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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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809 FXUS62 KRAH 150804 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 404 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist over the Carolinas today then shift offshore by late Friday. A cold front will approach the region from the west on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY and TONIGHT/... As of 311 AM Thursday... A dry and tranquil weather pattern... featuring NW flow aloft, sfc high pressure over our region, and high PWAT airmass suppressed well to our south... is in place over central NC attm and will remain through the near term. Highs today will be near or a couple deg below climo... mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight in the 60s under some passing mid and high clouds as the upper ridge axis builds toward our region. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 311 AM Thursday... The sfc ridge axis will move offshore early in the day with increasing southerly low level flow by late in the day. A short wave trough that is crossing the Midwest region today will move across the western Great Lakes on Friday, with lowering heights to our north. A band of showers/tstms ahead of the trough axis will cross the Ohio Valley early in the day, then the mountains during the afternoon. As this band of showers moves east of the mountains toward the drier antecedent air over central NC, its possible that a couple of the showers/tstms may hold together, reaching our Triad zones before dissipating. Thus, will continue to advertise slt chance PoPs for our Triad zones later in the day and into the evening. Otherwise, the rest of central NC should remain dry on Friday with highs a couple degrees warmer than today, and a slight uptick in humidity as the southern flow increases late. Lows Friday night in the upper 60s to around 70 under partly cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 AM Thursday... A surface low will slowly drift east from MI into Lake Huron and SE Ontario on Saturday and Saturday night. An associated prefrontal trough will be over central NC, with the actual cold front still moving from the OH Valley into the Appalachians. Timing of this frontal system has slowed down somewhat compared to yesterday, so POPs have come down a bit during the day and are mainly focused in the NW. While moisture doesn`t look too impressive, there still could be enough instability (1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE) and forcing from the mid/upper trough to our west and surface trough in place to bring scattered showers and storms to central NC, especially by the evening hours when POPs are in the 30-40% chance range. Some rain chances may linger into the overnight hours. The best coverage for convection across the whole region now looks like it may come on Sunday, when shortwave energy diving down from the NW deepens the mid/upper troughing in place to our west, increasing SW flow and height falls across the area. Meanwhile a cold front will approach and slowly move across central NC on Sunday evening/night. Latest ensemble probabilities indicate a 70-80% chance of measurable precipitation on Sunday afternoon/evening, but don`t have enough confidence to go too high with POPs yet, capping them at 40-50%. Mid-level flow is looking more impressive on the 00z guidance, in the 30-40 kt range, so some strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out. Rain chances should end from NW to SE on Sunday night behind the cold frontal passage. A drying trend will then set up from Monday through Wednesday. Surface high pressure will build down from the Great Lakes and Northeast US as the cold front stalls near the coast. The mid/upper trough axis will initially be over us on Monday, then push east near the coast, bringing NW flow aloft that brings below-normal PW values and helps dew points mix out well into the 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday. In fact, some guidance even shows some 50s dew points on these days. After slight to low chance POPs on Monday, convection will get even more isolated on Tuesday and Wednesday, with only slight chance POPs in the east and southeast in closest proximity to the front. Temperatures will be on a gradual downward trend through the period as the cold front moves through. Forecast highs are in the mid-to- upper-80s (near normal) on Saturday, decreasing to lower-to-mid-80s (slightly below normal) by Tuesday and Wednesday. Forecast lows similarly drop from lower-70s on Sunday morning to 60s by Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 311 AM Thursday... Through 06Z Friday: Aside from some local patches of fog and assoc IFR conditions mainly from KRWI to KFAY, we can expect VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period, along with light N-NE sfc winds that will become variable late in the day. After 06Z Friday: VFR conditions are expected across the area into Friday. A slow moving cold front will approach this weekend, producing at least scattered chances of showers/storm over the weekend and lingering into Monday as the front finally moves through the area. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...Danco AVIATION...np