Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
956
UXUS97 KPUB 151209
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0608 MDT Thursday, August 15, 2024

This forecast is for Villa Grove, CO for Thursday, August 15, 2024:

If the trigger temperature of 64.4 F/18.0 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 983 ft/min (5.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 19965 ft MSL (10990 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 80.0 F/27.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0930 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 18362 ft MSL (9387 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 08/16....... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:19:05 / 19:56:45 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 37 min 41 sec (817 min 41 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:07:55 MDT... 65.38 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 08/15/2024 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 15475 ft MSL (6500 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 16700 ft MSL (7725 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 19327 ft MSL (10351 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.9
K index......................... -1.4

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -63.8 -82.8   285   28   15   1.4   0.7      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -59.2 -74.6   280   41   21   6.1   3.4      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -49.9 -57.8   285   49   25   6.5   3.5      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -46.0 -50.8   280   48   25   6.5   3.5      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -42.1 -43.8   280   47   24   6.5   3.6      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -37.2 -35.0   285   46   24   7.3   4.0      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -32.8 -27.0   290   46   24   7.3   4.0      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -28.6 -19.5   290   44   23   7.0   3.8   35.8  96.4     7.2      M    M
 29000  -26.5 -15.7   290   43   22   7.0   3.8   34.8  94.7     6.5      M    M
 28000  -24.4 -11.9   290   42   22   7.2   3.9   33.9  93.0     5.9      M    M
 27000  -22.2  -8.0   290   42   22   7.2   3.9   32.8  91.1     5.1      M    M
 26000  -20.1  -4.2   290   43   22   7.2   3.9   31.9  89.4     4.3      M    M
 25000  -17.9  -0.2   290   43   22   7.6   4.2   31.1  88.0     3.7      M    M
 24000  -15.4   4.3   290   43   22   8.5   4.6   30.5  86.9     3.3      M    M
 23000  -12.9   8.8   295   43   22   8.5   4.7   30.1  86.1     2.9      M    M
 22000  -10.3  13.5   295   44   22   7.2   4.0   29.7  85.5     2.7      M    M
 21000   -8.6  16.5   290   38   20   5.6   3.1   28.2  82.8     1.4      M    M
 20000   -6.9  19.6   290   33   17   5.7   3.1   26.8  80.3     0.1      M    M
 19500   -6.1  21.0   290   30   15   6.1   3.4   26.2  79.2    -0.5    952  4.8
 19000   -5.5  22.1   290   27   14   2.2   1.2   25.3  77.5    -1.3    920  4.7
 18500   -5.2  22.6   290   24   12   2.8   1.6   24.1  75.4    -2.5    894  4.5
 18000   -4.8  23.4   290   21   11   3.7   2.0   23.0  73.4    -3.6    869  4.4
 17500   -4.2  24.4   295   18    9   4.6   2.5   22.1  71.8    -4.5    836  4.2
 17000   -3.6  25.5   300   16    8   4.4   2.4   21.3  70.3    -5.4    802  4.1
 16500   -2.7  27.1   305   14    7   8.0   4.4   20.7  69.2    -6.0    761  3.9
 16000   -1.0  30.2   315   12    6   7.7   4.2   20.2  68.3    -6.5    687  3.5
 15500    0.2  32.4   315   11    6   8.2   4.5   19.9  67.8    -6.8    637  3.2
 15000    1.4  34.5   315   11    6   8.3   4.5   19.6  67.3    -7.1    586  3.0
 14500    2.6  36.7   310   11    5   7.8   4.3   19.3  66.8    -7.5    537  2.7
 14000    3.8  38.8   310   11    6   8.4   4.6   19.1  66.4    -7.7    485  2.5
 13500    5.0  41.0   305   11    6   9.3   5.1   18.9  66.1    -8.0    434  2.2
 13000    6.2  43.2   310   11    6   7.0   3.9   18.7  65.6    -8.4    384  2.0
 12500    7.2  45.0   310   11    6   7.9   4.3   18.3  65.0    -8.9    340  1.7
 12000    8.3  46.9   315   11    5   8.1   4.4   18.1  64.6    -9.3    290  1.5
 11750    8.9  48.0   315   10    5   7.9   4.3   17.9  64.3    -9.5    266  1.4
 11500    9.4  48.9   320   10    5   7.2   3.9   17.8  64.0    -9.7    243  1.2
 11250    9.9  49.8   320    9    5   6.6   3.6   17.6  63.6   -10.0    221  1.1
 11000   10.4  50.7   325    8    4   6.2   3.4   17.3  63.2   -10.2    199  1.0
 10750   10.8  51.4   330    8    4   8.5   4.7   17.1  62.8   -10.5    178  0.9
 10500   11.5  52.7   335    7    4   6.1   3.4   17.0  62.6   -10.6    152  0.8
 10250   11.7  53.1   340    6    3   2.3   1.3   16.5  61.7   -11.2    138  0.7
 10000   11.9  53.4   345    6    3   1.8   1.0   16.0  60.7   -11.8    125  0.6
  9750   12.0  53.6   345    5    3   6.8   3.7   15.4  59.8   -12.4    112  0.6
  9500   12.5  54.5   350    4    2  -2.5  -1.4   15.2  59.3   -12.7     92  0.5
  9250   11.1  52.0   335    3    2 -33.3 -18.3   13.0  55.5   -14.8    126  0.6
  9000    9.7  49.5   305    3    1  26.0  14.3   10.9  51.7   -17.0    160  0.8
  8750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  8500      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  8250      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  8000      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           08/15/2024 at 0900 MDT          |       08/15/2024 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...   +64.2    LI...       +0.7        | CAPE...   +23.2    LI...       +0.9
CINH...   -28.9    K Index...  -8.2        | CINH...     0.0    K Index...  +2.4
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -63.6 -82.5  280  24 12   1.6   0.9 | -63.4 -82.1  265  23 12   1.8   1.0
 45000 -58.9 -74.0  275  38 20   6.1   3.4 | -58.5 -73.3  265  37 19   6.0   3.3
 40000 -49.3 -56.7  275  47 24   6.1   3.4 | -49.1 -56.4  265  43 22   6.1   3.4
 38000 -45.6 -50.1  280  45 23   6.1   3.4 | -45.4 -49.7  270  42 21   6.1   3.4
 36000 -41.9 -43.4  280  44 23   6.4   3.5 | -41.7 -43.1  275  40 21   6.4   3.5
 34000 -37.8 -36.0  285  43 22   6.9   3.8 | -37.7 -35.9  280  38 20   6.8   3.7
 32000 -33.7 -28.7  290  42 21   7.0   3.8 | -33.6 -28.5  285  37 19   6.8   3.7
 30000 -29.3 -20.7  290  39 20   7.3   4.0 | -29.3 -20.7  285  35 18   7.4   4.0
 29000 -27.2 -17.0  285  38 19   7.3   4.0 | -26.5 -15.7  280  33 17   7.4   4.0
 28000 -25.0 -13.0  285  36 19   7.2   4.0 | -24.3 -11.7  280  33 17   7.3   4.0
 27000 -22.3  -8.1  285  37 19   7.2   4.0 | -22.1  -7.8  280  33 17   7.3   4.0
 26000 -20.1  -4.2  285  38 19   7.2   4.0 | -19.9  -3.8  280  33 17   7.3   4.0
 25000 -18.0  -0.4  285  38 20   7.3   4.0 | -17.7   0.1  280  33 17   7.2   4.0
 24000 -15.7   3.7  285  38 20   7.4   4.1 | -15.6   3.9  280  33 17   7.1   3.9
 23000 -13.5   7.7  285  38 19   7.4   4.1 | -13.5   7.7  285  34 17   7.1   3.9
 22000 -11.3  11.7  285  38 19   6.7   3.7 | -11.4  11.5  285  34 18   6.5   3.6
 21000  -9.4  15.1  285  35 18   6.4   3.5 |  -9.5  14.9  280  33 17   6.2   3.4
 20000  -7.5  18.5  290  33 17   6.4   3.5 |  -7.7  18.1  280  31 16   6.2   3.4
 19500  -6.5  20.3  290  32 16   6.1   3.3 |  -6.7  19.9  280  31 16   5.8   3.2
 19000  -5.9  21.4  290  29 15   2.9   1.6 |  -6.1  21.0  280  28 15   3.1   1.7
 18500  -5.5  22.1  295  26 13   3.3   1.8 |  -5.7  21.7  280  26 13   3.3   1.8
 18000  -5.0  23.0  295  23 12   4.9   2.7 |  -5.2  22.6  285  23 12   5.0   2.7
 17500  -4.2  24.4  295  21 11   5.6   3.1 |  -4.4  24.1  285  21 11   5.7   3.1
 17000  -3.5  25.7  295  18  9   5.9   3.2 |  -3.6  25.5  290  19 10   6.3   3.4
 16500  -2.6  27.3  295  16  8   6.9   3.8 |  -2.7  27.1  290  17  9   8.0   4.4
 16000  -1.6  29.1  290  13  7   6.8   3.7 |  -1.6  29.1  290  14  7   8.0   4.4
 15500  -0.5  31.1  285  10  5   8.3   4.5 |  -0.4  31.3  285  12  6   9.3   5.1
 15000   0.7  33.3  290   8  4   8.3   4.6 |   0.9  33.6  275  10  5   9.4   5.1
 14500   2.0  35.6  300   6  3   6.5   3.6 |   2.9  37.2  265   9  4   9.5   5.2
 14000   3.7  38.7  315   6  3   8.6   4.7 |   4.4  39.9  260   8  4   9.9   5.4
 13500   5.0  41.0  325   6  3   9.9   5.4 |   6.0  42.8  260   8  4  11.3   6.2
 13000   6.3  43.3  330   6  3   7.9   4.3 |   7.4  45.3  255   7  4   8.5   4.7
 12500   7.5  45.5  330   6  3   8.3   4.6 |   8.8  47.8  255   7  3  10.3   5.6
 12000   8.6  47.5  325   5  3   8.3   4.6 |  10.4  50.7  255   6  3   9.6   5.3
 11750   9.2  48.6  325   5  3   8.2   4.5 |  11.0  51.8  255   6  3   8.4   4.6
 11500   9.8  49.6  320   5  3   8.2   4.5 |  11.7  53.1  255   6  3   9.6   5.3
 11250  10.3  50.5  310   5  3   8.2   4.5 |  12.5  54.5  255   6  3  10.1   5.6
 11000  10.9  51.6  305   6  3   8.1   4.4 |  13.2  55.8  250   6  3  10.0   5.5
 10750  11.4  52.5  300   6  3   8.8   4.8 |  14.0  57.2  250   6  3  10.2   5.6
 10500  12.0  53.6  295   6  3   8.2   4.5 |  14.7  58.5  250   5  3  10.9   6.0
 10250  12.6  54.7  290   6  3   7.2   4.0 |  15.6  60.1  250   5  3  11.1   6.1
 10000  13.1  55.6  285   5  3   7.4   4.1 |  16.4  61.5  250   5  3  11.4   6.3
  9750  13.6  56.5  280   5  3   7.7   4.2 |  17.2  63.0  250   5  2   9.8   5.3
  9500  14.2  57.6  275   5  2  11.5   6.3 |  18.0  64.4  250   5  2  15.7   8.6
  9250  15.2  59.4  270   4  2  16.6   9.1 |  19.7  67.5  250   4  2  30.6  16.8
  9000  16.2  61.2  265   3  2   7.9   4.3 |  21.4  70.5  250   4  2   2.9   1.6
  8750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  8500     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  8250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  8000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           08/15/2024 at 1500 MDT          |       08/15/2024 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...  +147.8    LI...       -1.3        | CAPE...  +280.4    LI...       -1.4
CINH...    -0.4    K Index... +23.6        | CINH...   -15.5    K Index... +26.7
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -63.4 -82.1  275  17  9   1.9   1.1 | -62.9 -81.2  280  15  8   2.0   1.1
 45000 -58.7 -73.7  275  30 15   5.3   2.9 | -58.2 -72.8  280  28 14   5.3   2.9
 40000 -50.0 -58.0  265  43 22   6.8   3.7 | -49.5 -57.1  275  49 25   6.5   3.5
 38000 -45.9 -50.6  265  42 22   6.8   3.7 | -45.6 -50.1  270  49 25   6.5   3.5
 36000 -41.8 -43.2  265  42 21   6.9   3.8 | -41.8 -43.2  270  49 25   6.5   3.6
 34000 -37.6 -35.7  270  39 20   7.0   3.8 | -37.8 -36.0  275  46 24   6.7   3.7
 32000 -33.4 -28.1  280  37 19   7.1   3.9 | -33.8 -28.8  285  44 23   6.7   3.7
 30000 -29.1 -20.4  280  33 17   7.2   3.9 | -29.5 -21.1  285  39 20   7.3   4.0
 29000 -27.0 -16.6  280  31 16   7.2   3.9 | -26.7 -16.1  280  35 18   7.3   4.0
 28000 -24.3 -11.7  280  30 15   7.2   4.0 | -24.5 -12.1  280  33 17   7.6   4.2
 27000 -22.1  -7.8  280  30 15   7.2   4.0 | -22.2  -8.0  275  32 16   7.6   4.2
 26000 -20.0  -4.0  275  30 15   7.2   4.0 | -19.9  -3.8  275  31 16   7.6   4.2
 25000 -17.8  -0.0  275  30 15   7.2   4.0 | -17.7   0.1  270  30 15   7.3   4.0
 24000 -15.7   3.7  275  31 16   7.2   4.0 | -15.5   4.1  275  30 15   7.2   3.9
 23000 -13.5   7.7  280  31 16   7.2   4.0 | -13.4   7.9  275  30 15   7.2   3.9
 22000 -11.4  11.5  280  32 16   5.7   3.1 | -11.3  11.7  275  29 15   6.6   3.6
 21000  -9.9  14.2  275  30 16   5.4   3.0 |  -9.5  14.9  275  28 14   6.6   3.6
 20000  -8.4  16.9  275  29 15   5.7   3.1 |  -7.6  18.3  270  27 14   7.0   3.8
 19500  -7.6  18.3  275  28 15   5.9   3.3 |  -6.7  19.9  265  26 13   7.2   3.9
 19000  -6.8  19.8  275  25 13   6.2   3.4 |  -5.8  21.6  265  23 12   6.5   3.6
 18500  -6.0  21.2  275  21 11   6.2   3.4 |  -4.9  23.2  265  20 10   6.5   3.6
 18000  -5.1  22.8  275  17  9   8.3   4.6 |  -3.9  25.0  260  17  9   8.1   4.4
 17500  -3.8  25.2  275  15  8   8.8   4.8 |  -2.7  27.1  265  15  8   8.5   4.7
 17000  -2.5  27.5  270  13  7   9.0   4.9 |  -1.5  29.3  265  14  7   8.5   4.7
 16500  -1.2  29.8  270  12  6   9.4   5.2 |  -0.3  31.5  265  12  6   8.1   4.4
 16000   0.2  32.4  265  11  5   9.4   5.1 |   0.9  33.6  265  11  6   8.1   4.5
 15500   1.6  34.9  260  10  5   9.4   5.1 |   2.1  35.8  260  10  5   8.3   4.6
 15000   3.0  37.4  255  10  5   9.4   5.2 |   4.0  39.2  260   9  5   8.3   4.6
 14500   5.0  41.0  250  10  5   9.5   5.2 |   5.2  41.4  255   9  5   8.4   4.6
 14000   6.5  43.7  250  10  5   9.6   5.3 |   6.5  43.7  250  10  5   8.4   4.6
 13500   8.0  46.4  245  10  5  11.3   6.2 |   7.8  46.0  250  11  6   9.9   5.5
 13000   9.5  49.1  245   9  5   8.7   4.8 |   9.1  48.4  240  12  6   8.1   4.4
 12500  10.9  51.6  240   9  5   9.7   5.3 |  10.4  50.7  235  12  6   9.1   5.0
 12000  12.3  54.1  240   9  5   9.9   5.4 |  11.7  53.1  230  13  7   9.0   5.0
 11750  13.1  55.6  240   9  5   9.8   5.4 |  12.4  54.3  230  13  7   8.6   4.7
 11500  13.8  56.8  235   9  5   9.7   5.3 |  13.0  55.4  230  13  7   9.2   5.0
 11250  14.5  58.1  235   9  5   9.5   5.2 |  13.8  56.8  230  13  7   9.6   5.2
 11000  15.2  59.4  235   9  5   9.6   5.2 |  14.5  58.1  225  13  7   9.4   5.2
 10750  15.9  60.6  235   9  5  10.5   5.8 |  15.2  59.4  225  13  6  10.3   5.7
 10500  16.8  62.2  235   9  5  10.9   6.0 |  16.0  60.8  225  13  6  10.8   5.9
 10250  17.5  63.5  235   9  4  10.3   5.6 |  16.8  62.2  225  12  6  10.3   5.7
 10000  18.3  64.9  230   8  4  10.8   5.9 |  17.5  63.5  225  12  6  10.8   5.9
  9750  19.1  66.4  230   8  4   9.2   5.0 |  18.3  64.9  225  12  6   9.3   5.1
  9500  19.9  67.8  230   8  4  15.5   8.5 |  19.0  66.2  220  12  6  11.8   6.5
  9250  21.6  70.9  230   8  4  30.6  16.8 |  20.2  68.4  220  10  5  20.5  11.2
  9000  23.3  73.9  230   7  4   2.6   1.5 |  21.4  70.5  220   9  4   4.0   2.2
  8750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  8500     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  8250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  8000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC).  It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near Villa Grove, Colorado at:

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 16 min 03 sec
                   West Longitude: 105 deg 53 min 37 sec
                   Elevation: 7986 feet (2434 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613