163
FXUS65 KPUB 122200
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
400 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash flooding and strong storms possible this afternoon into this
  evening over the plains.

- Strong storms possible once again over plains tomorrow afternoon.

- Drier and warmer through the end of the work week.

- Increasing coverage of daily showers and thunderstorms again for
  the late weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Currently...

Isolated thunderstorms were developing region-wide over the fcst
area at 2 pm. Best overall coverage was up on the north side of the
Pikes peak region and over the San Juans pushing into the San Luis
Valley. A look at the SPC Meso page shows that 20 to 30 knots of
deep shear was noted over all of the plains and adjacent S mtns
along with Sfc based CAPE values of 1000 to 4000 Joules. The best
CAPE was noted over far SE CO plains and was advecting
northwestward.

Rest of Today into Tonight...

Main concern is strong storms developing over the region and they
will be capable of rainfall that could produce flash flooding along
with marginally severe weather. Greatest threat for heavy rain will
generally be over northern El Paso county, Crowley county and
especially Kiowa county. Early this afternoon a theta-e maximum was
advecting northwestward across Baca county, and this unstable air
will continue to advect north and westward during this afternoon.
Instability was increasing (per above discussion), as CAPE values
were between 1000 and 4000 Joules (most unstable far southeast) and
shear values over the far eastern plains were in the 20 to 30 knt
range. A disturbance (per water vap imgy) over the 4 corners region
will continue to move east, and this will allow thunderstorms to
increase in coverage and intensity over the plains as the afternoon
progresses. Based on latest data, the best chance for heavy rain
along the I-25 corridor will be between 5 and 8 pm, with the heavy
rain pushing east-northeast over the eastern plains during the
evening hours.

Storms should end late this evening over most areas, but CONTDVD
region could see occasional showers and storms throughout the
overnight hours. Some areas of low clouds could be over the plains
early tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow...

Coverage of storms tomorrow is expected to be somewhat less than
what will happen today as a bit drier air start to move into the
region. Additionally, temps tomorrow will be about 1 to 3 F warmer
than todays max temps. Additionally, the storms will likely initiate
a bit later in the day as compared to today. Nonetheless, we will
once again see a threat of marginally severe storms (with wind being
the main threat) and more localized heavy rain over the entire
region. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Moderate westerly flow aloft remains progged across the region
through the end of the work week, which will start to scour out and
then keep the monsoonal moisture plume well south of the area
through the end of the work week. There looks to be enough lift and
moisture associated with a passing embedded wave across the Northern
Rockies on Wednesday to support scattered afternoon and evening
showers and storms, with the best coverage expected across the
higher terrain and generally north of the Highway 50 Corridor.

By Thursday and continuing into the early weekend, operational and
ensemble data indicate below seasonal moisture in place across the
Central Rockies, as upper level ridging builds back across the
region. The latest operational GFS is the most aggressive in
bringing back monsoonal into western Colorado by Saturday, where as
the rest of the guidance keeps the plume south and west of the
area through Saturday. With that said, should see a downward trend
in daily convection, with mainly isolated high based showers over
the higher terrain for the end of the work week and into the early
weekend. With the decreased moisture and convection, temperatures
will warm back to above seasonal levels, with highs well into the
90s across the Plains once again. The increased temperatures and
decreased moisture, combined with moderating westerly flow aloft,
will lead to increasing fire danger across the region into the
weekend as well.

By Sunday and continuing into early next week, model data does
support increasing available moisture within southwesterly flow
aloft, as the upper high slowly shifts south and east of the
Central Rockies. This will again lead to a slow increase in
coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms areawide, with
a slow decrease in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 357 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Thunderstorms could impact the terminals through 03z with brief
MVFR cigs/vis from +TSRA. Erratic wind gusts up to 45 kts and
small hail could occur at KCOS or KPUB if a stronger storm
impacts those areas though this is looking less likely as the
focus for storms shift east of the terminals with time. There is
a low end potential for some IFR conditions with stratus and fog
at KCOS, though latest model guidance suggest it should clear by
10-11z if it does occur. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with
another round of thunderstorms possible at the terminals after
21z.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ081-082-084>086-
089-093-095>098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT