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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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585 FXUS65 KRIW 142329 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 529 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another afternoon/evening of widespread showers and thunderstorms with the potential for isolated strong to severe storms. - A drier and warmer pattern is expected to gradually develop by the end of the week into the weekend. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures for the weekend with favorable fire weather conditions possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Another unsettled day of weather is expected across the Cowboy State today, as widespread showers and thunderstorms begin to develop this afternoon. The SPC Convective Outlook currently has the southern two thirds of the CWA in a Marginal (1 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms. The main concern today will be strong gusty winds, small hail, and brief periods of heavy rain. Similar to yesterday there is the possibility for small accumulating hail to occur, with the stronger storms which may lead to some localized flooding. Models show much of the CWA having at least a (30-60%) chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Temperatures today will be on the cooler side with highs ranging in the low to upper 70s across the state. Thursday will see a gradual shift in the weather pattern begin. A weak area of high pressure looks to build into the region bringing with it drier and warmer weather for the end of the week. Thursday will still have chances for precipitation as above normal PWAT values will still be present due to a subtle shortwave moving into the area. Precipitation chances for Thursday range from (20-40%) with a few isolated thunderstorms possible. The weekend will see temperatures returning to the low 90s east of the Divide and mid to upper 80s west of the Divide. Precipitation chances will decrease for the weekend as high pressure from the south begins to shift northward. There may be a risk for elevated fire weather conditions on Friday and Saturday as winds are expected to increase slightly and RH values drop to near critical values. This will need to be monitored as we head towards the end of the week with a Fire Weather Watch possible. Long range models are showing a return to an unsettled pattern for the start of next week. This is due to a potent low pressure sitting over the PACNW which will funnel in Pacific moisture with above normal PWAT values possible making a return. Similar to the past few days there looks to be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over the first half of the week. Obviously this can change as a slight shift in things may cause moisture to either move closer or farther away from the state. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 523 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have begun tapering off across most of central and western Wyoming, but chances for terminals impacts remain at KCOD, KWRL, KJAC, and KRKS. Generally light winds expected overnight, increasing once again tomorrow afternoon as more showers and thunderstorms develop. Tomorrow it is looking like a later show with thunderstorms developing between 20Z and 22Z before moving eastward and potentially impacting terminals until 02Z to 08Z. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski AVIATION...Gross