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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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319 FXUS61 KRLX 161428 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1028 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A combination of a warm front and cold front courtesy of an upper-level disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms today through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1026 AM Friday... Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident on radar imagery entering SE OH and NE KY at this time. Hi-res CAMs suggest convection will increase in coverage and intensity with a second batch approaching from the west. Expecting an increase in showers and storm activity this afternoon aided by diurnal heating. Therefore, expanded likely PoPs further north, and categorical PoPs across the southern sections through this evening. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 645 AM Friday... Made minor tweaks to POPs this morning as the arrival of showers and thunderstorms draped along the warm front encroach on parts of southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky. This sets the stage for off and on activity today as the warm front drifts northward. Overnight activity was proven to be light in regards to rainfall, with most spots that received rain only observing a few hundredths at best for accumulations. This will remain the trend initially, before heavy dumpers with thunderstorms become more prevalent in the next few hours. Otherwise, temperatures remain on track this morning under low stratus. As of 308 AM Friday... Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast today as the tail of an upper level disturbance swings into the area. Accompanying shortwave energy will support waves of activity through the period, starting early this morning with light showers passing through the lower Ohio Valley. Local observations upstream suggest very little, if any, raindrops have reached the ground and radar indicated precipitation rates support that notion as well. This first round is anticipated to continue to weaken and diminish over the course of the predawn hours. The next wave presses in later this morning into the afternoon, with better potential for measurable precipitation advancing in from the west. Hi-res CAMs, while varying with onset arrival time, slates isolated to scattered showers and storms entering the western flank of the forecast area around mid-morning, then gradually pivoting through the rest of the Central Appalachians through the afternoon. A few areas of uncertainty exist with how convection will behave today, one of which being how early morning activity at the time of writing out in the western Ohio Valley will evolve as it glides along a warm front. Another factor will be the canopy of overcast skies anticipated to hover all day today, coupled with the return of active weather, keeping afternoon temperatures cooler than central guidance renderings. The severe risk has been trimmed back to west of the Ohio River for today compared to previous outlooks from SPC, likely due to clouds masking the area and limiting daytime heating. Convection will have to rely solely on pre-frontal southerly flow to support sustainability, which model instability depicts lackluster values for today. Still think decent downpours could accompany activity today as moisture levels rise, with the occasional strong wind gust associated with healthy storms that proceed into the Ohio River Valley also being possible. Precipitation chances will oscillate for this evening into the overnight hours, first quieting down for a brief period of time, then ramping back up late tonight and into the start of the weekend ahead of a cold front. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday... An upper low over The Great Lakes region will allow a trough and cold front to move across the area Saturday. As a result, another round of showers and thunderstorms will ensue, enhanced by the frontal passage. Saturday looks to be a typical, summer, marginal severe day. Some thunderstorms could be on the strong to severe side. CAPE will be between 1,500 and 2,500 J/Kg, with locally higher values possible across SE Ohio. Wind shear between 30 and 40 knots leading a few more organized storms, particularly along and ahead of the cold front in the afternoon. Damaging winds will be the main concern with any storms, as will heavy downpours. Overall, rain is much needed across the area with the drought ongoing, so the risk for flooding is low. However, localized flash flooding could occur in low- lying areas or locations with poor drainage, especially with repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across the area for Saturday. Even with the cold front to our east on Sunday, the upper-low to our north will keep the trough over the region allowing for more showers and thunderstorms during the day. Temperatures on Saturday will be above normal, with upper 80s and lower 90s expected in the lowlands; 70s and 80s in the mountains. Cold front will knock temperatures below normal on Sunday, with high 70s and lower 80s across the lowlands; 60s and 70s in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday... Upper-trough still hangs around Monday keeping the active weather regime in play. The current consensus shows that conditions will finally settle down on Tuesday as the persistent trough finally erodes courtesy of very strong, nearly 600MB high pressure over the SW CONUS. Temperatures will be much below normal Monday and Tuesday, with the lowlands forecasted to be in the 70s to around 80 on both days; the mountains look to remain in the 60s to the lower 70s. A warming trend will occur throughout the week and drier conditions will take hold as high pressure starts to nudge in at the surface. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 645 AM Friday... Showers and thunderstorms forming along a warm front this morning will slide northward today, inflicting on and off flight restrictions. VCTS will carry through the majority of the afternoon and evening across all TAF sites before convection is progged to taper down late tonight. Additional tempo groups may be warranted pending radar trends this morning and afternoon. As precipitation wanes late tonight, low stratus and pockets of river valley fog will develop. This will fester through the overnight period and into early Saturday morning. Winds will become out of the southwest today in the wake of the warm frontal passage. Some instances of breezy gusts of up to 15kts may be observed this afternoon outside of strong thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR/IFR conditions due to convection may vary throughout today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions possible within showers and storms this weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/LTC NEAR TERM...MEK SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...MEK/ARJ