048
FXUS62 KRAH 150126
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
925 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will shift east and
southeast into the mid Atlantic and the eastern Carolinas through
Friday and then shift offshore Saturday. A cold front will approach
the region from the west on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 PM Tuesday...

No major change to this evenings update. Kept PoPs in over the next
few hours for the far southeastern counties as the last few showers
are moving south and out of the area. Another night of fog is
expected tonight for the Triangle and areas east but any fog that
develops is expected to quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise
Thursday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s.

As of 200 PM Wednesday...Underneath NW flow aloft, a dry air surface
ridge will extend south into the area today, resulting in
comfortable conditions for mid August standards. Highs this
afternoon in the lower to middle 80s, with dewpoints further mixing
out down into the lower/mid 60s, with even some upper 50s possible.

Amidst weak instability, weak/channeled vorticity disturbances
diving through the area is supporting a few showers and agitated cu
across southern VA and northern portions of the forecast area. Thus,
will keep a mention of isolated pops into the early evening before
dissipating.

Tonight, with generally clear skies and calm winds, lows should
manage to dip some 2-6 degrees below normal in the upper 50s in
outlying areas to low to mid 60s elsewhere. Additionally, similar
to what we experience this past morning, model guidance suggests
the potential for some ground fog, mainly across the NC Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Mostly dry and seasonable temperatures expected Thursday.

Central NC will remain under the influence of NW flow aloft with
modest height rises aloft as the upper trough exits offshore and
ridging begins to build in from the SW. The dry air sfc ridge will
linger across the area. Under mostly sunny skies, a projected
increase ~5m in low-level thicknesses should translate into a 1-2
degrees of added warmth which will place most of central NC right
around the 30 year norm. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Weak subsidence and dry, below-normal PWATs should preclude any
diurnal convective rain chances. Furthermore, the passage of a upper
impulse during the evening overnight hours, atop the building ridge,
should also prove to be rather inconsequential, aside from increase
in mid and high clouds. Lows 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Wednesday...

While there are no completely dry 24-hour periods across the
forecast area in the extended forecast, the chance of rain is never
higher than 40 percent, and no periods appear to be a washout.

Friday morning will begin with low pressure near the western tip of
Lake Superior which will take its time tracking along the
US/Canadian border - passing over Lake Huron Saturday, moving to
northern New York Monday morning, and passing to the east of Maine
by Tuesday. A weak surface trough could bring some isolated
thunderstorms near the Triad Friday afternoon/evening, but there
should be minimal precipitation coverage across the forecast area.
The cold front associated with the low will also move slowly, with a
chance of thunderstorms across western locations Saturday, the
entire area Saturday night, and east of US-1 Sunday. Right now,
Saturday night appears to be the period with the most widespread
chance of showers/storms in the extended forecast. The front then
gets hung up along the coast for the first half of next week, and
this will keep at least a slight chance of showers/storms in the
forecast east of I-95 through Wednesday, with an isolated storm
possible farther back to the west. Normal temperatures in mid-August
are highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows around 70 degrees, and
forecast values should be within a few degrees of these normals.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 755 PM Wednesday...

Weak convergence along an inverted surface trough and subsequent
outflow boundary may trigger a few additional showers around FAY
through 02Z. Mainly calm and clear tonight will favor strong
radiational cooling and the development of patches of shallow,
radiation fog. The relative best chance for visibility restrictions
will be at RWI and RDU. VFR conditions are expected otherwise and
elsewhere, as high pressure builds across the region.

Outlook: Mostly dry, VFR conditions are expected across the area
into Friday. A slow moving cold front will approach this weekend,
producing at least scattered chances of showers/storm over the
weekend and lingering into Monday as the front finally moves through
the area.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...CA/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...MWS/CBL