642
FXUS61 KRLX 151953
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides east of the Appalachians tonight. A
combination of a warm front and cold front brings showers and
thunderstorms, early Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 PM Thursday...

Did a quick update over the next 12 hours to insert some low-end
POPs over our northern and northwestern counties in case some of
the returns showing on radar reach the ground. Also boosted
cloud cover a bit in concert with that change.


As of 145 PM Thursday...

A strong low pressure system moves east across the Great Lakes late
Friday. Meanwhile, a warm front and cold front will extend south and
southwest to affect the OH valley and WV Friday and Friday night.

Surface high pressure shifts east over the Atlantic coast tonight,
allowing the warm front to lift north across the area during the
overnight hours. Moisture quickly increases ahead of an approaching
cold front with PWATs exceeding 2.0 inches. The moisture, SB CAPE
exceeding 2800 J/kg, and deep layered shear from 35 to 45 knots make
the environment very unstable capable to produce strong to
severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. SPC has
outlooked most of the area under a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms. However, high PWATs will likely water load the
updrafts, minimizing the hail threat, but increasing the a heavy
downpour threat for localized minor flooding issues. WPC has
the area under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for
Friday. Models show a gradient in the QPF expected with an axis
of precipitation with more than 1 inch along and west of the OH
River, ranging to 0.25 inches along the eastern mountains.

With increasing moisture, it will feel rather muggy tonight with
temperatures struggling to drop into the upper 60s. Cloudiness
and cooling showers will keep Friday`s afternoon temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging to the lower
70s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1229 PM Thursday...

Upper trough and low will continue to gradually move east through
the area on Saturday. A front associated with surface low across the
north will move towards the area Saturday evening, helping to
reinvigorate showers and storms, some of which could organize and
become strong to severe, with a damaging wind threat. Storms will
contain brief heavy downpours, and could create a localized flooding
issue, mainly in low lying/poor drainage areas. Additional showers
and storms are expected on Sunday as the upper trough continues to
move east across the area, particularly during peak heating
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1229 PM Thursday...

Unsettled weather continues into Monday as area remains under the
influence of the upper trough. Conditions start to improve as we
progress into the middle of the week, as high pressure briefly
builds into the area, and the upper trough moves east, with a
northwesterly flow setting up. This will result in dry conditions
taking hold, and temperatures near to or slightly below normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 143 PM Thursday...

Surface high pressure slides east of the Appalachians tonight,
allowing a warm front to lift north across our area during the
overnight hours. This front will bring chances for light showers
early Friday morning, becoming more widespread with thunderstorms
Friday afternoon and evening. Guidance suggests MVFR ceilings
across the Tri-state area to affect HTS under light rain,
spreading northeast to affect PKB and CRW Friday morning. As
convection becomes stronger, brief periods of IFR conditions
will be possible along showers and storms. Heavy downpours and
strong gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms.

Light and variable winds become calm tonight. South to
southwest winds less than 10 knots will prevail Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may or may not try to develop at EKN at
the last minute overnight tonight, before clouds increase and
thicken sufficiently. Timing and extend of MVFR/IFR conditions
due to convection may vary from forecast on Friday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible under showers and storms Friday into
Saturday. IFR conditions also possible under low stratus Friday
night into Saturday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ