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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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408 FXUS62 KRAH 170638 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 238 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A surface cold front and deep upper level trough will approach our area from the west tonight through Sunday, then move through the region late Sunday through Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM Saturday... A chance of mainly PM showers and thunderstorms in the west and central areas (Piedmont) today. An MCV associated with previous showers and thunderstorms over the NW and W part of the Piedmont was still evident in the satellite data tracking east across VA/NC. There continued to be mid and high level cloudiness in all but the Coastal Area. Isolated showers continued over central VA early this morning. CAMS suggest that isolated to widely scattered showers are possible this morning, mainly from the Triangle area north and east. However, it appears it will be this afternoon and evening when the best chance (30-40 percent) appears in the Piedmont. The chances taper to slight chances in the Coastal Plain this afternoon and evening. While an isolated strong storms is possible, mainly over the Triad and northern Piedmont this afternoon and early evening, the marginal risk remained just to our NW. Highs will top out mainly between 85- 90. The chance of showers/storms occurs as the mid/upper level trough to our NW approaches the mountains later today. A weak lee pre-frontal trough is expected over the Piedmont this afternoon and evening. Isolated showers/storms will be possible tonight. Otherwise, most of the convection will end by late evening. Lows in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Friday... A cold front will loop from Lower Michigan southeast into the Ohio Valley and then southwest into the Tennessee Valleys Saturday morning, slowly moving to the southeast and moving into western North Carolina by Sunday morning. A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out northeast of Raleigh Saturday morning left over from tonight`s precipitation, then it appears coverage could expand a little bit in the afternoon. Different synoptic and high-resolution models are really all over the place with predictions for where convection will occur. There does seem to be some broad agreement that the southern Piedmont will remain dry Saturday afternoon, so with the uncertainty, painted slight chance pops north of I-40 as well as east of I-95. This is a very low confidence forecast considering the lack of agreement from the computer models. There is slightly more agreement in some thunderstorms moving into the region late Saturday night as the cold front approaches, but this will also be occurring at a time when convection is normally at a minimum, and have gone with chance pops to the northwest of I-85. Saturday`s highs will be within a degree or two of today`s values, generally in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 238 AM Saturday... A longwave trough moving across the eastern US will push a cold front across our area on Monday. Scattered prefrontal showers/tstms are possible Monday afternoon and into the evening, then expect the front to finally push east of NC by midnight. High pressure will then build to our north Tuesday and extend south across the Carolinas for the latter half of the work week. A pleasant dry airmass is expected during this time, thus dry weather and high temps in the lower 80s Tuesday through Friday. It`s worth noting that Monday`s cold front is expected to initially stall well offshore of the Carolina coast, but may drift north and west back toward the coast late in the week, thus may necessitate low-end PoPs across our far SE zones late in the week or next weekend depending on how far north and west the boundary moves. Overall, once we get past fropa late Monday, a period of very nice weather and pleasant temps is in store for central NC for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 140 AM Saturday... Generally VFR conditions are expected through 18z today. Scattered thunderstorms with brief MVFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening, with the best chances from KINT to KRDU. Looking beyond 00z Sun, a few showers and storms remain possible at all sites through Sat night. A higher chance of showers/storms exists on Sunday afternoon and evening, especially from KRDU east and south. Generally VFR conditions should return and prevail Mon- Wed. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...np AVIATION...Badgett/Hartfield