431
FXUS61 KRNK 091030
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
630 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching front stalls to the north today through the rest
of the week, which will allow for an increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. Hot conditions are expected today,
with slightly cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 625 AM EDT Wednesday...

No significant changes to the forecast this morning. Clouds are
already increasing around 12 to 25 kft and fog is dissipating.

Looking at all possibilities for severe weather this afternoon
and evening, with supercells supporting large hail, damaging
winds, and a tornado or two. Tornadoes would be a concern
especially ahead of any QLCS lines that form, or within breaks
in the lines.


See previous discussion below...


As of 210 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Warm and stormy, with a Flood Watch in effect for areas
mainly along/east of a line from Natural Bridge in VA to Pilot
Mountain, NC.

2) Some storms this afternoon and evening may be strong to
severe, with damaging winds and localized flooding the main
threats.

We remain in southwest flow aloft today and tonight, with a mean
trough approaching from the west late. This extra support will
fuel strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
with damaging winds and localized flooding being the main
concerns. A poorly defined surface boundary will enter the
forecast area and will also be a focus for training storms and
stronger updrafts.

About 2500 SBCAPE is forecast for the mountains and foothills,
with perhaps over 4000 J/kg SBCAPE forecast for the Piedmonts
of VA and NC this afternoon and evening, due to temperatures
there in the low 90s, and dew points around 70-75 degrees. It
will be warm and muggy everywhere, becoming cloudier throughout
the day. Long skinny CAPE and not as much dry air as usual may
hamper DCAPE values, but still expecting about 500 J/kg+ in the
Piedmont. Water loading should also accelerate downdrafts and
add to the overall wind threat. The HRRR neural network really
highlights the piedmont today for severe weather.

CAMs are trying to show a few supercells develop this afternoon
before any line segments really gain momentum. With turning in
the low levels and some pockets of lower LCL heights, am
concerned we could see a tornado or two in addition to damaging
winds and large hail.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of the Piedmonts of
VA and NC and has been extended slightly. PWATs remain above 2
inches there, higher than the daily max for the day in
Blacksburg, but about even or slightly above for Greenboro`s
daily max. The National Water Prediction Service and WPC
indicate a Slight to Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall over
the area, noting the likelihood of a linear organization to the
storms, recent rainfall in the last 7 days, and reduced FFG
values. Cells should be moving around 15-20 mph, but training
storms will be an issue. Could see 1 to 2 inch totals with
localized higher amounts to 4 to 6 inches.

We remain just shy of heat advisory criteria, but there may be
isolated spots that reach 105F briefly in Southside VA and the
NC piedmont. It will be plenty hot though.

Tonight, we will remain mostly cloudy, with only a slightly
drier and cooler air mass moving in. Dense fog and stratus are
forecast for much of the area. Lows will range from the low 60s
in Burke`s Garden to the low 70s in the piedmont Thursday
morning.

Confidence in the near term is moderate to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Afternoon storm chances continue, but decrease each day into
the weekend.

2) Temperatures remain right around normal for this time of year.

Thursday will be another stormy afternoon across the RNK CWA, as
high dewpoints along with diurnal heating will allow for storms
to develop in the afternoon. At the same time, an upper-level
shortwave trough will move into the Mid-Atlantic, further
enhancing lift, and allowing for widespread coverage of storms,
some of which could be severe. SPC currently has our area under
a Marginal risk for Thursday, with a Slight Risk for most of our
NC counties and into the south-central piedmont of VA. Damaging
winds will again be the main threat. Storms are expected to
last well into the evening, due to the extra support.

The upper-trough passes through Thursday night, with an upper
ridge over the southeast taking over. A stalled frontal
boundary will remain well to our north in PA/OH, with a warm
southerly wind driving in moisture to the area. Afternoon storms
will again be possible for both Friday and Saturday, but the
upper-ridge will limit storm coverage due to dry air aloft
keeping storms short-lived and pulse-like. Storms each day will
begin to wane after sunset, before dissipating overnight.

Rain totals through the period will be modest, mainly due to the
high coverage of storms on Thursday afternoon. Areas along/west
of the Blue Ridge can expect between 0.25-0.50". The Piedmont
locations could see up to an inch due to the heaviest storms
likely forming along the Blue Ridge and moving east during peak
heating each day. Higher amounts will be possible in the
heaviest storms, especially any that are slow moving or
training. Flash flooding will also continue to be an issue,
particularly where heavy rain has fallen in the past week, such
as in the eastern Piedmont. WPC has the entire area under a
slight risk for Excessive Rainfall on Thursday.

Temperatures will remain right around normal for mid July, with
highs each day in the upper 70s for the mountains, with mid to
upper 80s across the Piedmont. Lows will also remain
consistent, mainly in the 60s each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) A stagnant pattern keeps daily afternoon storms possible
through the entire period.

2) Temperatures remain consistent, right around normal.

The upper-level ridge across the Deep South strengthens late
weekend into early next week and slowly slides westward.
Clockwise flow around the high will bring moisture and waves of
vorticity into our area early next week. A mostly zonal pattern
will continue, with no large systems expected. However, these
waves of low pressure will continue to instigate daily afternoon
storms across our area. A Bermuda High will continue to drive
surface moisture into the Mid- Atlantic, with diurnal heating
continuing to be the main forcing mechanism. Models differ on
how much coverage of storms will occur next week, therefore,
PoPs are kept around 40-50% each day on average. This stagnant
pattern continues until late next week.

Temperatures remain very consistent, due to the pattern
remaining relatively unchanged. Highs remain around 80 for the
higher elevations each day, with upper 80s to near 90 for the
Piedmont. Lows will remain in the 60s each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

The remainder of this evening`s convection was moving east of
LYH early this morning. Fog and stratus are expected across
the area, with all but ROA seeing some this morning. LWB and BCB
will have dense fog. Conditions improve after 13Z, but cloud
cover increases at all levels throughout the day. Convection
will fire along and west of the Blue Ridge by 18Z or earlier,
with strong to severe storms most likely over Southside VA and
the NC piedmont, although chances were high enough to include at
all TAF sites.

Another round of fog and stratus is likely tonight once the
convection diminishes.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The forecast continues in a typical summertime weather pattern
with daily chance of showers/storms during the peak heating
hours each day through the weekend. Morning fog will also be
possible each day, especially at LWB and BCB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for VAZ033>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for NCZ004>006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SH