805
FXUS65 KPUB 160500
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1100 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (less than 20 percent) for a storm this evening
  I-25 corridor and southeast plains.

- Dry and hot both Friday and Saturday.

- Moisture returns Sunday, with above normal temperatures and
  daily chances for showers and thunderstorms persisting
  through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Generally dry and warm across the area today, with little/no
convection even over the mountains, as wly flow has cut off
low/mid level moisture across much of srn CO. A few hints of
some deeper surface moisture/instability returning into nern NM
this afternoon, and some of this may leak northward over the
Raton Mesa into into the srn I-25 corridor and the plains this
evening and overnight. As a result, HRRR has some isolated
convection developing around Pueblo/Colorado Springs 02z-04z,
then sliding eastward onto the plains late evening and
overnight. Will keep some low pops in place to account for this
possibility, though storm strength/coverage may be limited by
relatively low (CAPE 300-600 J/KG) instability.

On Friday, upper ridge begins to build over Colorado, and with
rising heights and continued dry air mass, expect another day of
limited/no convection across much of the region. Some deeper
low level moisture may sneak back into the far eastern plains
late in the day as surface winds turn more n-ne, but any forcing
for precip looks weak and farther east, so will keep the dry
forecast in place at this point. Max temps will climb upward a
few degf given warming mid-levels, and a few spots over the
lower Arkansas Valley may get close to 100f by late afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Our Friday night through Saturday weather will be dominated by high
pressure sitting over New Mexico on Friday and meandering northwards
towards the Colorado and New Mexico border by Saturday. This system
will bring above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions to
our plains, with only very isolated showers and thunderstorms over
the high country for Saturday. Overnight lows on Friday night look
to be near to just slightly above normal thanks to dry conditions
and efficient cooling, while daytime highs on Saturday look to rise
to around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This means highs in the mid
90s to low 100s across the plains, mid 80s to low 90s for mountain
valleys, and 70s for higher terrain locations. Though relative
humidity values look to fall into the low teens through Saturday
afternoon, winds are expected to remain below critical fire weather
thresholds.

Sunday..

Sunday is a bit of a transition day, as models begin to bring a low
onshore over the Pacific Northwest, which will shunt the high off to
our southeast a bit as we get into the beginning of next week. This
will eventually open up the monsoonal moisture tap over our region.
For Sunday, models indicate that the beginning of this monsoonal
moisture should start to work its way into the high country, as we
remain situated along the northwestern periphery of the high. This
setup could lead to the possibility of a few showers and storms
pushing into the mountain adjacent plains through Sunday afternoon
and Sunday evening as well, though the best chances for moisture
will remain over the mountains for Sunday. Daytime highs look to
remain around 4 to 8 degrees above normal for Sunday, though we will
see a slight decrease from expected temperatures on Saturday,
especially over and near the mountains where convective cloud cover
will help to keep us cooler through the hottest part of the day. Our
far eastern plains could still see triple digits under mostly sunny
skies, but the majority of the I-25 corridor should top out in the
90s, with mountain valleys in the 80s and higher terrain locations
in the 70s.

Monday Onwards..

By Monday, models indicate that we transition to a pattern of
slightly above normal temperatures and daily chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, especially over and near the higher
terrain, thanks to the return of monsoonal moisture over the region.
Ensembles, especially GEFS members, show a strong signal for PWAT
anomalies exceeding the 100-140% range beginning Sunday and
persisting all the way through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1059 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be light
(mostly less than 10 kts) and diurnally influenced at all terminals.
There will be some gusty winds during the afternoon hours tomorrow
at KCOS and KPUB. -Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...STEWARD