481
FNUS75 KRIW 172218
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Clearwater Fire...USFS SHF
National Weather Service Riverton WY
418 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on August 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service

.DISCUSSION...

Skies will continue to clear through the morning, before
increasing again after 1200. Showers and thunderstorms will be
developing across the area during this time and look to be ending
after 2100. The best chances for the site to be directly impacted
looks to be between 1400 to 1800, although outflow boundaries
could impact the site a couple of hours outside this window
(likely in the evening). Similar activity will occur again Monday,
with storms possible as early as 1300 and lasting through 2000.
Chances for wetting rain are relatively low Sunday, but increase
for Monday.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 10 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds until 1100, then west 7 to 9 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......West 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL until 1000, then 6500 ft AGL until
                    1200, then 10000 ft AGL until 1400.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then increasing to very good
                    until 1200, then increasing to excellent in
                    the afternoon until 1700.
Haines Index........3.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........30  20  30  15  5   10  10  20  30  40  40  40
Weather cov.....                        SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   40  40  40  40  40  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............54  56  57  60  66  73  77  78  78  79  77  76
RH..............64  64  60  54  45  37  31  30  29  28  30  32
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   7   9   9   9   8   9   8
20 FT wind gust.10  7   7   10  10  10  13  13  13  12  13  12
Ridge wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Ridge wind spd..15  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 4.5 6.5 8.5 10  11  11  9.0 7.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
Transp wind spd.13  12  12  13  17  18  17  17  17  16  16  17
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100020  18  19  30  67  105 127 149 159 144 127 103

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
CWR.................1 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2100, then 2 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 7 mph until 1900, then light.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
Ridgetop wind.......West 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL until 1900, then 1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 1900. Poor after 2000.
Haines Index........3.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........40  40  40  45  45  40  40  40  35  35  35  30
Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  30  30  30  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............3   3   3   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............74  72  69  68  66  64  61  60  60  59  58  58
RH..............34  38  41  45  50  54  56  58  58  55  57  59
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   6   5   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Ridge wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Ridge wind spd..15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 3.0 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.14  12  10  9   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  10
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100065  32  18  14  14  14  16  16  16  16  16  16

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers and scattered thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 60 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3 until 1500, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds until 1100, then southwest 7 to 10
                    mph with gusts to around 18 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......West 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL until 1000, then 8000 ft AGL until
                    1200, then 10500 ft AGL until 1400, then 7500
                    ft AGL until 1600.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then good until 1200, then
                    increasing to very good in the afternoon until
                    1600.
Haines Index........3 to 4.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  35  35  30  30  35  35  45  50  60  55  50
Weather cov.....                        NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   60  60  60  60  60  60
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  60  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   4   4   4
Temp............57  59  61  63  69  74  80  78  77  75  75  74
RH..............61  59  57  53  45  37  31  31  35  38  38  38
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   6   7   8   9   10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.8   8   10  10  11  13  14  17  18  18  18  18
Ridge wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
Ridge wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5 5.0 8.0 11  9.0 7.5 6.0 5.5 5.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  12  14  15  16  17  17  17  17
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100015  18  20  23  52  95  138 127 114 91  85  80

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid
50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds around 15 mph, with
gusts around 25 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs around 80. Southwest winds
around 15 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.
Southwest winds around 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph.

$$
Forecaster...LaVoie
Requested by...Stan Mitchem
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2419008.68/RIW
.DELDT 08/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Paul_Mitchem@firenet.gov