962
FXUS61 KRNK 171422
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1022 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will cross the region tonight, bringing an increased
chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. This front
shifts south of the area by Thursday and Friday allowing for
cooler temperatures, but the proximity of the front will keep
showers and storms in the forecast through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1015 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Temperatures not quite as hot today.

2) Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening.

Have updated the probability of precipitation for the rest of
the morning to better reflect current radar trends. No other
changes made at this time.


Previous Discussion
As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday...

Partly cloudy skies and areas of patchy fog this morning.
Should continue to see partly cloud skies through daybreak. Slow
moving front is still situated over the Midwest from Indiana
into Illinois and Missouri. Ongoing convection ahead of the
front across portions of Kentucky may spread cirrus into the
region later this morning. Regardless, should have enough breaks
in cloud cover to promote strong surface heating. Highs by the
afternoon expected to be in the mid 90s for the Piedmont and
mid/upper 80s in the higher elevations.

Strong surface heating, combined with increased moisture (i.e.
dew points now upper 60s/low 70s) will result in a rather
unstable airmass by early afternoon. Should see storms develop
by 1pm/2pm and several could be on the strong/severe side
capable of producing strong damaging winds. Heavy rainfall also
a secondary threat with high ambient moisture in place.

Coverage and intensity of storms should begin to dwindle by
sunset, but could have some ongoing thunderstorms lingering
until midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a cooling trend to take place.

2) A stalled frontal boundary will keep the chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day.

By Thursday, a cold front will cross Virginia and enter North
Carolina. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop in the
afternoon, but the risk of severe weather appears lower as the more
unstable air heads toward the coast. Nevertheless, some heavy
downpours may be possible in the stronger storms. Temperatures will
notably drop with only highs in the 70s and 80s throughout this time
period due to increased cloud cover and cooler air behind the front.
The frontal boundary should stall somewhere across central North
Carolina on Friday as it becomes parallel with the flow aloft. The
models indicate it will remain stuck through the upcoming weekend,
so the daily chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue with
the highest odds to the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for chances of showers and thunderstorms each
day due to a stalled frontal boundary.

2) Temperatures will remain near normal.

A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped across North Carolina
to start the new week. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will deepen
across the central Mississippi River Valley as it becomes blocked by
one ridge over the Rocky Mountains and another over Bermuda. This
stagnant synoptic pattern will keep the Mid Atlantic in a daily
chance of showers and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary may buckle
northward by Monday and Tuesday when the upper level ridge slides
westward towards the coast, which could increase the coverage of
storms across the Appalachian Mountains. Temperatures should stay
near seasonable values into the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Wednesday...

Mostly VFR this morning, except for isolated areas of patchy
fog. BCB continues to be the only terminal to be impacted by fog
and varying vsby/cigs will continue through 1200z/8am for BCB.

Otherwise VFR across much of the region and this should remain
the theme through noon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by
early afternoon and storms will be capable of strong winds
gusts and very heavy rainfall. Storms could continue into the
overnight hours and perhaps valley fog once again late into the
valid TAF period. Have added fog for BLF/LWB/BCB as a more
widespread chance of rainfall has increased confidence of a
little more widespread fog development early Thursday morning.


AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Front will be slow to exit the region, or be positioned just
south of the area into the weekend. This will keep showers and
storms in the forecast, especially for areas near and south of
the VA/NC border, so at times expect sub-VFR with showers/storms
and potential late night fog, otherwise VFR.

Confidence in the extended aviation scenario is moderate.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...AMS/BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG