region
Tuesday/Wednesday, which will bring a slightly cooler and less
humid airmass into the region. Until then, diurnal showers and
storms with heavy rain resulting in localized flooding, as well
as isolated severe storms causing wind damage. With the frontal
passage on Tuesday, thunderstorms may pose more of a severe
threat across the Piedmont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

 1) Thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon and evening.

2) The main threat from storms will be heavy rain, which could
lead to localized flash flooding.

Very stagnant airmass remains in place over the region.
Expecting another round of thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening as daytime heating leads to increasing instability.

Areas of patchy dense fog this morning should give way to partly
sunny skies through late morning. As with the past few days, storms will
begin to develop by late morning/early afternoon and will
likely continue into the evening and overnight hours. Lack of
forcing today will limit coverage and intensity of storms,
however storms will still be capable of heavy rainfall and
perhaps an isolated threat of strong winds. Storms will weaken
with loss of daytime heating, but a few could linger close to
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM EDT Monday...

Key Points:

1. Strong to severe storms, with damaging wind gusts, possible
Tuesday.
2. Lingering showers/storms Wednesday afternoon in the east.
3. Dry Thursday.
4. Above normal temperatures through the period.

A look at the 29 Jun 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows a shortwave trough moving east across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. Its axis is expected to
be over OH/WV/TN early Tuesday evening. Additionally, another
shortwave trough will follow on the heels of the first, crossing
Hudson Bay Tuesday evening. Looking west, upper level ridging is
expected over the Central Plains states. Looking southeast, a closed
high is expected to be over the western Atlantic, north of
Hispaniola. For Wednesday/Wednesday night, the first shortwave
trough is expected to be near the mid-Atlantic east coast by
Wednesday evening. The second shortwave trough is expected to be
over the Great Lakes and Lower Ohio Valley early Wednesday evening.
A ridge of high pressure continues over the Central Plains and in
the western Atlantic near Hispaniola. A trough is expected to move
onshore the Pacific Northwest. For Thursday/Thursday night, The
second shortwave trough is expected to cross our region and amplify.
Ridging is expected to continue over the Central Plains with a
trough deepening over western CONUS.

At the surface, a cold front/surface trough crosses our region on
Tuesday, and by the early evening is expected to be over eastern
VA/NC. High pressure will be centered over KS/M. The western axis of
a ridge of high pressure will be positioned over FL. For
Wednesday/Wednesday night, a second cold crosses the region on
Wednesday, positioned over eastern VA/central NC by early Wednesday
evening. High pressure continues over much of the central US, and
over southern FL. For Thursday/Thursday night, a cold front/trough
will be located along the east coast early Thursday evening. High
pressure will extend from MI south into the Gulf Coast states,
curving into souther FL.

A look at the 29 Jun 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures are expected to average +17C across the
region on Tuesday through Thursday.

The NAEFS Mean Integrated Water Vapor Transport reaches a maximum
between 400 and 500 units across eastern parts of the area Tuesday
afternoon coincident to the passage of the cold front. These values
correspond to the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-year CFSR
climatology.

The above weather patterns offer the following forecast. Tuesday
will likely be active with showers and thunderstorms. Unlike recent
days when storms have formed without any substantial forcing
mechanism, the passage of the front through atmosphere that will
still be rich with instability and available moisture should yield
plenty of organized convection. Additionally, the Storm Prediction
Center current has our entire region outlooked on Tuesday for a
Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorm potential. Damaging wind gusts
are the biggest threat for this day.

On Wednesday, the next cold front crosses the region. However, the
best instability and available moisture will have been shunted to
the east of the area, in advance of Tuesday`s feature. Convection
associated with this second front will be focused primarily over the
far eastern portion of the area where the location of the front will
coincide with peak heating of the day.

For Thursday, high pressure over the region is expected to provide a
day without showers or storms. However, temperatures will continue
to be warm side for this time of year.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Monday...

Key Points:

1. Little to no precipitation expected Friday and Saturday.
2. Return of isolated to scattered showers/storms central and west
on Sunday.
3. Above normal temperatures through the period.

A look a the 29 Jun 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Friday/Friday night, the east coast trough moving
to over the Canadian maritimes. The central CONUS ridge becomes less
amplified, and shifts east to over the Mississippi Valley. A trough
remains situated over the Pacific Northwest. For Saturday/Saturday
night, ridging shifts farther east to over our region. A trough
remains over far western CONUS, and there are hints of a shortwave
trough over the Northern Plains States. For Sunday, ridging
continues over our region and into most of central CONUS. A trough
remains situated over far western CONUS.

At the surface, for Friday/Friday night, high pressure will be
centered over the mid-Atlantic and New England regions of the
country. A trough will be developing over the Northern Plains
states. For Saturday/Saturday night, high pressure remains over the
mid-Atlantic region while a trough approaches the Great Lakes
region. For Sunday, high pressure remains over our region while a
trough/front heads southwest from southern Quebec into the mid-West.

A look at the 29 Jun 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures are expected to average +17C on Friday
and +18C on Saturday and Sunday.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. High
pressure over the region will provide for above normal temperatures
with little to no probability of precipitation. Perhaps on Sunday,
with the approach of a front from the northwest, and the center of
the high shifting farther east, enough moisture may pool across the
area for diurnal shower/storm development across mainly central and
western sections of the area.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

Other than patchy fog this morning, conditions should remain
VFR through late morning and into early afternoon. Confidence on
any particular terminal fogging in is rather low, so have at
least mentioned brief vsby reductions for a few hours at each
terminal.

Overall VFR continue through this afternoon and into tonight
except for areas of afternoon showers and thunderstorms capable
of very heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Expect brief reductions
in visibility with any storm. Some fog may begin to develop
again late in the current 24 hour TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Daily shower and thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday,
but a frontal passage will then bring drier conditions back to
the region for Wednesday and Thursday. VFR conditions are
expected outside of morning valley fog Wednesday through
next weekend, with only isolated chances for showers and
thunderstorms expected late in the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BMG