486
FXUS61 KRLX 111325
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
925 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry, cooler weather through early portion
of the week. The next system approaches mid to late week, with
increasing warmth and humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 924 AM Sunday...

Increased sky cover in the forecast for the first part of today
based on current satellite trends. Otherwise, no changes were
necessary.

As of 430 AM Sunday...

Valley fog has developed over southwest VA and far southern WV
this morning. However, extent has thus far been restricted by
more substantial cloud cover to the north and west. Have updated
sky grids to reflect coverage of clouds seen on satellite.

As of 120 AM Sunday...

Patchy fog could form in some of the valleys early this
morning, then any fog that does form will dissipate shortly
after sunrise. During the day, mid to high level clouds may
drift overhead while a shortwave trough skates by to the north.
However, high pressure in control at the surface is expected to
sustain dry, quiet weather across the area throughout the near
term period.

After a cool morning, daytime high temperatures are projected to
remain a little below normal with upper 70s to low 80s in the
lowlands and mid 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. After
sundown, temperatures cool to upper 40s to 50s for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...

The area remains under west to northwest mid/upper-level flow to
start the work week, between a long wave trough axis roughly
along the east coast, and long wave ridging building over the
plains.

Models differ on the track of a short wave trough moving either
across or southwest of the area Monday night, but either way, it
is not likely to be able to squeeze out enough moisture for
precipitation, as high pressure and dry air prevail in the low
levels. There is likely to be at least patchy mid and high
cloud.

Low level moisture will increase on Tuesday, perhaps just enough
for shallow diurnal convection over the higher ridges with the
help of the elevated heat source effect.

Central guidance reflects highs climbing to at least normal come
Tuesday. Lows will still be a bit below normal. Nights will not
be quite as cool as this weekend, owing in part to the clouds
Monday night, but it will still be comfortably cool for
sleeping.

Dew points will be well down in the 50s, even into the 40s in
portions of the area on Monday. With lowland highs in the lower
to mid 80s, these low dew points for August spell afternoon
relative humidity percentages down into the 30s, and even the
20s in portions of the area. Together with very dry brush
wherever it has not rained in some time, this raises concerns
for wildland fire potential, but one mitigating factor will be
the light winds with high pressure in control. Humidity levels
will be a bit higher on Tuesday, but conditions will still be
dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...

Mid/upper-level west to northwest flow continues through the
period, as a long wave trough axis persists roughly along the
east coast, and long wave ridging persists over the plains.
Nonetheless, the quiet weather of early portion of the week
gradually becomes noisier during the latter portion of the week.

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes Wednesday drifts
eastward across the northeast states late week, as a mid/upper-
level short wave trough digs across the midwest and then Great
Lakes and lower Ohio Valley, with an associated surface low
pressure system, and a surface warm front approaching the
forecast area from the southwest.

While there may be enough low level moisture for shallow
diurnal convection over the higher ridges Wednesday, with the
help of the elevated heat source effect, short wave ridging
ahead of the next short wave trough is likely to suppress this
on Thursday.

The short wave, and surface warm front, bring increasing warmth
and moisture, with the increasing chance for showers beginning
as early as Thursday night. This is stiff-armed by about 24
hours versus 24 hours ago. The highest chance is Friday and
Saturday afternoons in maximum heating with the system crossing.

Models differ on the timing of the system crossing during these
two days, but the best chance for thunderstorms will be during
these afternoons as well. PW values may be high enough to
support localized heavy downpours during this time. The system
may be pushing east of the area in time for at east less
convective coverage for the latter half of the weekend.

Central guidance reflects high temperatures climbing above
normal come Thursday, with lowland highs near 90, before
settling closer to normal for Friday into the weekend amid the
more active weather. Lows climb above normal and then level off,
as dew points creep back into the 60s. This should gradually
ease wildfire concerns, but any drought relief is likely to be
localized and limited.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

High pressure supplies dry weather and VFR conditions during
the day. VFR should then persist for most locations tonight,
though a few patches of valley fog are not out of the question
after 06Z. IFR or worse CIGs/VIS will be possible wherever fog
does form.

Westerly winds around 5-10kts are expected during the day, with a
few gusts into the teens possible for the northern TAF sites this
afternoon. Flow should become calm to light again overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog tonight may vary from the
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
Widespread IFR is not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JLB
NEAR TERM...SL/JLB
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JLB