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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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279 FXUS62 KRAH 181352 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 952 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An unseasonably strong upper and attendant cold front approaching from the northwest will move gradually eastward through the region today through Monday. A cooler and less humid air mass will settle into the area from Monday night through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 952 AM Sunday... ...There remains a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms from Raleigh south and east this afternoon and evening... ...There is also a risk for Isolated Pockets of Heavy Rain and Flash flooding along and east of US 1... An unseasonably strong(~3 S.D. below normal)amplifying upper-level trough will dig SEWD into the region through tonight and through the day on Monday. At the surface, a pre-frontal sfc trough in the lee of the Appalachians will get overtaken by an accompanying cold front that`s currently making it`s way through central TN and KY. The cold front is progged to move east across central NC during the evening and overnight hours. Not much has changed in the thinking of the forecast and severe threat later today. There is bit more uncertainty wrt storm coverage/PoPs, with latest model guidance potentially suggesting that convective coverage may be a little more scattered in nature. However, given the expected robust forcing, the near-storm environment will be conducive to strong/severe updrafts. Strong daytime heating, featuring afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s north to lower 90s, will foster moderate to strong destabilization area-wide, maximized over the Sandhills and southern coastal plain. In advance of the cold front and coincident with core of the stronger 40-50 meter H5 falls spreading into the area, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop across the western Piedmont between 18-21z. Thereafter, convection will have a propensity to become better organized as the storms progress eastward into the central Piedmont and western Sandhills between 20- 00z, and then across eastern Sandhills and coastal plain counties between 23-04z. Deep layer shear of 30-35 kts will favor multi- cellular severe threat, with damaging winds the primary threat. The severe threat appears greatest between 4 to 10 pm. Additionally, given recent wetness and with area streams and creeks still running high, the convective downpours could also lead to some instances of flash flooding, especially in poor-drainage and urban areas. Bulk of rain and convection will exit east of the area between at or before midnight with mostly dry conditions thereafter. Areas of low clouds/stratus are possible, mainly across coastal plain, INVOF the cold front moving through the area. Lows ranging from mid 60s north to lower 70s SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 303 AM Sunday... There is a marginal risk of severe storms in eastern NC on Monday afternoon and early evening. The main cold front will be moving through the eastern Piedmont to the Coast during the day. However, the best heating and instability is expected in the Coastal Plain into the Coastal Area where the front will be moving through during peak heating. This region will likely have the best chance of organized thunderstorms with some local damaging wind gusts possible. Back over the Piedmont, the base of the upper trough will swing through, but instability and surface convergence will be lower than those that will exist down east. CAMS suggest that there will be scattered thunderstorms with this feature; however, these storms should be less robust. Highs will be cooler and should range in the lower to mid 80s west and north, and upper 80s SE. Cooler and less humid air (a real break from typical August heat) will arrive Monday night. Lows will dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s north and mid to upper 60s SE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 320 AM Sunday... An unseasonably deep upper level trough will encompass most of the eastern US Tuesday between strong ridges over the northern Atlantic and southwestern US. The strong shortwave digging through the trough today and tomorrow will move east of NC by Tuesday, but it appears there will be additional pieces of energy diving into the back side of the trough to maintain the mean trough axis trough the region through midweek. However, with a 1024mb high shifting across the Midwest and a notable airmass change Monday that results in dewpoints falling into the 50s by Wed/Thu, the forecast is dry through the end of the week. Under the trough, 1000-850mb thicknesses are forecast to drop into the 1370s and 1380s, 30m or so below normal, resulting in highs as much as 5-10 degrees below normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s by Thursday. The lower dewpoints will also support overnight lows in the mid and upper 50s in many locales. The cool down will be relatively short lived however, as the upper ridge over the SW US is forecast to build east across the Deep South by next weekend and highs will trend back toward normal. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 633 AM Sunday... Generally VFR conditions with some higher cloudiness can be expected through 18z today. The exception will be between 09z and 13z in which some stratus (IFR) is expected. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, with brief IFR conditions possible. Looking beyond 00z Mon, Some lingering storms are expected through 04z/Monday. Otherwise, stratus is possible again around daybreak Monday. Another round of scattered storms is possible at all sites, but mainly RWI/FAY, Monday afternoon. VFR conditions should return Mon night and prevail, with high confidence, through Thu. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett/CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BLS AVIATION...Badgett