920
FXUS61 KRNK 191036
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
636 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front over the Mid Atlantic will briefly drop into the Carolinas
today then return north tonight and Saturday. The weather
pattern stays active through the beginning of next week with
periods of showers and thunderstorms and gradually warming
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

Stalled front brings continued chance of rain and
thunderstorms.

Fairly quiet this morning across most of the area with only a
few remaining downpours along the Blue Ridge Foothills in
southern Virginia. These are likely associated with the stalled
front that is roughly along the VA/NC border.

Not much movement of the front today, but should see it push a
bit further south into the Carolinas during the day, but it will
retreat back north again later tonight. Very little
rain/thunderstorm activity is expected through this morning and
into early afternoon, but as the front begins to drift north
again, will see better coverage of heavier downpours tonight.

Anything that does develop will be slow-moving and could produce
isolated areas of flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a daily chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms due to a stalled frontal boundary.

2) Temperatures will start a little below normal to start the
weekend but trend back upward.

A stalled frontal boundary will stay draped along the North Carolina
and Virginia border throughout the upcoming weekend. It continues to
remain trapped between an upper level trough over the Great Lakes
and a blocking upper level ridge over Bermuda that will keep the
atmospheric pattern stagnant for the foreseeable future. As a result,
the chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms should
persist. Heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible in the
stronger storms each day. Prevalent cloud cover should keep
temperatures a little below normal on Saturday with highs mainly in
the lower 70s to the lower 80s. Temperatures should rise a few
degrees and get closer to normal by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 110 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for the daily chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms to continue through the work week.

2) The risk of flooding will increase with each passing day from
repeated rounds of heavy rainfall.

No appreciable changes in the synoptic pattern can be seen in the
models for the middle of the week as a frontal boundary remains
stuck across the Mid Atlantic. Although the blocking upper level
ridge over Bermuda will try to retrograde westward towards the
coast, it may only help to push the stalled frontal boundary a
little northward. With each passing day of this stagnant pattern,
the risk of flooding will continue to rise for any locations that
have repeated rounds of heavy rainfall from the daily threat of
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The models still do
not offer much hope of any significant progress even by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Friday...

Variable flight categories from VFR to LIFR this morning due to
areas of fog. Should see improvements by 12z/8am but some MVFR
cigs could linger through late morning.

A chance of evening downpours possible, associated with a
stalled front nearby. Best chance will be in the southern Blue
Ridge from Roanoke southward. Scattered rain and thunderstorms
could linger through midnight.

Sub-VFR seems probable again tonight with fog developing once
again.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Front returns north Saturday. The weather pattern stays active
through the beginning of next week with periods of MVFR showers
and thunderstorms.

Late night fog with result in IFR to MVFR visibility, otherwise
VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG