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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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349 FXUS62 KRAH 141709 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 110 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will shift east and southeast into the mid Atlantic and the eastern Carolinas through Friday and then shift offshore Saturday. A cold front will approach the region from the west on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM Wednesday... Underneath NW flow aloft, a dry air surface ridge will extend south into the area today, resulting in comfortable conditions for mid August standards. Highs this afternoon in the lower to middle 80s, with dewpoints further mixing out down into the lower/mids 60s, with even some upper 50s possible. Amidst weak instability, weak/channeled vorticity disturbances make trigger some isolated weak convection, mostly in the way of showers later this afternoon before dissipating. Tonight, with generally clear skies and calm winds, lows should manage to dip some 2-6 degrees below normal in the upper 50s in outlying areas to low to mid 60s elsewhere. This will certainly be a comfortable night we have not seen in some time. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM Wednesday... Ridging aloft over the Midwest and OH valley will gradually pivot east into the Mid-Atlantic as an upper trough tracks into the Great Lakes region. High pressure will continue to nose down into our area from the northern Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will be perhaps 1-2 degrees warmer than Wed owing to a slight rise in low-level thicknesses, in the low to mid/upper 80s. This is just below average. We will again see some afternoon fair weather cumulus. The aforementioned trough will combine with low to mid-level WAA across the TN/OH valleys Thu night, increasing some mid/high clouds across the western Piedmont. The WAA will likely generate some upstream convection as far south as the TN/KY region, but it will not reach us due to high pressure and its stability. Lows should be comfortable again, ranging from the low to middle 60s, lowest in the Coastal Plain. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 AM Wednesday... Dry WNW flow aloft will continue to dominate on Friday, as ridging pivots farther east across the Carolinas and surface high pressure extends down the Eastern Seaboard, which will help keep what is then likely Hurricane Ernesto well to our east over the Atlantic. Enough mixing of the dry air aloft will likely help keep dew points in the mid-60s in the afternoon. As troughing extends down from the Great Lakes to the TN Valley, guidance shows it pushing the ridging far enough east for some increased moisture to spill over the Appalachians. This may result in isolated showers or storms making it as far east as the NW Piedmont, so carry slight to low chance POPs there on Friday. As the trough and associated cold front push farther east into the Appalachians on Saturday, SW flow will increase moisture and instability across all of central NC, with 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and PW values reaching or even exceeding 2 inches. This looks to be the day with greatest confidence in precipitation during the extended period, which is backed up by the latest ensemble probabilities. Mid-level flow doesn`t look terribly impressive, around 20-30 kts, but a few strong to severe storms still can`t be ruled out. Low chance POPs continue on Sunday, highest east, as the surface trough works it way through central NC. However, drier air beginning to work in from the west at that point may decrease shower/storm chances a bit compared to Saturday. Guidance depicts below-normal PW values in place by Monday and Tuesday behind the passage of the trough/front, as the low-level flow turns W/NW. With the mid/upper trough axis near or over the area, diurnally-driven slight to low chance POPs linger, but coverage does not look too impressive, and guidance actually depicts weak mid-level height rises. The ECMWF had been depicting a slower/wetter solution, but the 00z run looks more like the GFS with bringing the cold front through our area over the weekend instead of stalling it out. The frontal passage may be more like a trough than an actual cold front, as temperatures should be pretty consistent through the extended period and within a few degrees of normal. Forecast highs are in the mid-to-upper-80s each day. Lows will be in the upper-60s to lower-70s each night, maybe a bit cooler by early next week as drier air moves in. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 110 PM Wednesday... VFR conditions should persist for much of today with scattered to broken strato-cumulus in the 4-5 kft range. Centered underneath the surface ridge axis, light NELY winds should decouple overnight. Model guidance suggests the potential for another night of fog and associated sub-VFR restrictions, mainly at KRDU at KRWI. Confidence was too low to mention at the other terminals. Any fog that does develop should quickly dissipate Thursday morning. Winds will remain light on Thursday and are expected to become E-SELY late in the day. Outlook: Mostly dry, VFR conditions are expected across the area into Friday. A slow moving cold front will approach this weekend, producing at least scattered chances of showers/storm over the weekend and lingering into Monday as the front finally moves through the area. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL/Kren NEAR TERM...Kren SHORT TERM...Kren LONG TERM...Danco AVIATION...CBL