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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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079 FXUS61 KRLX 111717 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 117 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure provides dry, cooler weather through early portion of the week. The next system approaches mid to late week, with increasing warmth and humidity. Mostly dry through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 115 PM Sunday... Pattern continues to be dominated by upper low and associated trough to our north, that will eventually move to the north and east during the period, resulting in a more west-northwesterly flow for our area, along with surface high pressure. Dry, and cooler weather as of late can be expected during the period, with high temperatures both Sunday and Monday topping out in the lower to mid 80s across the lowlands, and 60s to 70s across the mountains. In addition, with the dry air mass in place, relative humidity values could dip into the 30s for many lowland locations both days. Thankfully winds should overall remain relatively light, mitigating much in the way of fire weather concerns. Otherwise, mid and high clouds will increase as the day progresses on Monday from a weak shortwave to our west. Some patchy valley fog is possible in deeper mountain valleys Monday morning but most areas should remain fog free. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1239 PM Sunday... Dry weather will continue in the short term. Despite a mid-level shortwave approaching from the west Tuesday into Wednesday, the air will remain very dry in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, too dry to support precipitation in the lowlands. Therefore, Tuesday and Wednesday will be largely rain-free, except for the northern mountains where just enough moisture may support an afternoon pop-up shower. Sunshine will mix with patchy clouds both days and temperatures will reach the middle 80s in the lowlands and lower 80s in the mountains for afternoon highs. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1239 PM Sunday... Models show a brief ridge building over the middle Ohio Valley Thursday, which will likely support a brief warm up for the end of the work week. Highs may touch the lower 90s Thursday afternoon across a few lowland locations. A shortwave will approach from the west Friday afternoon with more mid-level moisture approaching with it. Therefore, we expect an increase in clouds, showers, and thunderstorms Friday and into the weekend across the region. Unsettled weather is expected next weekend with models predicting an upper-level low somewhere over the Ohio Valley or lower Great Lakes. This can lead to more numerous clouds, showers and thunderstorms for the weekend. Given the high amount of uncertainty, we will limit PoPs to 50% or below for now. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 115 PM Sunday... Mainly VFR conditions with light surface winds during the period. There could be some patchy MVFR/IFR valley fog in deeper/sheltered mountain valleys generally 08-12Z, but most sites should remain fog free and confidence in restrictions associated with fog is low. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... Widespread IFR is not expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/JMC NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...SL