779
FXUS61 KRLX 111642
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1242 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry, cooler weather through early portion
of the week. The next system approaches mid to late week, with
increasing warmth and humidity. Mostly dry through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 924 AM Sunday...

Increased sky cover in the forecast for the first part of today
based on current satellite trends. Otherwise, no changes were
necessary.

As of 430 AM Sunday...

Valley fog has developed over southwest VA and far southern WV
this morning. However, extent has thus far been restricted by
more substantial cloud cover to the north and west. Have updated
sky grids to reflect coverage of clouds seen on satellite.

As of 120 AM Sunday...

Patchy fog could form in some of the valleys early this
morning, then any fog that does form will dissipate shortly
after sunrise. During the day, mid to high level clouds may
drift overhead while a shortwave trough skates by to the north.
However, high pressure in control at the surface is expected to
sustain dry, quiet weather across the area throughout the near
term period.

After a cool morning, daytime high temperatures are projected to
remain a little below normal with upper 70s to low 80s in the
lowlands and mid 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. After
sundown, temperatures cool to upper 40s to 50s for tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1239 PM Sunday...

Dry weather will continue in the short term. Despite a mid-level
shortwave approaching from the west Tuesday into Wednesday, the air
will remain very dry in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, too dry to
support precipitation in the lowlands. Therefore, Tuesday and
Wednesday will be largely rain-free, except for the northern
mountains where just enough moisture may support an afternoon pop-up
shower. Sunshine will mix with patchy clouds both days and
temperatures will reach the middle 80s in the lowlands and lower 80s
in the mountains for afternoon highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1239 PM Sunday...

Models show a brief ridge building over the middle Ohio Valley
Thursday, which will likely support a brief warm up for the end of
the work week. Highs may touch the lower 90s Thursday afternoon
across a few lowland locations. A shortwave will approach from the
west Friday afternoon with more mid-level moisture approaching with
it. Therefore, we expect an increase in clouds, showers, and
thunderstorms Friday and into the weekend across the region.

Unsettled weather is expected next weekend with models predicting an
upper-level low somewhere over the Ohio Valley or lower Great Lakes.
This can lead to more numerous clouds, showers and
thunderstorms for the weekend. Given the high amount of
uncertainty, we will limit PoPs to 50% or below for now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

High pressure supplies dry weather and VFR conditions during
the day. VFR should then persist for most locations tonight,
though a few patches of valley fog are not out of the question
after 06Z. IFR or worse CIGs/VIS will be possible wherever fog
does form.

Westerly winds around 5-10kts are expected during the day, with a
few gusts into the teens possible for the northern TAF sites this
afternoon. Flow should become calm to light again overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog tonight may vary from the
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Widespread IFR is not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLB/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL/JLB
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JLB