232
FXUS61 KRLX 132315
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
715 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend through
Thursday. The next system approaches late week, with increasing
humidity and rain chance.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 715 PM Tuesday...

Dew points ended up being a degrees lower than anticipated this
afternoon, so incorporated that trend into this evening.
Adjusted cloud coverage slightly as well heading into tonight as
satellite trends depict diurnally driven cumulus now
diminishing. This should allow for sufficient radiational
cooling late tonight for mountain river valley fog production.

As of 115 PM Tuesday...

A high pressure system will bring dry weather tonight and
Wednesday. Some river valley fog is possible tonight, more
likely in and near the mountains. Even though we will see a
slight increase in afternoon temperatures on Wednesday, there
will be a lack of humidity as dewpoints will remain in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1203 PM Tuesday...

The region will be under the influence of high pressure Thursday
with a brief ridge building aloft. Most of Thursday should be rain
free, but high clouds will begin to approach from the west late in
the day ahead of a mid-level shortwave and associated warm front.
This will bring shower chances back into the region for Thursday
night. Friday will bring plenty of clouds, along with more numerous
showers as a warm front slides through the area. A couple of
thunderstorms will also be possible, but severe weather chances
appear to be low due to limited instability. High temperatures
will likely be in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lowlands
and the lower to middle 80s in the mountains both Thursday and
Friday, which is slightly above average for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1204 PM Tuesday...

Models are showing an upper-level low spinning over the lower Great
Lakes this weekend and into early next week. This would correspond
to an unsettled weather pattern across our area as several mid-level
impulses drop into the region from the northwest. Rain chances
appear most likely Saturday into Sunday. Lower PoPs are forecast for
early next week due to more uncertainty with the evolution of
the pattern.

With an upper-level low overhead and cooler temperatures aloft,
we expect near to slightly below normal high temperatures
across our area for the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 715 PM Tuesday...

Afternoon cumulus field has begun to diminish at the time of
issuance with the loss of daytime heating. Clearing skies
tonight may insinuate river valley fog in the mountains into
Tuesday morning, especially for EKN. Fog will quickly erode
after sunrise and give way to another quiet day under the
influence of high pressure. Calm winds overnight will then grow
to be light and variable on Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Location and timing of dense river valley
fog late tonight could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Widespread IFR is not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK/RPY
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK