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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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779 FXUS61 KRLX 111642 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1242 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure provides dry, cooler weather through early portion of the week. The next system approaches mid to late week, with increasing warmth and humidity. Mostly dry through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 924 AM Sunday... Increased sky cover in the forecast for the first part of today based on current satellite trends. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. As of 430 AM Sunday... Valley fog has developed over southwest VA and far southern WV this morning. However, extent has thus far been restricted by more substantial cloud cover to the north and west. Have updated sky grids to reflect coverage of clouds seen on satellite. As of 120 AM Sunday... Patchy fog could form in some of the valleys early this morning, then any fog that does form will dissipate shortly after sunrise. During the day, mid to high level clouds may drift overhead while a shortwave trough skates by to the north. However, high pressure in control at the surface is expected to sustain dry, quiet weather across the area throughout the near term period. After a cool morning, daytime high temperatures are projected to remain a little below normal with upper 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and mid 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. After sundown, temperatures cool to upper 40s to 50s for tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1239 PM Sunday... Dry weather will continue in the short term. Despite a mid-level shortwave approaching from the west Tuesday into Wednesday, the air will remain very dry in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, too dry to support precipitation in the lowlands. Therefore, Tuesday and Wednesday will be largely rain-free, except for the northern mountains where just enough moisture may support an afternoon pop-up shower. Sunshine will mix with patchy clouds both days and temperatures will reach the middle 80s in the lowlands and lower 80s in the mountains for afternoon highs. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1239 PM Sunday... Models show a brief ridge building over the middle Ohio Valley Thursday, which will likely support a brief warm up for the end of the work week. Highs may touch the lower 90s Thursday afternoon across a few lowland locations. A shortwave will approach from the west Friday afternoon with more mid-level moisture approaching with it. Therefore, we expect an increase in clouds, showers, and thunderstorms Friday and into the weekend across the region. Unsettled weather is expected next weekend with models predicting an upper-level low somewhere over the Ohio Valley or lower Great Lakes. This can lead to more numerous clouds, showers and thunderstorms for the weekend. Given the high amount of uncertainty, we will limit PoPs to 50% or below for now. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 630 AM Sunday... High pressure supplies dry weather and VFR conditions during the day. VFR should then persist for most locations tonight, though a few patches of valley fog are not out of the question after 06Z. IFR or worse CIGs/VIS will be possible wherever fog does form. Westerly winds around 5-10kts are expected during the day, with a few gusts into the teens possible for the northern TAF sites this afternoon. Flow should become calm to light again overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... Widespread IFR is not expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JLB/JMC NEAR TERM...SL/JLB SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JLB