Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
288 FXUS61 KRNK 170651 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 251 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A front will cross the region tonight, bringing an increased chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. This front shifts south of the area by Thursday and Friday allowing for cooler temperatures, but the proximity of the front will keep showers and storms in the forecast through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Temperatures not quite as hot today. 2) Widely scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening. Partly cloudy skies and areas of patchy fog this morning. Should continue to see partly cloud skies through daybreak. Slow moving front is still situated over the Midwest from Indiana into Illinois and Missouri. Ongoing convection ahead of the front across portions of Kentucky may spread cirrus into the region later this morning. Regardless, should have enough breaks in cloud cover to promote strong surface heating. Highs by the afternoon expected to be in the mid 90s for the Piedmont and mid/upper 80s in the higher elevations. Strong surface heating, combined with increased moisture (i.e. dew points now upper 60s/low 70s) will result in a rather unstable airmass by early afternoon. Should see storms develop by 1pm/2pm and several could be on the strong/severe side capable of producing strong damaging winds. Heavy rainfall also a secondary threat with high ambient moisture in place. Coverage and intensity of storms should begin to dwindle by sunset, but could have some ongoing thunderstorms lingering until midnight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for a cooling trend to take place. 2) A stalled frontal boundary will keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. By Thursday, a cold front will cross Virginia and enter North Carolina. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop in the afternoon, but the risk of severe weather appears lower as the more unstable air heads toward the coast. Nevertheless, some heavy downpours may be possible in the stronger storms. Temperatures will notably drop with only highs in the 70s and 80s throughout this time period due to increased cloud cover and cooler air behind the front. The frontal boundary should stall somewhere across central North Carolina on Friday as it becomes parallel with the flow aloft. The models indicate it will remain stuck through the upcoming weekend, so the daily chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue with the highest odds to the south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for chances of showers and thunderstorms each day due to a stalled frontal boundary. 2) Temperatures will remain near normal. A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped across North Carolina to start the new week. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will deepen across the central Mississippi River Valley as it becomes blocked by one ridge over the Rocky Mountains and another over Bermuda. This stagnant synoptic pattern will keep the Mid Atlantic in a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary may buckle northward by Monday and Tuesday when the upper level ridge slides westward towards the coast, which could increase the coverage of storms across the Appalachian Mountains. Temperatures should stay near seasonable values into the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday... Mostly VFR this morning, expect for isolated areas of patchy fog. BCB continues to be the only terminal to be impacted by fog and varying vsby/cigs will continue through daybreak for BCB. Confidence is not high, but LWB may also briefly experience sub-VFR from fog near daybreak. Otherwise VFR across much of the region and this should remain the theme through noon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon and storms will be capable of strong winds gusts and very heavy rainfall. Storms could continue into the overnight hours and perhaps valley fog once again late into the valid TAF period. AVIATION OUTLOOK... Front will be slow to exit the region, or be positioned just south of the area into the weekend. This will keep showers and storms in the forecast, especially for areas near and south of the VA/NC border, so at times expect sub-VFR with showers/storms and potential late night fog, otherwise VFR. Confidence in the extended aviation scenario is moderate. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...BMG