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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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730 FXUS61 KRNK 180541 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 141 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves across the mid-Atlantic today reaching the coast by Monday morning. High pressure builds in midweek with less humid and cooler air. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 125 AM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Keeping storms in the forecast today but coverage again looks scattered. Could see a few strong storms in the Piedmont. Lee trough and shortwave energy will keep a few showers around early this morning and will likely see more of coverage today with the front, but locations and high-res model solutions indicate a scattered pattern with best coverage looking to be across the Mountain Empire of SW VA into the NC mountains and across the Piedmont. Storm parameters are leaning toward a small chance of severe in the Piedmont mainly east of Lynchburg- Martinsville. Storms should become less by dusk, though as upper trough axis shifts to the area late tonight with upslope low level flow scattered showers will likely linger through the night in the WV/far SW VA and NC mountains. Should see mix of sun and clouds today with more sun east, so highs will again be close to normal in the Piedmont with upper 80s, but more clouds in the mountains should have highs in the 70s, except some lower 80s in the New River Valley. Until the front really clears east, the drier air lags until after this period, so airmass will not change too much tonight with lows in the 60s. Forecast confidence is high on sky cover/temps/winds, but average on storm coverage and severe threat. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Showers and storms persist through Monday. 2) Dry and quieter weather starts Tuesday. A steady trough will maintain its axis over the east coast throughout the weekend. Even after a front passes through the area late on Saturday, chances for storms over the entire CWA will remain. Forecast soundings do indicate some modest instability, which could force some storms to be strong or severe. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms is outlooked for the eastern half of the region both Sunday and Monday. As the trough shifts and places itself to our east, there will be some stronger northwesterly winds that blow through the area. Gusts will be enough to knock off your hat, up to 25 MPH in more mountainous areas. With cooler than normal weather bringing highs in the 60s for far southwest VA and southeastern WV, it will be a sample of fall weather; cool and blustery. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 210 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: 1) Dry and cool weather continues. The second half of next week will be dominated by a zone of surface high pressure that almost rotates around southwest VA. It will begin filling into the OH Valley Tuesday, and over the course of the next several days will circle around to PA and southern New England, and then almost fuse with another zone of high pressure off the Atlantic coast, stretching over most of the southeast CONUS. Heading into the weekend, an additional mid-level subtropical anti-cyclonic gyre will extend from the southern plains. As a result, most of next week will be dry, with mostly clear skies, and fairly cool keeping highs in the 70s for most of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 135 AM EDT Sunday... A shower may be close to DAN at the start of the taf period, as well as LWB/BLF. Should be mainly VFR this morning but low clouds/fog possible where it rained with higher confidence of MVFR or lower at BLF/LWB. All sites should become VFR by 14-15z with scattered/broken cumulus in the afternoon mixed with high clouds. Frontal boundary swings across and will have VCTS at all sites, except ROA/BCB per models showing minimal coverage in these areas today. Amendments likely with radar trends during the day. Winds will be southwest to west at 6-11kts after 14z. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Late Sunday night has few showers around LWB/BLF with sub-VFR ceilings/vsby. Upper trough axis should keep scattered showers/storms around Monday but looking at mainly VFR through the week. Exception would be with showers Monday and any late night fog. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...WP