210
FXUS61 KRLX 141110
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
710 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend through
Thursday. The next system approaches late week, with increasing
humidity and likelihood of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 710 AM Wednesday.

It turned out slightly cooler than forecast in northeast
portions of the area early this morning, and we finally did get
valley fog in and near the mountains. The forecast is on track.

As of 200 AM Wednesday...

High pressure passing north of the area beneath northwest
mid/upper-level flow continues the dry weather with low
humidity this period. Early morning fog formation in the deeper
valleys in and near the mountains is more likely then previous
mornings of late, owing to a dearth of stratocumulus. An
afternoon cumulus field may linger as patchy stratocumulus after
sunset, making subsequent overnight valley fog formation less
likely.

Central guidance highs, in the upper 80s across the lowlands,
are backed up by h85 temperatures climbing to around 16C with
the mixed layer up through h8. However, dew points remain low,
generally in the 50s, and another comfortably cool night for
sleeping is on tap.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Wednesday...

High pressure lingers on Thursday while a developing low
pressure system tracks towards the Great Lakes. Dry conditions
should persist through the day, then precipitation chances seep
into the CWA overnight as the system lifts a warm front north
towards the area. Moisture is expected to increase as the
front progresses through the CWA on Friday, allowing more
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to blossom during
the day. With precipitable water values climbing to around two
inches, heavy downpours are likely in the afternoon and
evening. Given the dry antecedent conditions, flooding is not
anticipated outside of localized poor drainage issues.

The warmest temperatures of the week are expected to occur on
Thursday, when highs rise into the upper 80s to low 90s in the
lowlands and 70s to mid 80s in the mountains. Precipitation and
cloud cover should then result in highs that are several degrees
cooler for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Wednesday...

A cold front crosses the area early this weekend while the parent
upper low spins over the Great Lakes region. Rain and storms are
expected to develop in the warm and moist environment ahead of the
front, with most robust activity Saturday afternoon and evening.
Surface high pressure starts to edge in behind the front;
however, shortwaves pivoting around a lingering upper trough are
likely to instigate additional shower and storm activity at
times early next week.

Temperatures are expected to be near normal during the long
term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 710 AM Wednesday...

High pressure passing north of the area continues the mainly
VFR conditions with an afternoon cumulus field, the exception
being overnight and early morning fog formation in the deeper
valleys in and near the mountains, less likely tonight into
Thursday morning versus this morning, as patchy stratocumulus
lingers after sunset.

Surface flow will be light and variable, mainly north to
northeast. Light north flow aloft today veers to light east
tonight, and then light south by dawn Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Location and timing of overnight and early
morning river valley fog could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 08/14/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
Widespread IFR is not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JLB
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TRM