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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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178 FXUS65 KPUB 131733 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1133 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall once again possible this afternoon and evening. - A few strong storms possible east of I-25 and north of Highway 50 this afternoon and evening. - Mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Monday, with the greatest coverage over and near the mountains. - Near to slightly below seasonal temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday, with a warm up to above seasonal temperatures for Friday through Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 341 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Currently...satellite imagery early this morning shows an upper ridge axis shifting east across Colorado with increasing southwesterly flow spreading across western portions of the state. Continued embedded energy is producing light rain with isolated thunder along the Continental Divide, east into the San Luis Valley this morning. Expect this activity shift northeast this morning, dissipating by daybreak as it does so. Temperatures remain mild across the Plains with mostly 60s. Moisture remains pooled across the Plains as well, with dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Today...the upper ridge axis will continue shift eastward into the Central Plains by this afternoon. Southwesterly flow is forecast to spread eastward behind the departing upper ridge. Models in good agreement with a strong embedded vort max, forecast to move from near the Four Corners this morning, northeast into northeast Colorado by this evening. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop by mid morning across the higher terrain. This activity will then spread northeast into the Palmer Divide by this afternoon as the upper vort max lifts across the area. Given the upper flow pattern, areas from the Continental Divide, northeast into the Palmer Divide, and north of Highway 50 will see the best chances for thunderstorms with heavy precipitation. PWAT values remain high over the Plains at near 1.5 inches. SBCAPE values over 1000 j/kg will exist across the Plains, however, 0-6 km shear is on the weaker side at 25 to 30 kts. Better conditions look to exist across northeast Colorado. That being said, there is a marginal risk for severe storms, mainly east of I-25, and along and north of Highway 50 across the Plains. All storms today will be capable of heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding on area burn scars and flood prone areas. Stronger storms on the Plains may produce hail to near 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts near 60 mph. South of Highway 50, showers and thunderstorms look to be more limited in coverage, and likely will depend on convection that roles of the higher terrain into the southern I-25 corridor this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will warm back through the 80s to mid 90s across the lower elevations, with 70s across the San Luis Valley. Tonight...the upper vort max will move from northeast Colorado into Nebraska overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will track northeast from the Palmer Divide, across northeast Colorado, and into Nebraska and Kansas overnight. The overall severe threat should diminish around sunset with loss of daytime heating. But areas of locally heavy rainfall will remain possible, especially for areas along and north of Highway 50 through around midnight. Subsidence behind the departing upper vort max will help clear out southern Colorado by Wednesday morning. As flow turns northwesterly, a few light showers and isolated thunder may be possible through the overnight hours along the Continental Divide. Temperatures look to be slightly cooler overnight with upper 50s to mid 60s across the Plains. Mozley && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 341 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Wednesday: The midweek period will bring some active weather to south central and southeastern Colorado. A shortwave trough will be pushing over the region throughout the day. While this feature will bring heightened lift to the area, it will also start to scour out the moisture that has been in place. Given this, afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms are anticipated, though will be more isolated to scattered in nature, and remain mostly along and immediately around the mountains, where forcing will be greatest. While no severe weather is expected, a strong storm or two, capable of producing strong winds and small hail, will be possible given modest shear and instability in place. With that all said, any showers and storms present during the day will dissipate during the evening hours as instability wanes. As for temperatures, a near seasonal day is anticipated. However though, cool outflows from the afternoon showers and storms may help to cool some places for the afternoon. In addition, a cold front will push southward Wednesday night, bringing cooler temperatures for Thursday. Thursday - Monday: For the rest of the long term period, a relatively quieter start will transition into an uptick in activity for the weekend and start of next week. A ridge will slowly start to redevelop behind the exiting shortwave trough from Wednesday. For Thursday and Friday, drier air will remain in place after better moisture was scoured out Wednesday. Given this, much of the area will remain dry, though isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will remain possible along and immediately around the mountains each afternoon. Then for Saturday through Monday, the ridge is expected to continue to expand and moisture is expected to start increasing over the region. Though no major forcing is anticipated, orographic and diurnal forcing, coupled with the uptick in moisture, will allow for showers and storms to expand in coverage again, with the greatest coverage around the Continental Divide area. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning will be possible with any more organized thunderstorms. Like a typical Summer pattern though, any showers and storms present during the afternoon will start to dissipate during the evening hours as instability lessens. Looking at temperatures, Thursday will be the coolest day thanks to the cold front passage late Wednesday night, keeping temperatures at or slightly below seasonal values. Beyond Thursday, a slow warmup is expected as the ridge rebuilds. Much of the region will start to warm to above seasonal temperatures for mid August. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 At KALS, vcts 20z-02z, with erratic/gusty winds the main storm hazard. VFR overnight into Wed, with only very isolated convection expected Wed afternoon. At KPUB and KCOS, vcts at both sites 21z-03z, with tempo tsra and a brief period of MVFR vis possible as stronger storms move through 22z-02z. VFR overnight with convective debris clouds slowly diminishing into Wed morning. Lesser chance for convection Wed afternoon as air mass begins to dry out. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...PETERSEN