839
FXUS61 KRLX 151010
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
610 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides one more dry day as it exits, with a hot
afternoon. The next system brings higher humidity, with showers
and thunderstorms likely, overnight tonight into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 610 AM Thursday...

Outside adjustments for a slightly cooler than forecast early
morning, the forecast is on track. Freshened up temporal
wording in the original early morning near term discussion
below.

As of 210 AM Thursday...

High pressure will provide one more day of dry weather today,
as it exits the area. The southerly flow on its back side will
help buoy temperatures a few degrees higher than highs
Wednesday, which takes lowland highs up into the lower 90s amid
a few afternoon high base cumulus. The deep mixing layer
reflects low afternoon humidity.

Clouds will increase this afternoon and tonight, as the next
low pressure system approaches from the west. Showers and
thunderstorms could move into the middle Ohio Valley in warm,
moist advection before dawn Friday, but modest flow/shear and
limited instability even elevated should keep any storms from
becoming particularly strong or heavy. The increase in cloud
will keep tonight from becoming as cool as recent nights, with
lows near or even a bit above normal, up around 70 across the
Huntington - Charleston corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...

Key Points:
* System brings showers and storms late this week.
* Isolated severe storms possible each afternoon.

A low pressure system slowly moves over the Great Lakes region at
the end of the week. Chances of showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected to spread across the area as the system lifts a warm front
through and then north of the area on Friday. With precipitable
water values approaching two inches, heavy downpours are likely to
accompany daytime activity. Poor drainage areas could experience a
few issues but, overall, rain will be beneficial. Model
soundings also suggest isolated strong to severe storms may
develop Friday afternoon and evening; however, this potential
could be hampered by activity earlier in the day. For now, SPC
has maintained a marginal risk of severe weather for the
majority of the CWA. Showers and storms remain possible for
Saturday as an upper trough slides overhead and a cold front
sweeps across the area. Once again, a marginal risk is in place
due to the potential for isolated strong to severe storms in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...

Key Point:
* Unsettled through Monday, quieter by mid week.

An upper level trough slowly shifts east over the region early next
week. Unsettled weather is expected to persist into the new work
week as shortwaves pivot through the trough and facilitate periods
of showers and storms. The departure of the trough and subsequent
arrival of drier air at the surface should then result in more
tranquil conditions for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 610 AM Thursday...

Any fog at EKN will dissipate during the first hour of the
forecast. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions prevail, with a high
afternoon cumulus field, as high pressure moves east of the
area.

High clouds will increase and thicken this afternoon and
tonight, and then start to lower and thicken overnight, as the
next system approaches from the west. Showers and even
thunderstorms may move into the middle Ohio Valley before dawn,
but sub-VFR conditions should hold off until after 12Z Friday.

Light and variable to calm early morning surface flow will
become light, mainly south, today, and then light southeast
tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may or may not try to develop at EKN at
the last minute overnight tonight, before clouds increase and
thicken sufficiently.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 08/15/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible under showers and storms Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JLB
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TRM