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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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220 FXUS61 KRLX 151458 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1058 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure provides one more dry day as it exits, with a hot afternoon. The next system brings higher humidity, with showers and thunderstorms likely, overnight tonight into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1056 AM Thursday... Previous forecast remains on track. No changes needed at this time. As of 610 AM Thursday... Outside adjustments for a slightly cooler than forecast early morning, the forecast is on track. Freshened up temporal wording in the original early morning near term discussion below. As of 210 AM Thursday... High pressure will provide one more day of dry weather today, as it exits the area. The southerly flow on its back side will help buoy temperatures a few degrees higher than highs Wednesday, which takes lowland highs up into the lower 90s amid a few afternoon high base cumulus. The deep mixing layer reflects low afternoon humidity. Clouds will increase this afternoon and tonight, as the next low pressure system approaches from the west. Showers and thunderstorms could move into the middle Ohio Valley in warm, moist advection before dawn Friday, but modest flow/shear and limited instability even elevated should keep any storms from becoming particularly strong or heavy. The increase in cloud will keep tonight from becoming as cool as recent nights, with lows near or even a bit above normal, up around 70 across the Huntington - Charleston corridor. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Thursday... Key Points: * System brings showers and storms late this week. * Isolated severe storms possible each afternoon. A low pressure system slowly moves over the Great Lakes region at the end of the week. Chances of showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to spread across the area as the system lifts a warm front through and then north of the area on Friday. With precipitable water values approaching two inches, heavy downpours are likely to accompany daytime activity. Poor drainage areas could experience a few issues but, overall, rain will be beneficial. Model soundings also suggest isolated strong to severe storms may develop Friday afternoon and evening; however, this potential could be hampered by activity earlier in the day. For now, SPC has maintained a marginal risk of severe weather for the majority of the CWA. Showers and storms remain possible for Saturday as an upper trough slides overhead and a cold front sweeps across the area. Once again, a marginal risk is in place due to the potential for isolated strong to severe storms in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM Thursday... Key Point: * Unsettled through Monday, quieter by mid week. An upper level trough slowly shifts east over the region early next week. Unsettled weather is expected to persist into the new work week as shortwaves pivot through the trough and facilitate periods of showers and storms. The departure of the trough and subsequent arrival of drier air at the surface should then result in more tranquil conditions for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 610 AM Thursday... Any fog at EKN will dissipate during the first hour of the forecast. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions prevail, with a high afternoon cumulus field, as high pressure moves east of the area. High clouds will increase and thicken this afternoon and tonight, and then start to lower and thicken overnight, as the next system approaches from the west. Showers and even thunderstorms may move into the middle Ohio Valley before dawn, but sub-VFR conditions should hold off until after 12Z Friday. Light and variable to calm early morning surface flow will become light, mainly south, today, and then light southeast tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may or may not try to develop at EKN at the last minute overnight tonight, before clouds increase and thicken sufficiently. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions possible under showers and storms Friday into Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JLB NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...TRM