866
FXUS61 KRLX 160540
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
140 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides east of the Appalachians tonight. A
combination of a warm front and cold front brings showers and
thunderstorms for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 815 PM Thursday...

Adjusted POPs for much of the period to reflect the latest
timing consensus among the short-term and high-res guidance. In
general, it looks like a cluster or line of storms will enter
from the west tomorrow morning, then likely washes out against
or over the mountains mid to late afternoon. We can expect
somewhat of a lull in the wake of that activity, with another
round or two of shower and storm potential tomorrow evening and
night (beyond the scope of the near-term). Took out any mention
of fog for tonight owing to the high overcast.


As of 350 PM Thursday...

Did a quick update over the next 12 hours to insert some low-end
POPs over our northern and northwestern counties in case some of
the returns showing on radar reach the ground. Also boosted
cloud cover a bit in concert with that change.


As of 145 PM Thursday...

A strong low pressure system moves east across the Great Lakes late
Friday. Meanwhile, a warm front and cold front will extend south and
southwest to affect the OH valley and WV Friday and Friday night.

Surface high pressure shifts east over the Atlantic coast tonight,
allowing the warm front to lift north across the area during the
overnight hours. Moisture quickly increases ahead of an approaching
cold front with PWATs exceeding 2.0 inches. The moisture, SB CAPE
exceeding 2800 J/kg, and deep layered shear from 35 to 45 knots make
the environment very unstable capable to produce strong to
severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night. SPC has
outlooked most of the area under a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms. However, high PWATs will likely water load the
updrafts, minimizing the hail threat, but increasing the a heavy
downpour threat for localized minor flooding issues. WPC has
the area under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for
Friday. Models show a gradient in the QPF expected with an axis
of precipitation with more than 1 inch along and west of the OH
River, ranging to 0.25 inches along the eastern mountains.

With increasing moisture, it will feel rather muggy tonight with
temperatures struggling to drop into the upper 60s. Cloudiness
and cooling showers will keep Friday`s afternoon temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging to the lower
70s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1229 PM Thursday...

Upper trough and low will continue to gradually move east through
the area on Saturday. A front associated with surface low across the
north will move towards the area Saturday evening, helping to
reinvigorate showers and storms, some of which could organize and
become strong to severe, with a damaging wind threat. Storms will
contain brief heavy downpours, and could create a localized flooding
issue, mainly in low lying/poor drainage areas. Additional showers
and storms are expected on Sunday as the upper trough continues to
move east across the area, particularly during peak heating
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1229 PM Thursday...

Unsettled weather continues into Monday as area remains under the
influence of the upper trough. Conditions start to improve as we
progress into the middle of the week, as high pressure briefly
builds into the area, and the upper trough moves east, with a
northwesterly flow setting up. This will result in dry conditions
taking hold, and temperatures near to or slightly below normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 AM Friday...

Clouds blanketing the area early this morning from a nearby warm
front will mitigate fog from developing in widespread capacity.
Opted to include VCFG at EKN in the event fog does form despite
the high clouds progressing overhead.

Showers and thunderstorm chances increase after sunrise and
persist through the day as overnight convection in the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys swings eastward. VCTS remains intact across
all TAF sites this afternoon, but diminishing in coverage by
late this evening. Low ceilings begin to develop near the
conclusion of the valid TAF period.

Light winds this morning will become steady out of the
southwest after daybreak. Occasional gusts of 10-15kts may be
observed by this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may try to develop at EKN tonight.
Timing and extent of MVFR/IFR conditions due to convection may
vary from forecast later today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 08/16/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible under showers and storms this weekend.
IFR conditions also possible under low stratus Friday night into
Saturday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MEK