585
FXUS65 KRIW 142329
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
529 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another afternoon/evening of widespread showers and
  thunderstorms with the potential for isolated strong to
  severe storms.

- A drier and warmer pattern is expected to gradually develop by
  the end of the week into the weekend.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures for the weekend
  with favorable fire weather conditions possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Another unsettled day of weather is expected across the Cowboy State
today, as widespread showers and thunderstorms begin to develop this
afternoon. The SPC Convective Outlook currently has the southern two
thirds of the CWA in a Marginal (1 out of 5) risk for severe
thunderstorms. The main concern today will be strong gusty winds,
small hail, and brief periods of heavy rain. Similar to yesterday
there is the possibility for small accumulating hail to occur, with
the stronger storms which may lead to some localized flooding.
Models show much of the CWA having at least a (30-60%) chance for
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Temperatures today will be
on the cooler side with highs ranging in the low to upper 70s across
the state.

Thursday will see a gradual shift in the weather pattern begin. A
weak area of high pressure looks to build into the region bringing
with it drier and warmer weather for the end of the week. Thursday
will still have chances for precipitation as above normal PWAT
values will still be present due to a subtle shortwave moving into
the area. Precipitation chances for Thursday range from (20-40%)
with a few isolated thunderstorms possible. The weekend will see
temperatures returning to the low 90s east of the Divide and mid to
upper 80s west of the Divide. Precipitation chances will decrease
for the weekend as high pressure from the south begins to shift
northward. There may be a risk for elevated fire weather conditions
on Friday and Saturday as winds are expected to increase slightly
and RH values drop to near critical values. This will need to be
monitored as we head towards the end of the week with a Fire Weather
Watch possible.

Long range models are showing a return to an unsettled pattern for
the start of next week. This is due to a potent low pressure sitting
over the PACNW which will funnel in Pacific moisture with above
normal PWAT values possible making a return. Similar to the past few
days there looks to be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
over the first half of the week. Obviously this can change as a
slight shift in things may cause moisture to either move closer or
farther away from the state.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 523 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have begun tapering off across most of
central and western Wyoming, but chances for terminals impacts
remain at KCOD, KWRL, KJAC, and KRKS. Generally light winds
expected overnight, increasing once again tomorrow afternoon as
more showers and thunderstorms develop. Tomorrow it is looking
like a later show with thunderstorms developing between 20Z and
22Z before moving eastward and potentially impacting terminals
until 02Z to 08Z.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...Gross