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FXUS65 KPUB 140955 CCA
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A couple
  may become strong to severe this evening north of Highway 50
  on the Plains.

- Highs today in the 80s and 90s for the lower elevations.

- Dry for most Thursday and Friday, with isolated mountain
  showers and storms possible.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage saturday
  through Tuesday, especially along the Continental Divide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Currently...overall, quiet conditions exist early this morning
across much of southern Colorado.  A few mountain observations over
the San Juans are reporting light precipitation, which lines up well
with IR satellite imagery enhancements over southwest Colorado. This
is along the trailing edge of our upper disturbance lined up for
today.  Much drier air over Utah is beginning to push east into
western Colorado.  Temperatures remain mild across the Plains with
mostly 60s to lower 70s so far this morning.  A few additional
degrees of cooler are expected by daybreak.

Today...an upper shortwave embedded in the westerly flow is forecast
to track from western Colorado into northeast Colorado through this
afternoon.  With a more northerly track, much of today`s convection
looks to remain across northern portions of the warning area. Expect
shower and thunderstorm development by midday from the La Garita,
north into the Central Mountains, then spreading east as the upper
wave tracks across northern Colorado.  Generally isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the Pikes
Peak Region and Palmer Divide by mid to late afternoon, with better
activity north of our area.  Drier air will begin to work east
behind the upper shortwave, which will limit shower and thunderstorm
development for southern portions of the area.  That being said, a
few showers and thunderstorms may be possible over the Eastern
Mountains this afternoon.  The overall threats from thunderstorms
look to be locally heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flash
flooding, lightning and gusty outflow winds.  Temperatures will warm
through the 80s and into the 90s across the lower elevations.

Tonight...a surface low is forecast to develop this evening and
track southeast from near Pueblo into Baca County.  This will send a
boundary south overnight as the surface low shifts southeast.  North
of the developing low, convection looks to develop this evening and
slowly shift east through around 2 AM for areas along and north of
HIghway 50.  SBCAPE values will be near 1000 j/kg late this
afternoon into this evening and 0-6km shear looks to be around 25 to
30 kts.  This may be enough to produce one or two stronger storms
this evening across Crowley, Otero, Bent, Prowers and Kiowa
Counties.  Hail near 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts near 60 mph
may be possible with stronger storms.  Elsewhere, dry conditions are
expected through the overnight hours as  upper ridging begins to
build across western Colorado.  Overnight lows will fall into the
50s and 60s across the Plains, with 40s across the San Luis Valley.
Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Thursday - Friday: For the end of the week, relatively quiet weather
is in store for south central and southeastern Colorado. Shortwave
ridging/an expanding ridge will be in place across the region behind
and exiting shortwave trough. This pattern will bring increased
descent, along with drier air as the aforementioned shortwave trough
scoured out better moisture. Given this, much of the area will
remain dry during this timeframe, though an isolated rain shower or
weak thunderstorm will be possible along the mountains each
afternoon. Any precipitation present though will dissipate during
the evening hours. Looking at temperatures, Thursday will be cooler
thanks to a minor cold front passage during Wednesday, bringing near
to slightly below seasonal values. Friday starts to warm back up to
around and slightly above seasonal values, as the ridge starts to
quickly build.

Saturday - Tuesday: For the rest of the long term period, an uptick
in active weather is anticipated as a monsoon pattern returns. The
ridge will continue to build over the area and while doing so,
moisture will begin to stream into the feature and over the region.
While no major forcing is expected, orographic forcing and diurnal
upsloping, in combination with the increased moisture, will allow
for daily afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms to blossom. The
greatest coverage of precipitation will be along and around the
mountains, but especially the Continental Divide area, where
moisture return will be greatest. Still, following a Summer pattern,
any showers and storms present during the afternoon hours will
dissipate during the evening as instability lessens. As for
temperatures, the warming will slowly continue. Much of the area
will warm to above seasonal values with the ridging in place.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at the terminal.  A
few light rain showers or thunderstorms are possible across the San
Luis Valley this afternoon, but confidence in one occurring at the
terminal is low.  The main concern may be brief wind gusts from any
outflows produced by thunderstorms.

KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.  At this time, it
appears shower and thunderstorm activity should remain north of the
terminal.  Brief wind gusts may be possible this afternoon due to
any storms to the north that produce outflow boundaries.  A boundary
will turn winds northerly overnight before weakening by Thursday
morning.

KCOS...VFR conditions through much of the next 24 hours.  A couple
of showers or thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon into
early evening.  Briefly reduced CIGS and VIS along with gusty
outflow winds may be possible.  A boundary will arrive this evening
turning winds northerly, weakening by Thursday morning. Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOZLEY