![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
757 FXUS65 KPUB 111718 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1118 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures warm closer to normal for most locations today, with decreasing thunderstorm coverage and increasing thunderstorm intensity for some areas. - Showers and thunderstorms continue through much of the extended period, especially through Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 343 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Currently.. Still quite a bit of activity on satellite and radar as of 3am this morning. Showers are pushing across the Continental Divide and into the mountain adjacent plains, with embedded thunderstorm activity still ongoing over our southeastern mountains. A small band of weak thunderstorms is working its way across Baca County as well. Low stratus has developed elsewhere across the plains, with Lamar and La Junta both reporting ceilings below 1000 feet. Temperatures are fairly uniform under cloud cover, with most plain locations in the low to mid 60s and higher terrain locations in the 50s. Today and Tonight.. This morning`s rain showers and lingering thunderstorm activity is not expected to survive much longer, as models point towards convection diminishing by around 6 am or so at the latest. Stratus and mist could persist a few hours longer, until closer ot 8 or 9 am across of the plains, though many areas will likely begin to see improvement quickly after sunrise given the time of year. With increasing northwest flow aloft and drier air beginning to make its way into our region, temperatures are expected to warm to near normal this afternoon, with lower humidity values and continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Highs look to reach into the mid 80s to mid 90s across our plains, under decreasing cloud cover throughout much of the day. Temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s are expected for mountain valleys, with 50s and 60s expected for higher terrain locations. With drier air pushing in, thunderstorm coverage is expected to decrease today, though storm intensity is likely to increase somewhat for some locations as well, especially for areas north of highway 50. With increased instability today, heavy rain will continue to be a risk with storms over both the high country and the plains alike. A few stronger storms could also be capable of producing hail up to 1 inch and damaging winds gusting to 60 mph, especially out east near Kiowa County and possibly into Bent and Prowers Counties as well. Northeastern portions of our plains seem to have the most favorable overlap of shear and SBCAPE for severe development late this afternoon and into this evening, with some high res model guidance suggesting that storms could develop to our northwest and push southeast and into these areas later this evening as they intensify. Some guidance keeps showers and storms out over our plains until as late as 3 am or so, though most suggest that many locations should be clear by midnight at the latest. Over night lows look to be fairly close to normal, though still a couple of degrees warmer than this morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 343 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Models are in much better agreement through the extended period than they were last night. The GFS has come more in line with the ECMWF in regards to the upper high strength for mid to late week. Monday into Wednesday...flat high pressure to the south will favor zonal westerly flow across Colorado. Embedded energy is forecast to transit from near the Four Corners region, northeast across the Palmer Divide and into northeast Colorado both Monday into Wednesday. For Monday, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along the Continental Divide, and spread across the Palmer Divide by afternoon. Most model guidance also develops shower and thunderstorm activity across the Raton Mesa. Given the westerly zonal flow aloft, any activity that develops over the higher terrain will spread east into the Plains by evening. Areas north of Highway 50 will likely see the best chances for showers and thunderstorms on Monday. There could also be a period Monday evening out near the Kansas border where a few stronger storms may be possible. Southeasterly convergent flow along with around 1500 j/kg of SBCAPE may allow for stronger storms, before any activity that develops shifts quickly east into Kansas. Pretty similar upper pattern forecast on Tuesday, with main energy track shifting slightly north. Showers and thunderstorms will once again develop along the Continental Divide and spread east into the Palmer Divide and northeast Colorado, with much of the activity remaining north of Highway 50. One last day of zonal flow is expected Wednesday, with energy tracking further south. This will likely lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region, initially developing over the higher terrain, and then spreading across the Plains. The main storm risks will be lightning, gusty outflow winds near 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding on area burn scars and flood prone areas. On Monday, if storms get organized near the Kansas border, hail to near 1 inch in diameter may be possible. Overall, temperatures for early in the week will reach into the 80s to lower 90s across the Plains. Thursday into Sunday...an upper low is forecast ot strengthen over the Pacific Northwest for late in the work week into next weekend. This upper low is forecast to sit off the Washington coast, and will force the development of high pressure across Colorado. The GFS and ECMWF are in much better agreement tonight, with a stronger high pressure centered overhead through the weekend. There should be a notable down trend in showers and thunderstorms beginning Thursday, and prevailing through the weekend. PWAT values are forecast to fall to near half an inch, and only a couple of embedded waves in the weak southwesterly flow will move across the state. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast each day, remaining across the higher terrain, with little eastward movement into the Plains. Temperatures could also be much warmer during this period, reaching back through the 90s with the high pressure overhead. Mozley && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Overall, VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Showers will be possible this afternoon and evening at each of the taf sites, and cannot rule out brief periods of MVFR due to cigs/precip. Some thunder cant be ruled out with the convective activity. Lower cigs and fog are not anticipated later tonight/tomorrow morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...HODANISH