628
FXUS62 KRAH 021745 CCA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid and upper-level trough and accompanying surface cold front
will move slowly eastward across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas
through Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

* Widespread torrential showers and storms will shift east of the
  forecast area over the next few hours. Scattered shallow showers
  remain possible through this evening along the cold front.

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis prominently shows the
positively-tilted through axis extending down through the Mid-
Atlantic in the Southeast with a plume of anomalous deep-layer
moisture draped over the Carolinas towards the Delmarva Peninsula.
Surface dew points in the mid 70s and breaks in cloud cover,
especially from the Triangle eastward, has resulted in tall, skinny
instability profiles with 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Within the
past few hours, convective temperatures have been reached across the
warm sector and allowed numerous showers and scattered storms to
develop in addition to the ongoing more localized convection
surrounding several MCVs that are rotating through the Triangle and
northern Sandhills.

This activity is expected to gradually shift eastward towards the
coast through this afternoon and clearing the I-95 corridor by
around 5PM with only isolated/scattered convection through 8-10PM.
The primary concern though 5PM will be torrential downpours, which
will be capable to backbuilding/training over the same area for a
period of time. This will result in a risk for isolated to scattered
flash flooding, especially in urban areas. Most locations should
experience 0.1-1" with the potential for 2-3" where the deepest
storms develop. However, where backbuilding/training occurs, locally
as much as 5" will certainly be possible. Lows tonight will remain
mild and settle in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

* Minimal coverage in diurnal showers Thursday with a return of
  above normal temperatures.

Quieter weather is expected with only a weak shear axis rippling
through the westerly flow aloft to act as much synoptic forcing.
Drier air through the depth of the troposphere will be deposited
over central NC and should limit coverage/intensity of any afternoon
showers/storms. Best chances will be down across the Coastal Plain
into the Sandhills where closer proximity to PWAT around 1.5" and
MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg may be able to overcome the dry air aloft.
Otherwise, less cloud cover and minimal airmass change behind the
cold front will result in above average temperatures with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be similarly mild in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 241 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure will dominate the beginning of the Independence
Day weekend, and both Friday and Saturday should be dry across
the area. The primary potential for showers/storms through the
rest of the extended forecast will come with the potential
development of a tropical system along the front that is
currently moving through the region which will eventually stall
out over Florida. Regardless of whether this becomes a named
tropical system or not, diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage from south to north
Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. High temperatures will remain
fairly steady through the extended forecast, around 90 degrees,
then trending a few degrees warmer for Tuesday. Lows will be
around 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

An area of torrential rainfall, resulting in IFR to VLIFR vsby, is
currently working through RWI to just east of FAY and will be east
of the terminals within the next hour. In its wake, isolated showers
and storms will remain possible through mid-afternoon. Probability
of direct terminal impacts are low. Skies are expected to gradually
clear, albeit briefly, before fog/stratus quickly fills into the
area. Patchy fog will be most probable at RDU, GSO, and INT with
predominantly stratus favored at RWI and FAY. Although, cloud bases
around RWI and FAY have a moderate probability of lowering towards
airport minimums by early Thurs morning.

After 18Z Thursday: Fair weather low-end VFR cumulus will be
probable Thurs afternoon with isolated showers/storms possible, less
than 30%, around FAY. Predominantly VFR conditions expected through
Sat with a return to diurnally maximized showers/storms Sun into
early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Swiggett