319
FXUS61 KRLX 161428
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1028 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A combination of a warm front and cold front courtesy of an
upper-level disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms
today through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1026 AM Friday...

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident on radar
imagery entering SE OH and NE KY at this time. Hi-res CAMs
suggest convection will increase in coverage and intensity with
a second batch approaching from the west. Expecting an increase
in showers and storm activity this afternoon aided by diurnal
heating. Therefore, expanded likely PoPs further north, and
categorical PoPs across the southern sections through this
evening. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 645 AM Friday...

Made minor tweaks to POPs this morning as the arrival of showers
and thunderstorms draped along the warm front encroach on parts
of southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky. This sets the stage
for off and on activity today as the warm front drifts
northward. Overnight activity was proven to be light in regards
to rainfall, with most spots that received rain only observing a
few hundredths at best for accumulations. This will remain the
trend initially, before heavy dumpers with thunderstorms become
more prevalent in the next few hours. Otherwise, temperatures
remain on track this morning under low stratus.

As of 308 AM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast today as the
tail of an upper level disturbance swings into the area.
Accompanying shortwave energy will support waves of activity
through the period, starting early this morning with light
showers passing through the lower Ohio Valley. Local
observations upstream suggest very little, if any, raindrops
have reached the ground and radar indicated precipitation rates
support that notion as well. This first round is anticipated to
continue to weaken and diminish over the course of the predawn
hours.

The next wave presses in later this morning into the afternoon,
with better potential for measurable precipitation advancing in
from the west. Hi-res CAMs, while varying with onset arrival
time, slates isolated to scattered showers and storms entering
the western flank of the forecast area around mid-morning, then
gradually pivoting through the rest of the Central Appalachians
through the afternoon.

A few areas of uncertainty exist with how convection will
behave today, one of which being how early morning activity at
the time of writing out in the western Ohio Valley will evolve
as it glides along a warm front. Another factor will be the
canopy of overcast skies anticipated to hover all day today,
coupled with the return of active weather, keeping afternoon
temperatures cooler than central guidance renderings. The severe
risk has been trimmed back to west of the Ohio River for today
compared to previous outlooks from SPC, likely due to clouds
masking the area and limiting daytime heating. Convection will
have to rely solely on pre-frontal southerly flow to support
sustainability, which model instability depicts lackluster
values for today. Still think decent downpours could accompany
activity today as moisture levels rise, with the occasional
strong wind gust associated with healthy storms that proceed
into the Ohio River Valley also being possible.

Precipitation chances will oscillate for this evening into the
overnight hours, first quieting down for a brief period of time,
then ramping back up late tonight and into the start of the
weekend ahead of a cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

An upper low over The Great Lakes region will allow a trough
and cold front to move across the area Saturday. As a result,
another round of showers and thunderstorms will ensue, enhanced
by the frontal passage.

Saturday looks to be a typical, summer, marginal severe day.
Some thunderstorms could be on the strong to severe side. CAPE
will be between 1,500 and 2,500 J/Kg, with locally higher values
possible across SE Ohio. Wind shear between 30 and 40 knots
leading a few more organized storms, particularly along and
ahead of the cold front in the afternoon. Damaging winds will be
the main concern with any storms, as will heavy downpours.

Overall, rain is much needed across the area with the drought
ongoing, so the risk for flooding is low. However, localized
flash flooding could occur in low- lying areas or locations with
poor drainage, especially with repeated rounds of heavy
rainfall. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across
the area for Saturday.

Even with the cold front to our east on Sunday, the upper-low to our
north will keep the trough over the region allowing for more showers
and thunderstorms during the day. Temperatures on Saturday will be
above normal, with upper 80s and lower 90s expected in the lowlands;
70s and 80s in the mountains. Cold front will knock temperatures
below normal on Sunday, with high 70s and lower 80s across the
lowlands; 60s and 70s in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...

Upper-trough still hangs around Monday keeping the active weather
regime in play. The current consensus shows that conditions
will finally settle down on Tuesday as the persistent trough
finally erodes courtesy of very strong, nearly 600MB high
pressure over the SW CONUS.

Temperatures will be much below normal Monday and Tuesday, with the
lowlands forecasted to be in the 70s to around 80 on both days; the
mountains look to remain in the 60s to the lower 70s. A warming
trend will occur throughout the week and drier conditions will
take hold as high pressure starts to nudge in at the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms forming along a warm front this
morning will slide northward today, inflicting on and off flight
restrictions. VCTS will carry through the majority of the
afternoon and evening across all TAF sites before convection is
progged to taper down late tonight. Additional tempo groups may
be warranted pending radar trends this morning and afternoon.

As precipitation wanes late tonight, low stratus and pockets of
river valley fog will develop. This will fester through the
overnight period and into early Saturday morning.

Winds will become out of the southwest today in the wake of the
warm frontal passage. Some instances of breezy gusts of up to
15kts may be observed this afternoon outside of strong
thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR/IFR conditions
due to convection may vary throughout today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible within showers and storms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/LTC
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...MEK/ARJ