215
FXUS62 KRAH 050646
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across and offshore the Middle Atlantic
today. A coastal front will strengthen and move inland across the
Carolinas tonight, ahead of Tropical Depression Three that will
drift northward into SC Sunday and into eastern sections of NC
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...

* Comfortable humidity levels with seasonal highs
* Chances for isolated to scattered storms along/east of US-1

High pressure off of Delmarva and south of New England will
gradually shift off into the north Atlantic. Current Tropical
Depression 3 off the southeast coast is forecast to reach the
central coast of SC by early Sun as soon to be Tropical Storm
Chantal. The majority of the daytime today will be rather pleasant,
outside of a few storm chances in the east. Dewpoints should mix out
again to more comfortable levels in the lower 60s over the Piedmont
as a dry ENE flow persists. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near
90 so it will still be warm, but noticeably nicer humidity-wise.

Convective bands tied to TD 3 are forecast to move westward from the
coast during the aftn/eve as moisture transport builds inland north
of the center. Most of the CAMs show limited instability from the
drier air across the western Piedmont. That said, areas along/east
of US-1 and especially the Sandhills to Coastal Plain have the best
chance for seeing these isolated to scattered storms.

By sunset, there could be a lull in storm activity as stability
takes shape. However, areas of showers with embedded thunder should
build north and west across central NC by early Sun as PW`s increase
well above normal to 2.2-2.3 in, coincident with deep low-level
moisture transport on the NE side of TD 3. This will favor
increasing clouds Sat evening/night, with lows above normal in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...

* TD 3 brings marginal risk of flash flooding.
* A low-end tornado threat is possible for eastern sections of
  central NC, but we are currently not outlooked from SPC

While there is still a little bit of spread in the track and timing
of TD 3, the latest NHC track forecast takes the system from SC Sun
morning into eastern portions of the Triangle by early Mon. The
NAM/GFS/HRRR/NEST appear slower and further south closer to the
coast than the ECMWF/CMC. Regardless, deep moisture transport/WAA
and very high PW`s of 2.25-2.5 in will favor the development of
widespread showers and embedded storms, maximized during peak
heating in the late morning through the evening hours. A consensus
of ensemble guidance would suggest rainfall totals through early Mon
of 0.25 to 0.5 inches west of the Triangle and 0.5 to 1 inch
along/east of US-1. Embedded higher totals of 1.5 to 2+ inches are
possible along the Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills. The area
along/east of US-1, where WPC has retained a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall, is where the risk of flash flooding appears
highest. This could certainly be adjusted if the track changes, such
that if the American models verify, the western Piedmont could see
little if any rainfall. Highs will generally be in the 80s, tempered
by clouds/storms.

In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, while not as clear cut,
there does appear to be a low-end tornado threat for areas from the
eastern Sandhills to Coastal Plain. Some HREF members are
highlighting the potential for some updraft helicity swaths on the
northeast side of the system, in a region of 1500 J/kg of
instability. The low-level shear does appear less clear cut but
given the juicy boundary layer it is worth mentioning. A further
inland track would bring this threat further west, while a track
just inland of the coast would limit the tornado threat to mainly
Sampson County. Scattered showers/storms will continue Sun night,
mainly for eastern areas and cannot rule out that low-end tor threat
as well. Lows will be muggy in the low/mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

* A tropical development is possible off the coast near the FL/GA
  border later today or Saturday. Regardless of development, rain
  chances will increase Sunday and Monday.

* Afternoon/diurnal shower chances return Tuesday through Friday.

As of the 200 PM tropical weather outlook from the NHC, there is a
high (70%) chance of formation of a tropical or subtropical
depression developing off the coast near the FL/GA border.
Regardless of development, rain chances will increase Sunday and
potentially Monday as the system moves northward. Local impacts are
expected to be locally heavy rain and a few stronger storms, with
the greatest chance being in the southeast. There is uncertainty
with the speed of the system, leaving low confidence in how long
rain chances will continue on Monday. After this system exits the
region, we will return to a pattern of diurnal showers/storms each
afternoon from the rest of the extended period as multiple shortwave
troughs pass through the region.

Temperatures on Sunday will be around 5 degrees below average, with
highs expected in the mid 80s. Maximum temperatures are expected to
increase a few degrees on Monday, into the upper 80s to low 90s, and
should increase further on Tuesday into the low to mid 90s.
Wednesday to Friday are expected to have highs in the low 90s. Along
with this, heat indices may return to the low 100s Tuesday through
Friday. Lows each night are expected in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

There is reasonably high confidence in VFR for most of the TAF
period. We cannot rule out some very brief patchy fog into early
Sat, but any consistent signal is too low to include at this time.
ENE winds will pick up Sat, with gusts of 15 to 20 kt at RDU, FAY,
RWI ahead of Tropical Depression 3. Convective bands tied to this
depression could impact RDU, FAY, RWI in the 18 to 00z period, with
the highest confidence at FAY and RWI. For now, given low confidence
overall, have kept PROB30 in the TAF. Increasing moist flow Sat
night with TD 3 should favor gradual increasing flight restrictions
to MVFR/IFR, and isolated showers/storms, by Sun morning, earliest
at FAY.

Outlook: The chance for showers/storms, flight restrictions, and
breezy nely flow will further increase Sun as the remnants of now
Tropical Depression 3 move nwd across the Carolinas through Mon,
with the greatest impact at FAY, RWI, and RDU. A humid airmass will
then favor areas of morning stratus and fog and afternoon-evening
showers/storms through most of next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren/MWS
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Kren/MWS