056
FXUS61 KRLX 130557
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
157 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure starts the work week dry and cool. The next
system approaches late week, with increasing warmth and
humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 AM Tuesday...

After a moisture-starved mid/upper-level short wave trough
brings early morning clouds, and spotty rain showers and/or
sprinkles, the clouds give way to an afternoon cumulus field
that will dissipate toward sunset, as high pressure regains
control. This will set the stage for a clear, calm and cool
night, allowing for river valley steam fog.

Central guidance reflects highs near normal and lows still a
little below normal, and the forecast reflects slightly lower
lows in the cooler valleys. In the meantime, lowland highs in
the mid 80s and lowland dew points in the 50s spells minimum RH
percentages well down in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Monday...

Overall, mainly dry weather is expected in the short term period.
Area will be in NW flow aloft between building ridge across midwest
and trough along the east coast. Temperatures will slowly increase
during the period as ridge builds eastward, with high temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday climbing back into the upper 80s to lower 90s
across the lowlands. There could be an isolated shower or storm both
days from combination of heating and passing weak waves, but more
likely than not, the dry weather will continue for much of the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Monday...

Showers and storms will increase in coverage across the area Friday
through the weekend as an upper trough/low approach the area from
the west, with decreasing coverage as we head into Sunday and upper
trough moves east, and surface cold front slowly pushes through the
area. Cooler and less humid air should take hold, but it could still
remain unsettled as we remain under the influence of the trough into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 AM Tuesday...

A moisture-starved upper level disturbance brings early morning
altocumulus and high stratocumulus, but nothing more than a
spotty light rain shower or sprinkle that will not produce any
restrictions. Fog was coded up for EKN before dawn banking on
the idea the cloud cover will be high and thin enough to allow
it there.

The clouds will evolve into an afternoon cumulus field that will
then dissipate toward sunset, as high pressure regains control.

Surface flow will be calm by night and light and variable,
mainly north to northwest, by day, all beneath light north flow
aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The extent of fog overnight overnight into
early Tuesday morning may vary from the forecast. Clouds may
lower and thicken enough to preclude fog at EKN. However, the
table reflects guidance is more bullish on fog than is the
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             TUE 08/13/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    L    L    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Widespread IFR is not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM