628
FXUS61 KRLX 122357
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
757 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure starts the work week dry and cool. The next
system approaches late week, with increasing warmth and
humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 755 PM Monday...

Adding a mentioning of sprinkles for south-central portions of
the CWA for late tonight into early Tuesday morning as the
shortwave crosses overhead. A few areas upstream in the Ohio
Valley have reported light rain reaching the ground as the
system passes overhead, which could perform similarly once it
reaches the Central Appalachians. Also tweaked temperatures and
dew points through the period to remain on track with current
observations.

As of 134 PM Monday...

Surface maps suggest high pressure in control for the most part
tonight and Tuesday, providing dry weather. An upper level
shortwave will cross the area Tuesday, bringing clouds and light
rain showers. Not expecting much in terms of QPF to help to
mitigate current drought conditions. However, kept slight chance
PoPs with this activity.

Central guidance suggests plenty of clouds tonight with the passage
of the aforementioned shortwave. Cloud cover will likely suppress
dense fog formation to become widespread, perhaps resulting in low
stratus near the mountains.

Near normal temperatures are anticipated tonight, generally in the
lower 60s lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s northeast mountains.
High on Tuesday should be warmer than previous days but still about
normal, generally in the mid 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s
northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Monday...

Overall, mainly dry weather is expected in the short term period.
Area will be in NW flow aloft between building ridge across midwest
and trough along the east coast. Temperatures will slowly increase
during the period as ridge builds eastward, with high temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday climbing back into the upper 80s to lower 90s
across the lowlands. There could be an isolated shower or storm both
days from combination of heating and passing weak waves, but more
likely than not, the dry weather will continue for much of the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Monday...

Showers and storms will increase in coverage across the area Friday
through the weekend as an upper trough/low approach the area from
the west, with decreasing coverage as we head into Sunday and upper
trough moves east, and surface cold front slowly pushes through the
area. Cooler and less humid air should take hold, but it could still
remain unsettled as we remain under the influence of the trough into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 755 PM Monday...

A weak upper level disturbance will sail overhead tonight into
Tuesday morning, bringing an increase in cloud coverage and
perhaps a few sprinkles. While not anticipated to inflict
ceiling restrictions, this mid-level canopy may reduce the
potential for river valley fog early Tuesday morning. Still
remain uncertain about EKN`s fog potential for tonight, but held
onto it for now in this issuance in the event clouds hold off.
However, given the track record for fog the past few nights, it
appears less likely to see anything develop tonight. Dry weather
and VFR conditions prevail once again on Tuesday under light
and variable surface flow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog overnight tonight into early
Tuesday morning may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
Widespread IFR is not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...MEK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MEK