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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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423 FXUS65 KRIW 161030 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 430 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather like today for portions of central and southern Wyoming. - A better chance of thunderstorms returns to southwestern Wyoming tomorrow afternoon. - Near to above normal temperatures are expected from Sunday through much of next week with daily chances of showers and storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 As expected, a few showers and thunderstorms have lingered through the nighttime hours. We still have a few around 3 am, but they are becoming less numerous and weakening. These should be gone around or shortly after sunrise. All in all, this looks to be the driest day of the forecast period as ridging builds northward across the area and drier air punches in from the southwest. A weak shortwave topping the ridge may have just enough moisture for isolated storms this afternoon across the northern third of the area, but the chance is less than 1 out of 5 in any location. Any storms should end around sunset with dry weather the rest of the night. With the ridging, temperatures will climb to above normal levels again. The main concern will be elevated to critical fire weather. The nearby shortwave will create just enough wind to reach critical criteria across southern Wyoming. With humidity expected to drop under 15 percent as the atmosphere mixes out, we have upgraded the watches to Red Flag Warnings for Sweetwater County as well as the Green and Rattlesnake Mountains. We will issue some fire weather statements for surrounding areas, where either wind or humidity should not quite reach criteria. The break in the convection will be brief though as a surge of moisture moves into the west around the back side of the ridge. Precipitable waters may climb to 150 percent of normal. It will take some time though, so most of Saturday looks dry. Any convection Saturday or Saturday night would likely be confined to southwestern Wyoming and areas West of the Divide since downsloping flow should keep areas further north and east mainly dry. This will be a hot day as well, with high temperatures climbing into the 90s in many of the population centers (a relative term in Wyoming to be sure) East of the Divide. Sunday and Monday both look fairly active with a couple of shortwaves passing nearby and precipitable water values around 150 percent of normal leading to a better coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The pattern favors areas West of the Divide with the higher chance, but all areas will have a possibility. Somewhat drier air may then bring a lull for Tuesday. Beyond that, there is more spread in the models so predicting which day is wetter is very difficult. With the ridge holding through the period, we have around a 4 in 5 confidence of temperatures remaining near to above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 425 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A few lingering showers are moving northeast across portions of the area this morning. These will wane over the next couple of hours leaving clearing skies. Convection this afternoon will be much more limited, mainly impacting northern Wyoming. Confidence is not high enough to mention at any terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected, with a breezy afternoon wind across the southern half of the area. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 303 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A combination of humidity falling in the lower teens and winds gusting to 30 mph will bring critical fire weather to portions of Sweetwater, Fremont and Natrona Counties this afternoon. Elevated fire weather is possible for other portions of southern and central Wyoming. Elsewhere, wind should remain light to moderate. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across northern Wyoming. Mixing and smoke dispersal will be generally good to excellent in the afternoon. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ279-289. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Myers FIRE WEATHER...Hattings