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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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486 FXUS61 KRLX 111325 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 925 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure provides dry, cooler weather through early portion of the week. The next system approaches mid to late week, with increasing warmth and humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 924 AM Sunday... Increased sky cover in the forecast for the first part of today based on current satellite trends. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. As of 430 AM Sunday... Valley fog has developed over southwest VA and far southern WV this morning. However, extent has thus far been restricted by more substantial cloud cover to the north and west. Have updated sky grids to reflect coverage of clouds seen on satellite. As of 120 AM Sunday... Patchy fog could form in some of the valleys early this morning, then any fog that does form will dissipate shortly after sunrise. During the day, mid to high level clouds may drift overhead while a shortwave trough skates by to the north. However, high pressure in control at the surface is expected to sustain dry, quiet weather across the area throughout the near term period. After a cool morning, daytime high temperatures are projected to remain a little below normal with upper 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and mid 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. After sundown, temperatures cool to upper 40s to 50s for tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Sunday... The area remains under west to northwest mid/upper-level flow to start the work week, between a long wave trough axis roughly along the east coast, and long wave ridging building over the plains. Models differ on the track of a short wave trough moving either across or southwest of the area Monday night, but either way, it is not likely to be able to squeeze out enough moisture for precipitation, as high pressure and dry air prevail in the low levels. There is likely to be at least patchy mid and high cloud. Low level moisture will increase on Tuesday, perhaps just enough for shallow diurnal convection over the higher ridges with the help of the elevated heat source effect. Central guidance reflects highs climbing to at least normal come Tuesday. Lows will still be a bit below normal. Nights will not be quite as cool as this weekend, owing in part to the clouds Monday night, but it will still be comfortably cool for sleeping. Dew points will be well down in the 50s, even into the 40s in portions of the area on Monday. With lowland highs in the lower to mid 80s, these low dew points for August spell afternoon relative humidity percentages down into the 30s, and even the 20s in portions of the area. Together with very dry brush wherever it has not rained in some time, this raises concerns for wildland fire potential, but one mitigating factor will be the light winds with high pressure in control. Humidity levels will be a bit higher on Tuesday, but conditions will still be dry. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 AM Sunday... Mid/upper-level west to northwest flow continues through the period, as a long wave trough axis persists roughly along the east coast, and long wave ridging persists over the plains. Nonetheless, the quiet weather of early portion of the week gradually becomes noisier during the latter portion of the week. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes Wednesday drifts eastward across the northeast states late week, as a mid/upper- level short wave trough digs across the midwest and then Great Lakes and lower Ohio Valley, with an associated surface low pressure system, and a surface warm front approaching the forecast area from the southwest. While there may be enough low level moisture for shallow diurnal convection over the higher ridges Wednesday, with the help of the elevated heat source effect, short wave ridging ahead of the next short wave trough is likely to suppress this on Thursday. The short wave, and surface warm front, bring increasing warmth and moisture, with the increasing chance for showers beginning as early as Thursday night. This is stiff-armed by about 24 hours versus 24 hours ago. The highest chance is Friday and Saturday afternoons in maximum heating with the system crossing. Models differ on the timing of the system crossing during these two days, but the best chance for thunderstorms will be during these afternoons as well. PW values may be high enough to support localized heavy downpours during this time. The system may be pushing east of the area in time for at east less convective coverage for the latter half of the weekend. Central guidance reflects high temperatures climbing above normal come Thursday, with lowland highs near 90, before settling closer to normal for Friday into the weekend amid the more active weather. Lows climb above normal and then level off, as dew points creep back into the 60s. This should gradually ease wildfire concerns, but any drought relief is likely to be localized and limited. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 630 AM Sunday... High pressure supplies dry weather and VFR conditions during the day. VFR should then persist for most locations tonight, though a few patches of valley fog are not out of the question after 06Z. IFR or worse CIGs/VIS will be possible wherever fog does form. Westerly winds around 5-10kts are expected during the day, with a few gusts into the teens possible for the northern TAF sites this afternoon. Flow should become calm to light again overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... Widespread IFR is not expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JLB NEAR TERM...SL/JLB SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JLB