839
FXUS62 KRAH 151921
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the
Carolinas throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 148 PM Tuesday...

* Scattered showers and storms again today, with the greatest
  chances in the western Piedmont

* Locally heavy rain possible, resulting in isolated flash flooding

Early afternoon water vapor imagery reveals weak flow aloft, with NC
sandwiched between weak southwesterly flow to our west and light
northeasterly flow to our east. Convection from earlier this morning
has dissipated although it hasn`t taken long for new showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Most of the new convective development is
on the periphery of where we had precip this morning, with areas
along and west of I-85 filling in as early as noon, while a few
storms have initiated across the southern Coastal Plain. While some
cu have developed along the US-1 corridor, storm development has
been slow thus far, which isn`t overly surprising. Temperatures area-
wide are generally in the mid to upper 80s, with dewpoints generally
in the low to mid 70s.

For the rest of the afternoon into the evening, expect additional
shower/thunderstorm development, primarily across the western
Piedmont within an area of 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE and 1.8-1.9" PW`s
in closest proximity to the Piedmont trough. Convection is also
likely to initiate across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills in the
vicinity of where the morning round of showers dissipated (roughly
Hwy 24/27). The biggest forecast uncertainty is in between those two
areas, where the atmosphere was overturned earlier today but is
showing signs of recovery. The SPC mesoanalysis page suggests any
CIN from this morning has already eroded, but that may be missing
some details and may be an artifact of the 40km nature of the
mesoanalysis grid. One would expect showers and storms to already be
ongoing across the Triangle if CIN had indeed eroded, and that`s
clearly not the case. Nonetheless, I`m going to maintain the highest
PoPs in the CWA in the western Piedmont, another swath of elevated
values across the Sandhills/southern Coastal Plain, with some 30-40
percent values along US-1. It`s hard to justify completely removing
precip chances across the Triangle given the potential for colliding
outflow boundaries and elevated PW`s. 12Z HREF suggests a relative
minima in the center of the forecast area and our PoPs were tailored
to match its depiction. Showers may linger into the evening hours
before dissipating entirely before midnight.

Primary hazards from any storms today will once again be periods of
heavy rain and flooding, especially in the western Piedmont where
areal coverage will be the greatest. An occasional near-severe gust
is also possible but widespread severe weather is not anticipated
with this afternoon`s storms.

As for temps, looks for lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 PM Tuesday...

* Slightly lower storm chances on Wednesday

* Still hot and humid

Areal coverage of showers and storms should be a bit less on
Wednesday as upper ridging strengthens across the area. This will
push the highest PW values into the western Piedmont, once again
making them the primary focal area for shower and thunderstorm
development with somewhat lesser coverage elsewhere. Sea breeze
initiated convection is possible across the southern Coastal Plain,
with the center part of the state potentially seeing fewer storms
than others. This areal coverage is supported by the 12Z HREF and
other hi-res guidance, and closely resembles the inherited forecast
as well as NBM.

Temperatures should be a bit warmer than those seen today, with
highs reaching the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows once again falling
into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 148 PM Tuesday...

* Diurnal showers/storms possible each day through the extended
  period.

* Hot and humid conditions expected each day, with potentially
  dangerous heat this weekend.

Thursday and Friday, high pressure will move westward off the
Atlantic Ocean into the southeast United States. This should
somewhat limit the diurnally induced showers/storms over central
North Carolina, especially closer to the center of the high pressure
in the southeast portions of the CWA. Saturday should have
increasing diurnal rain chances as a shortwave trough looks like it
could reach the region from the north. Sunday through Tuesday should
return to riding over the region, however there does not appear to
be a large change in airmass so diurnal shower/storm chances remain
until at least mid-week.

Temperatures will be above normal for the extended period. Maximum
temperatures look to be in the low to mid 90s each day of the long
term period, with the potential for temperatures in the upper 90s in
the warmest spots in the south Friday through Sunday. This will
combine with high humidity values to increase heat indices to
potentially dangerous levels. The maximum heat indices may be near
or above 100 degrees for much of central North Carolina for the
majority of the long term. Heat advisory apparent temperature
criteria (105 to 109 degrees) may be met this weekend for eastern
portions of central North Carolina.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

Another round of afternoon and evening storms is expected this
afternoon and early evening, with the greatest coverage coverage
expected across the western Piedmont terminals(KINT and KGSO). Storm
activity should diminish after sunset.

Model guidance continues to indicate the potential for areas of low
stratus to develop between 06 to 12z, leading to a period of MVFR to
IFR restrictions. These restrictions should lift by mid to late
Wednesday morning(13 to 16z), returning conditions to VFR.

Shower and storm coverage is expected to be lower on Wednesday, with
the best chances focused along the inland-moving seabreeze, mainly
impacting the eastern terminals(KRWI and KFAY).

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
support a typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening convection, along with patchy late night and
early morning fog and stratus through the end of the week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...CBL/Badgett