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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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805 FXUS65 KPUB 160500 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1100 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance (less than 20 percent) for a storm this evening I-25 corridor and southeast plains. - Dry and hot both Friday and Saturday. - Moisture returns Sunday, with above normal temperatures and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms persisting through next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 228 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Generally dry and warm across the area today, with little/no convection even over the mountains, as wly flow has cut off low/mid level moisture across much of srn CO. A few hints of some deeper surface moisture/instability returning into nern NM this afternoon, and some of this may leak northward over the Raton Mesa into into the srn I-25 corridor and the plains this evening and overnight. As a result, HRRR has some isolated convection developing around Pueblo/Colorado Springs 02z-04z, then sliding eastward onto the plains late evening and overnight. Will keep some low pops in place to account for this possibility, though storm strength/coverage may be limited by relatively low (CAPE 300-600 J/KG) instability. On Friday, upper ridge begins to build over Colorado, and with rising heights and continued dry air mass, expect another day of limited/no convection across much of the region. Some deeper low level moisture may sneak back into the far eastern plains late in the day as surface winds turn more n-ne, but any forcing for precip looks weak and farther east, so will keep the dry forecast in place at this point. Max temps will climb upward a few degf given warming mid-levels, and a few spots over the lower Arkansas Valley may get close to 100f by late afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 228 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Our Friday night through Saturday weather will be dominated by high pressure sitting over New Mexico on Friday and meandering northwards towards the Colorado and New Mexico border by Saturday. This system will bring above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions to our plains, with only very isolated showers and thunderstorms over the high country for Saturday. Overnight lows on Friday night look to be near to just slightly above normal thanks to dry conditions and efficient cooling, while daytime highs on Saturday look to rise to around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This means highs in the mid 90s to low 100s across the plains, mid 80s to low 90s for mountain valleys, and 70s for higher terrain locations. Though relative humidity values look to fall into the low teens through Saturday afternoon, winds are expected to remain below critical fire weather thresholds. Sunday.. Sunday is a bit of a transition day, as models begin to bring a low onshore over the Pacific Northwest, which will shunt the high off to our southeast a bit as we get into the beginning of next week. This will eventually open up the monsoonal moisture tap over our region. For Sunday, models indicate that the beginning of this monsoonal moisture should start to work its way into the high country, as we remain situated along the northwestern periphery of the high. This setup could lead to the possibility of a few showers and storms pushing into the mountain adjacent plains through Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening as well, though the best chances for moisture will remain over the mountains for Sunday. Daytime highs look to remain around 4 to 8 degrees above normal for Sunday, though we will see a slight decrease from expected temperatures on Saturday, especially over and near the mountains where convective cloud cover will help to keep us cooler through the hottest part of the day. Our far eastern plains could still see triple digits under mostly sunny skies, but the majority of the I-25 corridor should top out in the 90s, with mountain valleys in the 80s and higher terrain locations in the 70s. Monday Onwards.. By Monday, models indicate that we transition to a pattern of slightly above normal temperatures and daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially over and near the higher terrain, thanks to the return of monsoonal moisture over the region. Ensembles, especially GEFS members, show a strong signal for PWAT anomalies exceeding the 100-140% range beginning Sunday and persisting all the way through next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1059 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be light (mostly less than 10 kts) and diurnally influenced at all terminals. There will be some gusty winds during the afternoon hours tomorrow at KCOS and KPUB. -Stewey && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...STEWARD