809
FXUS65 KPUB 170532
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1132 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot on Saturday, with a slight upturn in thunderstorm chances
  over the mountains, mainly along the Continental Divide.

- Monsoonal moisture returns Sunday, with above normal
  temperatures and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
  persisting through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Currently...Building upper ridge over the area today was suppressing
convection at most locations, and only storms noted at mid-afternoon
were over the OK Panhandle along a weak surface boundary which
slipped through the plains overnight. Despite building
heights/warming mid-levels, afternoon temps have lagged forecasts a
few degf so far today, especially on the plains behind the front.

Tonight...will keep some very low pops going this evening along the
NM and OK border east of Trinidad, as HRRR hints at outflow from
storms to the south potentially forcing a brief/windy storm through
sunset. Elsewhere, expect mostly clear skies and seasonably mild
overnight min temps.

Tonight...Upper ridge continues to build across CO through the day,
with axis drifting slowly eastward toward the KS border by evening.
This set-up should allow at least a minor uptick in available
moisture across the western half of CO, leading to the reappearance
of afternoon thunderstorms, especially along the Continental Divide.
Expect most activity to produce more wind than rain as low levels
will be slow to moisten, with lightning the main hazard with most
storms, especially over any higher exposed peaks. Temperatures
Saturday will climb as heights rise, and maxes deep into the 90s to
low 100s are likely on the plains, with 80s widespread over interior
valleys and lower mountain zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Saturday Night and Sunday..

Overnight low temperatures on Saturday look to remain around 4 to 7
degrees above normal for most locations, which will give way to
continued above normal temperatures for Sunday. Sunday is a bit of a
transition day though, as models begin to bring a low onshore over
the Pacific Northwest which will eventually push the high off to our
southeast as we get into the beginning of next week. This will open
up the monsoonal moisture tap over our region. For Sunday, models
indicate that the beginning of this monsoonal moisture should start
to work its way into the high country, as we remain situated along
the northwestern periphery of the high. This setup could lead to the
possibility of a few showers and storms pushing into the mountain
adjacent plains through Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening as well,
though the best chances for moisture will remain over the mountains
for Sunday. Daytime highs look to remain around 4 to 8 degrees above
normal for Sunday, though we will see a slight decrease from
expected temperatures on Saturday, especially over and near the
mountains where convective cloud cover will help to keep us cooler
through the hottest part of the day. Our far eastern plains could
still see triple digits under mostly sunny skies, but the majority
of the I-25 corridor should top out in the 90s, with mountain
valleys in the 80s and higher terrain locations in the 70s.

Monday Onwards..

By Monday, models indicate that we transition to a pattern of
slightly above normal temperatures and daily chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, especially over and near the higher
terrain, thanks to the return of monsoonal moisture over the region.
Ensembles, especially GEFS members, show a strong signal for PWAT
anomalies exceeding the 100-140% range beginning Sunday and
persisting all the way through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light and
diurnally driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH