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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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048 FXUS62 KRAH 150126 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 925 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will shift east and southeast into the mid Atlantic and the eastern Carolinas through Friday and then shift offshore Saturday. A cold front will approach the region from the west on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 925 PM Tuesday... No major change to this evenings update. Kept PoPs in over the next few hours for the far southeastern counties as the last few showers are moving south and out of the area. Another night of fog is expected tonight for the Triangle and areas east but any fog that develops is expected to quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise Thursday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. As of 200 PM Wednesday...Underneath NW flow aloft, a dry air surface ridge will extend south into the area today, resulting in comfortable conditions for mid August standards. Highs this afternoon in the lower to middle 80s, with dewpoints further mixing out down into the lower/mid 60s, with even some upper 50s possible. Amidst weak instability, weak/channeled vorticity disturbances diving through the area is supporting a few showers and agitated cu across southern VA and northern portions of the forecast area. Thus, will keep a mention of isolated pops into the early evening before dissipating. Tonight, with generally clear skies and calm winds, lows should manage to dip some 2-6 degrees below normal in the upper 50s in outlying areas to low to mid 60s elsewhere. Additionally, similar to what we experience this past morning, model guidance suggests the potential for some ground fog, mainly across the NC Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Wednesday... Mostly dry and seasonable temperatures expected Thursday. Central NC will remain under the influence of NW flow aloft with modest height rises aloft as the upper trough exits offshore and ridging begins to build in from the SW. The dry air sfc ridge will linger across the area. Under mostly sunny skies, a projected increase ~5m in low-level thicknesses should translate into a 1-2 degrees of added warmth which will place most of central NC right around the 30 year norm. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Weak subsidence and dry, below-normal PWATs should preclude any diurnal convective rain chances. Furthermore, the passage of a upper impulse during the evening overnight hours, atop the building ridge, should also prove to be rather inconsequential, aside from increase in mid and high clouds. Lows 60-65. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 PM Wednesday... While there are no completely dry 24-hour periods across the forecast area in the extended forecast, the chance of rain is never higher than 40 percent, and no periods appear to be a washout. Friday morning will begin with low pressure near the western tip of Lake Superior which will take its time tracking along the US/Canadian border - passing over Lake Huron Saturday, moving to northern New York Monday morning, and passing to the east of Maine by Tuesday. A weak surface trough could bring some isolated thunderstorms near the Triad Friday afternoon/evening, but there should be minimal precipitation coverage across the forecast area. The cold front associated with the low will also move slowly, with a chance of thunderstorms across western locations Saturday, the entire area Saturday night, and east of US-1 Sunday. Right now, Saturday night appears to be the period with the most widespread chance of showers/storms in the extended forecast. The front then gets hung up along the coast for the first half of next week, and this will keep at least a slight chance of showers/storms in the forecast east of I-95 through Wednesday, with an isolated storm possible farther back to the west. Normal temperatures in mid-August are highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows around 70 degrees, and forecast values should be within a few degrees of these normals. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 755 PM Wednesday... Weak convergence along an inverted surface trough and subsequent outflow boundary may trigger a few additional showers around FAY through 02Z. Mainly calm and clear tonight will favor strong radiational cooling and the development of patches of shallow, radiation fog. The relative best chance for visibility restrictions will be at RWI and RDU. VFR conditions are expected otherwise and elsewhere, as high pressure builds across the region. Outlook: Mostly dry, VFR conditions are expected across the area into Friday. A slow moving cold front will approach this weekend, producing at least scattered chances of showers/storm over the weekend and lingering into Monday as the front finally moves through the area. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kren NEAR TERM...CA/CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...MWS/CBL