378
FXUS61 KRLX 142345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
745 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and a bit warmer on Thursday. The next system approaches
late week, with increasing humidity and likelihood of showers
and thunderstorms from Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 700 PM Wednesday...

No major changes were made with this update, as the forecast
appears largely on track for a quiet, calm, and clear overnight,
followed by a mostly sunny and hot Thursday.


As of 135 PM Wednesday...

High pressure will continue in control of weather conditions
tonight into Thursday. Expect dry conditions, low humidity and a
warming trend through the period. Guidance suggests developing
of a low stratus deck along and near the mountains overnight
tonight. These clouds will likely suppress widespread river
valley fog from develop at some extend if these clouds do
materialize. Dense fog will be possible in the most protected
river valleys such as Tygart river valley including EKN.

Comfortable temperatures with low humidity tonight should range
from the upper 50s lowlands, into the lower 50s northeast
mountains. Above normal temperatures are expected on Thursday,
generally in the lower 90s lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s
northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1205 PM Wednesday...

Showers and storms will increase in coverage across the area
Friday into Saturday. A warm frontal boundary associated with a
low to the north will lift north across the area Friday. Showers
and storms are possible early Friday, but should generally
remain sub severe. Redevelopment is possible Friday evening with
approaching boundary, however, how much is able to redevelop
after morning convection is uncertain at this time. However, if
storms do redevelop, they will have the potential to become
severe, with a damaging wind risk. Showers and storms will
continue on Saturday as the area remains under the influence of
the upper trough, and additional shortwaves rotate through the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Wednesday...

Unsettled weather continues Sunday into Monday as area remains
under the influence of the upper trough. Conditions start to
improve as we progress into the middle of the week, as high
pressure briefly builds into the area. This will result in dry
conditions taking hold, and a gradual warm up in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions and light winds are forecast through the period
for the bulk of the area. The one expected exception is for some
valley fog likely overnight near EKN, and also possible in some
of the other higher valleys of the southern coalfields. Went
with similar timing for EKN flight categories as last night,
showing possible deterioration before 08z, then being 2SM or
less after that until improvement to VFR by 13z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Developing of dense fog over river valleys
may differ in location and timing.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 08/15/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible under showers and storms Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FK