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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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866 FXUS61 KRLX 160540 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 140 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slides east of the Appalachians tonight. A combination of a warm front and cold front brings showers and thunderstorms for Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 815 PM Thursday... Adjusted POPs for much of the period to reflect the latest timing consensus among the short-term and high-res guidance. In general, it looks like a cluster or line of storms will enter from the west tomorrow morning, then likely washes out against or over the mountains mid to late afternoon. We can expect somewhat of a lull in the wake of that activity, with another round or two of shower and storm potential tomorrow evening and night (beyond the scope of the near-term). Took out any mention of fog for tonight owing to the high overcast. As of 350 PM Thursday... Did a quick update over the next 12 hours to insert some low-end POPs over our northern and northwestern counties in case some of the returns showing on radar reach the ground. Also boosted cloud cover a bit in concert with that change. As of 145 PM Thursday... A strong low pressure system moves east across the Great Lakes late Friday. Meanwhile, a warm front and cold front will extend south and southwest to affect the OH valley and WV Friday and Friday night. Surface high pressure shifts east over the Atlantic coast tonight, allowing the warm front to lift north across the area during the overnight hours. Moisture quickly increases ahead of an approaching cold front with PWATs exceeding 2.0 inches. The moisture, SB CAPE exceeding 2800 J/kg, and deep layered shear from 35 to 45 knots make the environment very unstable capable to produce strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. SPC has outlooked most of the area under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. However, high PWATs will likely water load the updrafts, minimizing the hail threat, but increasing the a heavy downpour threat for localized minor flooding issues. WPC has the area under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for Friday. Models show a gradient in the QPF expected with an axis of precipitation with more than 1 inch along and west of the OH River, ranging to 0.25 inches along the eastern mountains. With increasing moisture, it will feel rather muggy tonight with temperatures struggling to drop into the upper 60s. Cloudiness and cooling showers will keep Friday`s afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging to the lower 70s northeast mountains. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1229 PM Thursday... Upper trough and low will continue to gradually move east through the area on Saturday. A front associated with surface low across the north will move towards the area Saturday evening, helping to reinvigorate showers and storms, some of which could organize and become strong to severe, with a damaging wind threat. Storms will contain brief heavy downpours, and could create a localized flooding issue, mainly in low lying/poor drainage areas. Additional showers and storms are expected on Sunday as the upper trough continues to move east across the area, particularly during peak heating hours. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1229 PM Thursday... Unsettled weather continues into Monday as area remains under the influence of the upper trough. Conditions start to improve as we progress into the middle of the week, as high pressure briefly builds into the area, and the upper trough moves east, with a northwesterly flow setting up. This will result in dry conditions taking hold, and temperatures near to or slightly below normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 140 AM Friday... Clouds blanketing the area early this morning from a nearby warm front will mitigate fog from developing in widespread capacity. Opted to include VCFG at EKN in the event fog does form despite the high clouds progressing overhead. Showers and thunderstorm chances increase after sunrise and persist through the day as overnight convection in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys swings eastward. VCTS remains intact across all TAF sites this afternoon, but diminishing in coverage by late this evening. Low ceilings begin to develop near the conclusion of the valid TAF period. Light winds this morning will become steady out of the southwest after daybreak. Occasional gusts of 10-15kts may be observed by this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may try to develop at EKN tonight. Timing and extent of MVFR/IFR conditions due to convection may vary from forecast later today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 08/16/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions possible under showers and storms this weekend. IFR conditions also possible under low stratus Friday night into Saturday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MEK