408
FXUS62 KRAH 170638
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
238 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface cold front and deep upper level trough will approach our
area from the west tonight through Sunday, then move through the
region late Sunday through Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Saturday...

A chance of mainly PM showers and thunderstorms in the west and
central areas (Piedmont) today.

An MCV associated with previous showers and thunderstorms over the
NW and W part of the Piedmont was still evident in the satellite
data tracking east across VA/NC. There continued to be mid
and high level cloudiness in all but the Coastal Area. Isolated
showers continued over central VA early this morning. CAMS suggest
that isolated to widely scattered showers are possible this morning,
mainly from the Triangle area north and east. However, it appears it
will be this afternoon and evening when the best chance (30-40
percent) appears in the Piedmont. The chances taper to slight
chances in the Coastal Plain this afternoon and evening. While
an isolated strong storms is possible, mainly over the Triad and
northern Piedmont this afternoon and early evening, the marginal
risk remained just to our NW. Highs will top out mainly between 85-
90.

The chance of showers/storms occurs as the mid/upper level trough to
our NW approaches the mountains later today. A weak lee pre-frontal
trough is expected over the Piedmont this afternoon and evening.
Isolated showers/storms will be possible tonight. Otherwise, most of
the convection will end by late evening. Lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

A cold front will loop from Lower Michigan southeast into the Ohio
Valley and then southwest into the Tennessee Valleys Saturday
morning, slowly moving to the southeast and moving into western
North Carolina by Sunday morning. A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
northeast of Raleigh Saturday morning left over from tonight`s
precipitation, then it appears coverage could expand a little bit in
the afternoon. Different synoptic and high-resolution models are
really all over the place with predictions for where convection will
occur. There does seem to be some broad agreement that the southern
Piedmont will remain dry Saturday afternoon, so with the
uncertainty, painted slight chance pops north of I-40 as well as
east of I-95. This is a very low confidence forecast considering the
lack of agreement from the computer models. There is slightly more
agreement in some thunderstorms moving into the region late Saturday
night as the cold front approaches, but this will also be occurring
at a time when convection is normally at a minimum, and have gone
with chance pops to the northwest of I-85. Saturday`s highs will be
within a degree or two of today`s values, generally in the mid to
upper 80s. Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 238 AM Saturday...

A longwave trough moving across the eastern US will push a cold
front across our area on Monday. Scattered prefrontal showers/tstms
are possible Monday afternoon and into the evening, then expect the
front to finally push east of NC by midnight. High pressure will
then build to our north Tuesday and extend south across the
Carolinas for the latter half of the work week.  A pleasant dry
airmass is expected during this time, thus dry weather and high
temps in the lower 80s Tuesday through Friday.  It`s worth noting
that Monday`s cold front is expected to initially stall well
offshore of the Carolina coast, but may drift north and west back
toward the coast late in the week, thus may necessitate low-end PoPs
across our far SE zones late in the week or next weekend depending
on how far north and west the boundary moves.  Overall, once we get
past fropa late Monday, a period of very nice weather and pleasant
temps is in store for central NC for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 AM Saturday...

Generally VFR conditions are expected through 18z today. Scattered
thunderstorms with brief MVFR conditions are expected this afternoon
and evening, with the best chances from KINT to KRDU.

Looking beyond 00z Sun, a few showers and storms remain possible at
all sites through Sat night. A higher chance of showers/storms
exists on Sunday afternoon and evening, especially from KRDU east
and south. Generally VFR conditions should return and prevail Mon-
Wed.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...Badgett/Hartfield