079
FXUS61 KRLX 111717
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
117 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry, cooler weather through early portion
of the week. The next system approaches mid to late week, with
increasing warmth and humidity. Mostly dry through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...

Pattern continues to be dominated by upper low and associated trough
to our north, that will eventually move to the north and east during
the period, resulting in a more west-northwesterly flow for our
area, along with surface high pressure. Dry, and cooler weather as
of late can be expected during the period, with high temperatures
both Sunday and Monday topping out in the lower to mid 80s across
the lowlands, and 60s to 70s across the mountains. In addition, with
the dry air mass in place, relative humidity values could dip into
the 30s for many lowland locations both days. Thankfully winds
should overall remain relatively light, mitigating much in the way
of fire weather concerns. Otherwise, mid and high clouds will
increase as the day progresses on Monday from a weak shortwave to
our west. Some patchy valley fog is possible in deeper mountain
valleys Monday morning but most areas should remain fog free.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1239 PM Sunday...

Dry weather will continue in the short term. Despite a mid-level
shortwave approaching from the west Tuesday into Wednesday, the air
will remain very dry in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, too dry to
support precipitation in the lowlands. Therefore, Tuesday and
Wednesday will be largely rain-free, except for the northern
mountains where just enough moisture may support an afternoon pop-up
shower. Sunshine will mix with patchy clouds both days and
temperatures will reach the middle 80s in the lowlands and lower 80s
in the mountains for afternoon highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1239 PM Sunday...

Models show a brief ridge building over the middle Ohio Valley
Thursday, which will likely support a brief warm up for the end of
the work week. Highs may touch the lower 90s Thursday afternoon
across a few lowland locations. A shortwave will approach from the
west Friday afternoon with more mid-level moisture approaching with
it. Therefore, we expect an increase in clouds, showers, and
thunderstorms Friday and into the weekend across the region.

Unsettled weather is expected next weekend with models predicting an
upper-level low somewhere over the Ohio Valley or lower Great Lakes.
This can lead to more numerous clouds, showers and
thunderstorms for the weekend. Given the high amount of
uncertainty, we will limit PoPs to 50% or below for now.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...

Mainly VFR conditions with light surface winds during the
period. There could be some patchy MVFR/IFR valley fog in
deeper/sheltered mountain valleys generally 08-12Z, but most
sites should remain fog free and confidence in restrictions
associated with fog is low.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog tonight may vary from the
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Widespread IFR is not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...SL