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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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628 FXUS61 KRLX 122357 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 757 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure starts the work week dry and cool. The next system approaches late week, with increasing warmth and humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 755 PM Monday... Adding a mentioning of sprinkles for south-central portions of the CWA for late tonight into early Tuesday morning as the shortwave crosses overhead. A few areas upstream in the Ohio Valley have reported light rain reaching the ground as the system passes overhead, which could perform similarly once it reaches the Central Appalachians. Also tweaked temperatures and dew points through the period to remain on track with current observations. As of 134 PM Monday... Surface maps suggest high pressure in control for the most part tonight and Tuesday, providing dry weather. An upper level shortwave will cross the area Tuesday, bringing clouds and light rain showers. Not expecting much in terms of QPF to help to mitigate current drought conditions. However, kept slight chance PoPs with this activity. Central guidance suggests plenty of clouds tonight with the passage of the aforementioned shortwave. Cloud cover will likely suppress dense fog formation to become widespread, perhaps resulting in low stratus near the mountains. Near normal temperatures are anticipated tonight, generally in the lower 60s lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s northeast mountains. High on Tuesday should be warmer than previous days but still about normal, generally in the mid 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s northeast mountains. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1200 PM Monday... Overall, mainly dry weather is expected in the short term period. Area will be in NW flow aloft between building ridge across midwest and trough along the east coast. Temperatures will slowly increase during the period as ridge builds eastward, with high temperatures Wednesday and Thursday climbing back into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lowlands. There could be an isolated shower or storm both days from combination of heating and passing weak waves, but more likely than not, the dry weather will continue for much of the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1200 PM Monday... Showers and storms will increase in coverage across the area Friday through the weekend as an upper trough/low approach the area from the west, with decreasing coverage as we head into Sunday and upper trough moves east, and surface cold front slowly pushes through the area. Cooler and less humid air should take hold, but it could still remain unsettled as we remain under the influence of the trough into next week. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 755 PM Monday... A weak upper level disturbance will sail overhead tonight into Tuesday morning, bringing an increase in cloud coverage and perhaps a few sprinkles. While not anticipated to inflict ceiling restrictions, this mid-level canopy may reduce the potential for river valley fog early Tuesday morning. Still remain uncertain about EKN`s fog potential for tonight, but held onto it for now in this issuance in the event clouds hold off. However, given the track record for fog the past few nights, it appears less likely to see anything develop tonight. Dry weather and VFR conditions prevail once again on Tuesday under light and variable surface flow. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... Widespread IFR is not expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...MEK/ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MEK