777
FXUS61 KRLX 100003
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
803 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The heat continues through this evening. Remnants of Beryl cross
tonight into Wednesday. The weather pattern then settles into a
typical summer regime, with mainly diurnal storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 PM Tuesday...

Isolated thunderstorms will continue to move across portions of
the area this evening. Have freshened up temperatures and
dewpoints to better reflect current observations. Otherwise, the
near term forecast remains on track.

As of 1205 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:

  * Heat index values of 100 degrees and higher across a bulk
    of the forecast area this afternoon.

  * Excessive Heat Warning for Boone, Cabell, Clay, Kanawha,
    Lincoln, Logan and Putnam Counties from noon until 8 PM this
    evening.

  * Heat Advisory in effect for a bulk of West Virginia,
    northeastern Kentucky, southern Ohio and southwest Virginia
    from noon until 8 PM this evening.

Heat headlines continue across most of the lowlands through 8
PM this evening.

The center of post-tropical cyclone Beryl will move northeast
across the OH valley overnight tonight. This system will push a
cold front, which should arrive to the area by 8 AM Wednesday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms could develop ahead and along
this front through Wednesday evening as the system exits
northeast. Model consensus suggest most of the precipitation
activity may occur west of our area, keeping our area mostly dry
tonight.

There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across portions of
southeast OH, central and northern WV through Wednesday morning.

Another muggy night is on tap, with dewpoints in the mid to lower
70s and temperatures in the mid to lower 70s. The clouds, showers
and dry air behind Beryl will bring cooler temperatures Wednesday
afternoon, generally in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands,
ranging into the mid 70s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1156 AM Tuesday...

The center of Beryl`s remnants will track northeastward from the
midwest to the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
well outside of our area. Beryl will be a post-tropical cyclone at
that point, with cooler and drier air wrapping around the backside
of the low. The associated cold front will pass through the middle
Ohio Valley and central Appalachians early Thursday morning. This
should give us a bit of relief from the uncomfortable weather with
highs expected to be in the mid 80s across the lowlands and the
upper 70s to low 80s in the mountains Thursday afternoon. Dew points
will drop into the lower to middle 60s, so the air won`t feel as
muggy. Thursday should be dry for the most part, but a spotty shower
or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over the mountains Thursday
afternoon as a weak shortwave approaches from the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1157 AM Tuesday...

A subtle ridge will try to build back into the forecast area Friday,
which should help temperatures reach the lower 90s again across the
lowlands. A southern stream of energy will track northward along the
eastern seaboard, but this feature should be far enough east with
minimal impacts expected over our region. The WV northern mountains
may see a few showers and a thunderstorm Friday, but chances should
remain fairly low (30-40% PoPs) with the bulk of the moisture
farther east.

A warm, summer-like pattern will begin this weekend, lasting into
next week. Expect a mostly dry weekend, but diurnal rain chances
will increase again next week as rounds of shortwave energy approach
from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM Tuesday...

Isolated showers and storms remain possible tonight as a system
moves by to the west. More showers and storms are expected with the
passage of a cold front on Wednesday. While much of the area
should experience VFR conditions during the TAF period,
occasional MVFR/IFR restrictions could occur in rain and storms.

Winds will be light and variable tonight, then increase early
Wednesday. South to southwest winds are expected for Wednesday,
with 20-30kt gusts possible through the majority of the day.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers/thunderstorms
may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 07/10/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in afternoon storms this weekend or early
next week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JLB
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JLB