565
FXUS65 KPUB 150959
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
359 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms next 24 hours will be few and far between, and
  it is expected to be a later show.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms start increasing in coverage
  Friday, with chances remaining heightened Saturday through
  Wednesday.

- Much of the region will warm to above seasonal temperatures
  Friday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 357 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Currently...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were still ongoing across
the far eastern plains at 2 AM this morning. These storms were
associated with a weak disturbance moving east across the far
eastern plains. Besides the cloudiness associated with the showers,
skies were mostly clear across the fcst area. Temps at this hour
were mainly in the 60s across the plains and 50s valleys.

Today...

As disturbance passes by early this AM, a modest mid level ridge
will prevail across the region most of today. This will keep storms
at bay most of the day across the region, with only isolated
activity (at best) ovr the higher elevations of the Pikes Peak
region prior to 00 UTC. Max temps today will be about a few degrees
above normal, with mid 80s to lower 90s across the plains and around
80F over the larger valleys.

Tonight...

A better chance of showers and storms will occur later this evening
and into the early AM hours of Friday across the plains, especially
areas along and north of highway 50. This activity may last to
towards sunrise over the far eastern plains. Otherwise expect mostly
clear skies tonight with min temps in the 50s to lower 60s plains
and 40s valleys.

If storms do develop later today through tonight, they are not
anticipated to be severe, and significant heavy rain is not
anticipated. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 357 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Friday - Wednesday: For the long term period, a relatively
consistent pattern will be in place over south central and
southeastern Colorado as a monsoon pattern returns. A ridge of high
pressure will start to return Friday and quickly expand over the
weekend and persist through at least mid next week. Ensemble model
guidance are in strong agreement about this, leading to high to very
high (>60%) confidence in this pattern evolution. While the
ridge establishes itself, moisture will start to stream into the
feature and over the region, especially during the Saturday
through Wednesday timeframe. While no major forcing is
anticipated, minor orographic forcing and diurnal upsloping,
along with the surge in moisture, will allow for daily afternoon
rain showers and thunderstorms to blossom. The greatest
coverage of precipitation will be along the mountains, and
especially the Continental Divide area, where moisture return
will be greatest. With that all said, afternoon showers and
storms will dissipate during the evening hours as instability
and forcing lessen. As for temperatures, a warm stretch of days
is expected. With the ridge in place, much of the area will warm
to above seasonal temperatures for mid to late August.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout most of the forecast period. There is a
very low probability (less than 20%) of VCSH/VCTS at KCOS from 21Z
and 05Z, and even less confidence at KPUB and KALS. If some of these
tstms move overhead, it could produce brief heavy amounts of RA and
possible GS/GR, with temporary IFR/LIFR conditions. There could also
be strong outflows associated with these, even if tstms do not move
directly overhead. Winds will be primarily influenced by diurnal
wind regimes throughout the forecast period at all terminals.
-Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH