757
FXUS65 KPUB 111718
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1118 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm closer to normal for most locations today,
  with decreasing thunderstorm coverage and increasing
  thunderstorm intensity for some areas.

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through much of the
  extended period, especially through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Currently..

Still quite a bit of activity on satellite and radar as of 3am this
morning. Showers are pushing across the Continental Divide and into
the mountain adjacent plains, with embedded thunderstorm activity
still ongoing over our southeastern mountains. A small band of weak
thunderstorms is working its way across Baca County as well. Low
stratus has developed elsewhere across the plains, with Lamar and La
Junta both reporting ceilings below 1000 feet. Temperatures are
fairly uniform under cloud cover, with most plain locations in the
low to mid 60s and higher terrain locations in the 50s.

Today and Tonight..

This morning`s rain showers and lingering thunderstorm activity is
not expected to survive much longer, as models point towards
convection diminishing by around 6 am or so at the latest. Stratus
and mist could persist a few hours longer, until closer ot 8 or 9 am
across of the plains, though many areas will likely begin to see
improvement quickly after sunrise given the time of year. With
increasing northwest flow aloft and drier air beginning to make its
way into our region, temperatures are expected to warm to near
normal this afternoon, with lower humidity values and continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Highs look to reach into the
mid 80s to mid 90s across our plains, under decreasing cloud cover
throughout much of the day. Temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s
are expected for mountain valleys, with 50s and 60s expected for
higher terrain locations. With drier air pushing in, thunderstorm
coverage is expected to decrease today, though storm intensity is
likely to increase somewhat for some locations as well, especially
for areas north of highway 50. With increased instability today,
heavy rain will continue to be a risk with storms over both the high
country and the plains alike. A few stronger storms could also be
capable of producing hail up to 1 inch and damaging winds gusting to
60 mph, especially out east near Kiowa County and possibly into Bent
and Prowers Counties as well. Northeastern portions of our plains
seem to have the most favorable overlap of shear and SBCAPE for
severe development late this afternoon and into this evening, with
some high res model guidance suggesting that storms could develop to
our northwest and push southeast and into these areas later this
evening as they intensify. Some guidance keeps showers and storms
out over our plains until as late as 3 am or so, though most suggest
that many locations should be clear by midnight at the latest. Over
night lows look to be fairly close to normal, though still a couple
of degrees warmer than this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Models are in much better agreement through the extended period
than they were last night. The GFS has come more in line with
the ECMWF in regards to the upper high strength for mid to late
week.

Monday into Wednesday...flat high pressure to the south will
favor zonal westerly flow across Colorado. Embedded energy is
forecast to transit from near the Four Corners region, northeast
across the Palmer Divide and into northeast Colorado both
Monday into Wednesday. For Monday, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop along the Continental Divide, and
spread across the Palmer Divide by afternoon. Most model
guidance also develops shower and thunderstorm activity across
the Raton Mesa. Given the westerly zonal flow aloft, any
activity that develops over the higher terrain will spread east
into the Plains by evening. Areas north of Highway 50 will
likely see the best chances for showers and thunderstorms on
Monday. There could also be a period Monday evening out near the
Kansas border where a few stronger storms may be possible.
Southeasterly convergent flow along with around 1500 j/kg of
SBCAPE may allow for stronger storms, before any activity that
develops shifts quickly east into Kansas. Pretty similar upper
pattern forecast on Tuesday, with main energy track shifting
slightly north. Showers and thunderstorms will once again
develop along the Continental Divide and spread east into the
Palmer Divide and northeast Colorado, with much of the activity
remaining north of Highway 50. One last day of zonal flow is
expected Wednesday, with energy tracking further south. This
will likely lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms
across the region, initially developing over the higher
terrain, and then spreading across the Plains. The main storm
risks will be lightning, gusty outflow winds near 50 mph and
locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding on area
burn scars and flood prone areas. On Monday, if storms get
organized near the Kansas border, hail to near 1 inch in
diameter may be possible. Overall, temperatures for early in the
week will reach into the 80s to lower 90s across the Plains.

Thursday into Sunday...an upper low is forecast ot strengthen
over the Pacific Northwest for late in the work week into next
weekend. This upper low is forecast to sit off the Washington
coast, and will force the development of high pressure across
Colorado. The GFS and ECMWF are in much better agreement
tonight, with a stronger high pressure centered overhead through
the weekend. There should be a notable down trend in showers
and thunderstorms beginning Thursday, and prevailing through the
weekend. PWAT values are forecast to fall to near half an inch,
and only a couple of embedded waves in the weak southwesterly
flow will move across the state. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are forecast each day, remaining across the
higher terrain, with little eastward movement into the Plains.
Temperatures could also be much warmer during this period,
reaching back through the 90s with the high pressure overhead.
Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Overall, VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at
all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Showers will be possible
this afternoon and evening at each of the taf sites, and cannot
rule out brief periods of MVFR due to cigs/precip. Some thunder
cant be ruled out with the convective activity. Lower cigs and
fog are not anticipated later tonight/tomorrow morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH