292
FXUS61 KRLX 120553
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
153 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much of the area remains dry through Saturday. A more active
weather summer pattern ensues next week, with potential storm
complexes amid heat and humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 150 AM Friday...

One shortwave is expected to swing by to the northwest while another
eases along the Atlantic coast. Hot and dry conditions should
prevail for the majority of the lowlands between these two
waves, while daytime heating and moisture seeping in along and
near the mountains is expected to support a few afternoon
showers and storms. Activity wanes after sundown and then quieter
conditions persist for tonight.

Temperatures will be rather warm this afternoon, with highs expected
to reach 70s to mid 80s along the mountains and upper 80s to low 90s
in the lowlands. Low for tonight should then range from low to mid
60s in the mountains to mid to upper 60s in the lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Thursday...

Surface high pressure gives way to an upper level short wave
which will slide through the area on Saturday. This wave will
add lift to help diurnal convection along the mountains
which will likely ignite from the elevated heat effect.
Elsewhere should remain dry although a few drops out of
afternoon convection could make it into other areas near the
mountains. Temperatures will continue to be in a warming trend
with much of the area well above seasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Thursday...

High surface pressure remains in place for Sunday although
another very small short wave aloft will create the possibility
for some diurnal activity across much of the area. Monday
should be protected by high pressure for most of the time
although another disturbance from the northwest will push closer
to the area and start to spread chances of precipitation in
from the north later in the day.

Models are very divergent on this solution, therefore went
mostly with blended model guidance. By Tuesday, the same
disturbance will advect in a frontal boundary which will likely
stick around as a semi-stationary boundary through the rest of
this period as models hint. Even though they are divergent
still, they do come together by Wednesday, therefore accepted
central guidance and capped all precipitation and thunder
probability to 50% for the very end of this period.

A warming trend will continue for much of this period with heat
indexes rising to the low triple digits for much of the
lowlands on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will then dip down
on Thursday where they are forecast to be slightly below normal
for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 AM Friday...

Much of the area is expected to remain VFR into the morning, with
mid-level clouds present along the mountains. A few locations could
experience sub-VFR conditions if patchy fog were to develop before
daybreak. While VFR should persist across the lowlands throughout
the day, periodic restrictions could be possible along the
mountains within afternoon showers and storms.

Winds remain calm into the morning, then become light and variable
during the day before calming again after 00Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy dense fog may not develop.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 07/12/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JLB