Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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834 FXUS65 KPUB 151729 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1129 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms the next 24 hours will be few and far between, best chance (less than 20 percent) for a storm will be this evening along the I-25 corridor. - Rain showers and thunderstorms start increasing in coverage Friday, with chances remaining heightened Saturday through Wednesday. - Much of the region will warm to above seasonal temperatures Friday through Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 357 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Currently... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were still ongoing across the far eastern plains at 2 AM this morning. These storms were associated with a weak disturbance moving east across the far eastern plains. Besides the cloudiness associated with the showers, skies were mostly clear across the fcst area. Temps at this hour were mainly in the 60s across the plains and 50s valleys. Today... As disturbance passes by early this AM, a modest mid level ridge will prevail across the region most of today. This will keep storms at bay most of the day across the region, with only isolated activity (at best) ovr the higher elevations of the Pikes Peak region prior to 00 UTC. Max temps today will be about a few degrees above normal, with mid 80s to lower 90s across the plains and around 80F over the larger valleys. Tonight... A better chance of showers and storms will occur later this evening and into the early AM hours of Friday across the plains, especially areas along and north of highway 50. This activity may last to towards sunrise over the far eastern plains. Otherwise expect mostly clear skies tonight with min temps in the 50s to lower 60s plains and 40s valleys. If storms do develop later today through tonight, they are not anticipated to be severe, and significant heavy rain is not anticipated. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 357 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Friday - Wednesday: For the long term period, a relatively consistent pattern will be in place over south central and southeastern Colorado as a monsoon pattern returns. A ridge of high pressure will start to return Friday and quickly expand over the weekend and persist through at least mid next week. Ensemble model guidance are in strong agreement about this, leading to high to very high (>60%) confidence in this pattern evolution. While the ridge establishes itself, moisture will start to stream into the feature and over the region, especially during the Saturday through Wednesday timeframe. While no major forcing is anticipated, minor orographic forcing and diurnal upsloping, along with the surge in moisture, will allow for daily afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms to blossom. The greatest coverage of precipitation will be along the mountains, and especially the Continental Divide area, where moisture return will be greatest. With that all said, afternoon showers and storms will dissipate during the evening hours as instability and forcing lessen. As for temperatures, a warm stretch of days is expected. With the ridge in place, much of the area will warm to above seasonal temperatures for mid to late August. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours at all sites. Winds will follow the usual diurnal cycle, with some brief gusts to 20 kts at KCOS and KPUB this afternoon. A few models show a low chance (less than 20 percent) of a shra/-tsra at KCOS and/or KPUB in the 00z-04z period this evening, though confidence in this occuring is low enough to leave out of the forecast at this point. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...