949
FXUS61 KRLX 141737
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
137 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend through
Thursday. The next system approaches late week, with increasing
humidity and likelihood of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 135 PM Wednesday...

High pressure will continue in control of weather conditions tonight
into Thursday. Expect dry conditions, low humidity and a warming
trend through the period. Guidance suggests developing of a low
stratus deck along and near the mountains overnight tonight.
These clouds will likely suppress widespread river valley fog
from develop at some extend if these clouds do materialize.
Dense fog will be possible in the most protected river valleys
such as Tygart river valley including EKN.

Comfortable temperatures with low humidity tonight should range from
the upper 50s lowlands, into the lower 50s northeast mountains.
Above normal temperatures are expected on Thursday, generally in the
lower 90s lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s northeast
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1205 PM Wednesday...

Showers and storms will increase in coverage across the area Friday
into Saturday. A warm frontal boundary associated with a low to the
north will lift north across the area Friday. Showers and storms are
possible  early Friday, but should generally remain sub severe.
Redevelopment is possible Friday evening with approaching boundary,
however, how much is able to redevelop after morning convection is
uncertain at this time. However, if storms do redevelop, they will
have the potential to become severe, with a damaging wind risk.
Showers and storms will continue on Saturday as the area remains
under the influence of the upper trough, and additional shortwaves
rotate through the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Wednesday...

Unsettled weather continues Sunday into Monday as area remains under
the influence of the upper trough. Conditions start to improve as we
progress into the middle of the week, as high pressure briefly
builds into the area. This will result in dry conditions taking
hold, and a gradual warm up in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...

Widespread VFR conditions are anticipated under a surface high
pressure. The exception will be IFR/LIFR conditions under dense
fog at EKN and other western foothill river valleys. Using
persistence on dense fog at EKN to develop by 07Z, eroding by
14Z Thursday.

General guidance suggests MVFR low stratus developing along and
near the mountains overnight. Confidence runs low with these
clouds to form. Will keep them out of EKN for now. Any clouds
will gradually dissipate by 15Z Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Developing of dense fog over river valleys
may not materialize due to low stratus.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible under showers and storms Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ