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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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561 FXUS62 KRAH 160110 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 910 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist over the Carolinas today then shift offshore by late Friday. A cold front will approach the region from the west on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 910 PM Thursday... Quiet weather continues tonight as upper level trough proceeds to shift offshore. Some mid-level clouds moving into the region from VA overnight will limit fog potential for the most part, but could partially clear resulting in a low chance for some patchy fog over the eastern portion of the CWA. Otherwise, overnight lows will be a few degrees below climo ranging in the 60s with a few cooler spots getting down into the upper 50s again. As of 200 PM Thursday... Central NC will remain under the influence of NW flow aloft with modest height rises aloft as the upper trough exits offshore and ridging begins to build in from the west. The dry air sfc ridge extending south into the area will continue to keep humidity at comfortable levels. Underneath some wispy cirrus clouds and scattered diurnal stratocu field, a projected increase ~5 m in low-level thicknesses should translate into a 1-2 degrees of added warmth, which will place most of central NC near to slightly below the 30 year norm. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Hi-res CAMs suggest an isolated shower or two is possible along the seabreeze and higher terrain this afternoon, which is very plausible given the agitated cu field in both these regions. Otherwise, a capping inversion coupled with dry, below-normal PWATs should preclude diurnal convective rain chances today. Aside from increase in mid and high clouds across the nw Piedmont, upper impulses spilling east atop the building ridge should prove rather inconsequential overnight. Lows 60-65. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Thursday... Embedded in the W-NW flow aloft between the upper ridge centered over the south central CONUS and the large troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio and Tn Valleys, moisture/PWATs will steadily increase from west to east across central NC through Friday night as weak perturbations traverse the area. Steered by W-NWLY flow, convective initiation just upstream across the mountains and foothills will likely progress eastward, in weakening fashion, into the western Piedmont between during the afternoon and evening, and potentially into central and eastern portions, in widely scattered fashion overnight. Given both weak shear and instability, severe storms are not expected. The onset of SWLY low-level flow will result in continued warming and a slight uptick in humidity levels. Highs 85-90. Lows 65-70. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 PM Thursday... Mid-latitude flow will become and remain amplified through at least the middle of next week, anchored by a sub-tropical high with 500 mb heights of 3-5 sigma (near 600 dam) forecast to develop from the srn High Plains to the Southwest. A surrounding ridge will extend across the Plains and be flanked by a reloading negative height anomaly off the Pacific Northwest coast and a trough that will progress into and persist over ern NOAM. At the surface, high pressure and residual continental air will linger along the Middle and South Atlantic coast Saturday, then yield to a cold front that will approach from the west and move slowly ewd across NC Sun through Mon night. While high pressure will follow, it may be initially slowed by the Appalachians and allow for lee trough development on Tue, before more-overwhelmingly building ewd and across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas Wed-Thu. The pattern described above will favor a good chance of diurnally- maximized convection over mainly the wrn half of cntl NC Sat, where low-level moisture/instability will be more plentiful away from the lingering dry air ridge along the coast. A high to likely chance of convection will result as the cold front edges into cntl NC on Sun, with chances gradually shifting across the Coastal Plain and toward the coast through Mon night. Mainly dry conditions will follow for the rest of the week. Temperatures will generally be around to slightly above normal ahead of the front through Sun, then trend below average Tue-Thu. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 735 PM Thursday... A semi-persistence forecast continues with best chance for sub-VFR fog at RWI, with a lesser chance at FAY. Lack of rainfall, warmer high temperature, and lower crossover-temperature, should confine fog to the climatologically favored time of 05z-12z. Showers/storms will be possible (15-30% chance) at INT/GSO during the late afternoon into the evening hours as upstream convection leaks across the mountains, although likely in a weakening state. After 00Z Saturday: A slow moving cold front will approach this weekend, producing increasing convective rain chances through the weekend with Sunday being the most active/widespread. Showers/storms will potentially linger into Monday as the front finally moves through the area. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...CA/CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...Swiggett/CBL