Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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222 FXUS61 KRNK 181041 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 641 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A front moves across the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas into tonight, then shifts south of the area by Friday allowing for cooler temperatures, but the proximity of the front will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Front crosses the region today. 2) Heavy rain and thunderstorms possible again this afternoon. Rain and thunderstorm activity has mostly subsided this morning with only a few remaining showers spread across different portions of the area. Main surface front still remains draped across Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee and will only make slow progress east through this evening. An area of thunderstorm over Kentucky this morning will slowly progress east and should arrive into western portions of the CWA by daybreak. This weak wave will be the focus for regeneration of afternoon storms. Although skies likely to be mostly cloudy, some breaks over the eastern areas may occur leading to pockets of high instability into the VA/NC Piedmont. This zone along and south of the VA/NC has the best chance to see thunderstorm activity, with some storms strong to severe. Storms will be capable of strong damaging winds and very heavy rainfall leading to areas of localized flooding. Front stalls just south of the VA/NC border tonight and showers and possibly thunderstorm could continue until midnight for the southern portions of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 115 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for a daily chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms due to a stalled frontal boundary. 2) Temperatures will remain near seasonable values. A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped over North Carolina during Friday and the upcoming weekend. Consequently, scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop every afternoon and evening during this time period. Friday appears to offer the lowest coverage due to less unstable air in place across Virginia and West Virginia. However, the instability should begin to creep upward despite ongoing cloud cover during the weekend to increase the coverage of convection. Heavy downpours will be possible in any of the stronger storms. Temperatures will only reach the 70s and 80s for afternoon highs with generally 60s for morning lows. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 115 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for the daily chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms to continue into the next work week. 2) Little change in temperatures are expected with values staying near normal. The forecast will continue like a broken record into the new work week with daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms and near normal temperatures. A stalled frontal boundary will remain trapped between an upper level trough over the central Mississippi River Valley and an upper level ridge over Bermuda. The ridge may try to slide westward during this time period to push the frontal boundary slowly northward. However, the frontal boundary will still remain draped across the Mid Atlantic by Wednesday. With each passing day of this stagnant synoptic pattern, the concerns about drought are ending and turning more towards concerns about flooding from repeated rounds of heavy downpours. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 640 AM EDT Thursday... A mix of LIFR to VFR across the area this morning and wide ranges of flight categories are expected to continue for another hour or so. Should see some improvements by 12z/8am, but could still have some areas of MVFR cigs remain across the mountains until noon. Rain approaching from the west this morning and another round of storms are expected to develop for locations along and east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon. Strong winds and very heavy rainfall are the main concerns. Sub-VFR again tonight with lowering cigs and fog. AVIATION OUTLOOK... Front will be slow to exit the region, or be positioned just south of the area into the weekend. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area on Friday through Monday. Expect sub-VFR conditions with any of these storms. Late night fog with result in IFR to MVFR visibility, otherwise VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...BMG