730
FXUS61 KRNK 180541
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
141 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the mid-Atlantic today reaching the
coast by Monday morning. High pressure builds in midweek with
less humid and cooler air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 125 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Keeping storms in the forecast today but coverage again looks
scattered. Could see a few strong storms in the Piedmont.

Lee trough and shortwave energy will keep a few showers around
early this morning and will likely see more of coverage today
with the front, but locations and high-res model solutions
indicate a scattered pattern with best coverage looking to be
across the Mountain Empire of SW VA into the NC mountains and
across the Piedmont. Storm parameters are leaning toward a small
chance of severe in the Piedmont mainly east of Lynchburg-
Martinsville.

Storms should become less by dusk, though as upper trough axis
shifts to the area late tonight with upslope low level flow
scattered showers will likely linger through the night in the
WV/far SW VA and NC mountains.

Should see mix of sun and clouds today with more sun east, so
highs will again be close to normal in the Piedmont with upper
80s, but more clouds in the mountains should have highs in the
70s, except some lower 80s in the New River Valley.

Until the front really clears east, the drier air lags until
after this period, so airmass will not change too much tonight
with lows in the 60s.

Forecast confidence is high on sky cover/temps/winds, but
average on storm coverage and severe threat.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Showers and storms persist through Monday.

2) Dry and quieter weather starts Tuesday.

A steady trough will maintain its axis over the east coast
throughout the weekend. Even after a front passes through the
area late on Saturday, chances for storms over the entire CWA
will remain. Forecast soundings do indicate some modest
instability, which could force some storms to be strong or
severe. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms is outlooked
for the eastern half of the region both Sunday and Monday. As
the trough shifts and places itself to our east, there will be
some stronger northwesterly winds that blow through the area.
Gusts will be enough to knock off your hat, up to 25 MPH in more
mountainous areas. With cooler than normal weather bringing
highs in the 60s for far southwest VA and southeastern WV, it
will be a sample of fall weather; cool and blustery.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Dry and cool weather continues.

The second half of next week will be dominated by a zone of
surface high pressure that almost rotates around southwest VA.
It will begin filling into the OH Valley Tuesday, and over the
course of the next several days will circle around to PA and
southern New England, and then almost fuse with another zone of
high pressure off the Atlantic coast, stretching over most of
the southeast CONUS. Heading into the weekend, an additional
mid-level subtropical anti-cyclonic gyre will extend from the
southern plains. As a result, most of next week will be dry,
with mostly clear skies, and fairly cool keeping highs in the
70s for most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Sunday...

A shower may be close to DAN at the start of the taf period, as
well as LWB/BLF. Should be mainly VFR this morning but low
clouds/fog possible where it rained with higher confidence of
MVFR or lower at BLF/LWB.

All sites should become VFR by 14-15z with scattered/broken
cumulus in the afternoon mixed with high clouds. Frontal
boundary swings across and will have VCTS at all sites, except
ROA/BCB per models showing minimal coverage in these areas
today. Amendments likely with radar trends during the day.

Winds will be southwest to west at 6-11kts after 14z.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Late Sunday night has few showers around LWB/BLF with sub-VFR
ceilings/vsby. Upper trough axis should keep scattered
showers/storms around Monday but looking at mainly VFR through
the week. Exception would be with showers Monday and any late
night fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...WP