858
FXUS65 KPUB 102007
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
207 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Damaging winds expected with thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening over the plains.

- Cooler with thunderstorms tomorrow, especially late afternoon
  into evening hours; some strong.

- Daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
  expected for the long term period.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Main concern today is potential for damaging winds with thunderstorm
activity over the plains, Point soundings showing mixing all the way
up to 500 mb and a rather impressive short wave will cross the
region this afternoon. This lift combined with a very well mixed BL
up ot 500 mb will allow for plenty of DCAPE which will likely
produce very strong surface winds over the plains this afternoon and
evening. Wind gusts to 60 to 75 mph with gusts potential to 90 mph
cant be ruled out. Most of CO Plains outlooked with SPC hatched wind
area (>75 mph) over most of plains.

Activity should push relatively quickly out of the region by early
to mid evening with clearing skies tonight.

Red Flag conditions will continue over the mtns/valleys the rest of
today into this evening.

A cool front will cross the plains late this evening into the early
morning hours, brining increasing LLVL moisture to the region.

Tomorrow...Thunderstorms will be slow to start tomorrow, with the
brunt of the activity expected staring very late tomorrow afternoon
and then pushing out onto the plains during the evening hours.
Storms tomorrow will have the potential to be on the stronger side
once again, but more importantly, will have the potential to bring
more beneficial rain to the region given the more favorable moist
low level environment.

It will be noticeably cooler tomorrow across the region with highs
in the 80s and 90s plains.

Tomorrow evening a line of storms will move across the plains
brining the potential of strong gusty winds, locally heavy rain,
marginally severe hail and lightning to the lower elevations. Storms
will likely linger into the overnight hours tomorrow. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

riday Night - Wednesday: For the long term period, active is still
expected each day, with afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms for portions of south central and southeastern
Colorado. Messy westerly to northerly flow will be in place over the
region as a ridge of high pressure sits across the southwest US.
While no major forcing is expected, orographic forcing will be in
place each day, along with a brief period of heightened forcing from
a frontal passage late Friday. These forcing mechanisms, along with
moisture in place each day, will allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to blossom each afternoon and persist into the evening
hours. The greatest coverage of showers and storms is expected to
remain along the mountains, where forcing will greatest. Like most
summer days, a strong thunderstorms or two can`t be ruled out, with
frequent lightning, gusty outflow winds, small hail, and brief
periods of heavy rain the most likely hazards from any stronger
storms. Beyond all of that, breezy winds and increased afternoon and
evening cloud cover are anticipated through this timeframe. As for
temperatures, Saturday is expected to be the coolest day, with below
seasonal temperatures anticipated thanks to the aforementioned cold
frontal passage late Friday. Then for the rest of the period,
near seasonal temperatures return for south central and
southeastern Colorado, though there are hints at another
possible cold front passage during the end of this period.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Main concern today is downburst winds from virga/-tsra.
Downburst has just occurred vicinity of KPUB as I write with
60-70 mph winds verified just west of weather office. This
downburst/strong wind threat will be over the KCOS/KPUB area
through the early and mid afternoon time period as a wx
disturbance moves through.

Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with diurnal wind flow outside
of the virga/tsra activity.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-223-
224.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH/MOZLEY