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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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378 FXUS61 KRLX 142345 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 745 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and a bit warmer on Thursday. The next system approaches late week, with increasing humidity and likelihood of showers and thunderstorms from Thursday night into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 700 PM Wednesday... No major changes were made with this update, as the forecast appears largely on track for a quiet, calm, and clear overnight, followed by a mostly sunny and hot Thursday. As of 135 PM Wednesday... High pressure will continue in control of weather conditions tonight into Thursday. Expect dry conditions, low humidity and a warming trend through the period. Guidance suggests developing of a low stratus deck along and near the mountains overnight tonight. These clouds will likely suppress widespread river valley fog from develop at some extend if these clouds do materialize. Dense fog will be possible in the most protected river valleys such as Tygart river valley including EKN. Comfortable temperatures with low humidity tonight should range from the upper 50s lowlands, into the lower 50s northeast mountains. Above normal temperatures are expected on Thursday, generally in the lower 90s lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s northeast mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 1205 PM Wednesday... Showers and storms will increase in coverage across the area Friday into Saturday. A warm frontal boundary associated with a low to the north will lift north across the area Friday. Showers and storms are possible early Friday, but should generally remain sub severe. Redevelopment is possible Friday evening with approaching boundary, however, how much is able to redevelop after morning convection is uncertain at this time. However, if storms do redevelop, they will have the potential to become severe, with a damaging wind risk. Showers and storms will continue on Saturday as the area remains under the influence of the upper trough, and additional shortwaves rotate through the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1205 PM Wednesday... Unsettled weather continues Sunday into Monday as area remains under the influence of the upper trough. Conditions start to improve as we progress into the middle of the week, as high pressure briefly builds into the area. This will result in dry conditions taking hold, and a gradual warm up in temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 730 PM Wednesday... VFR conditions and light winds are forecast through the period for the bulk of the area. The one expected exception is for some valley fog likely overnight near EKN, and also possible in some of the other higher valleys of the southern coalfields. Went with similar timing for EKN flight categories as last night, showing possible deterioration before 08z, then being 2SM or less after that until improvement to VFR by 13z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Developing of dense fog over river valleys may differ in location and timing. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 08/15/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions possible under showers and storms Friday into Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...FK