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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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210 FXUS61 KRLX 141110 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 710 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend through Thursday. The next system approaches late week, with increasing humidity and likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 710 AM Wednesday. It turned out slightly cooler than forecast in northeast portions of the area early this morning, and we finally did get valley fog in and near the mountains. The forecast is on track. As of 200 AM Wednesday... High pressure passing north of the area beneath northwest mid/upper-level flow continues the dry weather with low humidity this period. Early morning fog formation in the deeper valleys in and near the mountains is more likely then previous mornings of late, owing to a dearth of stratocumulus. An afternoon cumulus field may linger as patchy stratocumulus after sunset, making subsequent overnight valley fog formation less likely. Central guidance highs, in the upper 80s across the lowlands, are backed up by h85 temperatures climbing to around 16C with the mixed layer up through h8. However, dew points remain low, generally in the 50s, and another comfortably cool night for sleeping is on tap. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... High pressure lingers on Thursday while a developing low pressure system tracks towards the Great Lakes. Dry conditions should persist through the day, then precipitation chances seep into the CWA overnight as the system lifts a warm front north towards the area. Moisture is expected to increase as the front progresses through the CWA on Friday, allowing more widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to blossom during the day. With precipitable water values climbing to around two inches, heavy downpours are likely in the afternoon and evening. Given the dry antecedent conditions, flooding is not anticipated outside of localized poor drainage issues. The warmest temperatures of the week are expected to occur on Thursday, when highs rise into the upper 80s to low 90s in the lowlands and 70s to mid 80s in the mountains. Precipitation and cloud cover should then result in highs that are several degrees cooler for Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... A cold front crosses the area early this weekend while the parent upper low spins over the Great Lakes region. Rain and storms are expected to develop in the warm and moist environment ahead of the front, with most robust activity Saturday afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure starts to edge in behind the front; however, shortwaves pivoting around a lingering upper trough are likely to instigate additional shower and storm activity at times early next week. Temperatures are expected to be near normal during the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 710 AM Wednesday... High pressure passing north of the area continues the mainly VFR conditions with an afternoon cumulus field, the exception being overnight and early morning fog formation in the deeper valleys in and near the mountains, less likely tonight into Thursday morning versus this morning, as patchy stratocumulus lingers after sunset. Surface flow will be light and variable, mainly north to northeast. Light north flow aloft today veers to light east tonight, and then light south by dawn Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Location and timing of overnight and early morning river valley fog could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/14/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M L L H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... Widespread IFR is not expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JLB NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...TRM