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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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497 FXUS65 KPUB 172039 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 239 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot again Sunday, with an upturn in thunderstorm chances, especially across the mountains and I-25 corridor. - Cooler with an uptick in heavy rain producing thunderstorms for Monday and possibly Tuesday with a few strong to near severe across the SE plains/I-25 corridor. - Heating up again with thunderstorms possible most days, greatest coverage over the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 236 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Currently...Better moisture and instability have remained over UT and wrn CO this afternoon, with thunderstorm activity as of 230 pm staying west of the Continental Divide. Have also seen an isolated storm develop over the ern plains of Colorado north of I-70 in Kit Carson County along the wrn edge of deep instability pool over nw KS, though expect this activity to remain north of the CWA. Building upper ridge has brought warmer temps to much of the region this afternoon, and locations along the lower Arkansas Valley were around 100 degf as of 2pm. Tonight...HRRR suggest wrn CO convection eventually reaches the central mountains from late this afternoon into this evening, with more isolated activity farther south over the La Garitas/San Juans. Valleys and eastern mountains could see a weak storm this evening as well, though rainfall amounts at lower elevations will be light at best. Activity ends at most locations after midnight, though a few lighter showers could linger into early Sunday morning over the higher peaks of the central mountains. Sunday...Upper ridge slips slowly eastward, allowing deeper moisture to gradually increase across the area by afternoon. Most models show a fairly substantial upturn in afternoon convection as a result, with a few storms reaching the I-25 corridor/sern plains. 0-6km shear (20 kts) and modest CAPE (1000 J/KG) suggest limited severe threat Sunday, though brief downburst/gusty near severe wind may be possible with any stronger storms. If convection can bridge the gap on the plains and reach deeper instability/greater shear near the KS border late in the day, severe threat would increase, especially Kiowa/Prowers Counties. Before storms develop, max temps Sunday look hot once again, with widespread 90s to near 100 lower elevations, 80s to low 90s valleys and lower mountain slopes. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 236 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Upper ridge remains anchored over the southern Rockies through the period with the ridge axis gradually shifting eastward with time through next week. This will mean westerly flow aloft will gradually become more southwesterly putting southern CO more directly under the monsoon fetch by mid week. Precipitable waters increase into the 100-150% of normal range for Monday with post frontal upslope flow spreading 50s to lower 60 dew points into southeast CO by afternoon. Shortwave rounding the top of the upper ridge across CO on Monday will provide a trigger for widespread afternoon and overnight showers and thunderstorms which will develop over the mountains by afternoon and spread eastward with time. Models suggest a convective cluster will develop somewhere along the southern I-25 corridor region and move east southeastward through the evening with the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding for vulnerable locations. With the potential for up to 2000+ J/kg of CAPE and respectable deep layer shears around 30 kts, a few strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out with large hail and damaging winds the primary concerns. Storms could linger past midnight out across far eastern areas until the MCS pushes eastward into KS overnight. Recycled moisture for Tuesday will lead to another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms with heavy rainfall the primary risks. These may stay focused across the mountains and adjacent I- 25 corridor as forecast soundings look more capped across eastern areas Tuesday afternoon, and forcing aloft looks weaker. Flow aloft becomes more southwesterly for mid to late week with a continued fetch of monsoon moisture over the region. Precipitable waters remain around 100-150% of normal each day with deepest moisture fetch across the Continental Divide, while lee troughing on the southeast plains drops back surface dew points some. There will still be a shot for heavy rain each day, but focus would trend westward across the eastern San Juans and Continental Divide region into next weekend. Meanwhile, temperatures should return to above normal with some near 100 degree readings across portions of the southeast plains. -KT && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds at KCOS and KPUB have been slow to switch to the usual upslope this morning, but most guidance suggests a shift back to s-se by 19z-20z. Overnight and Sunday morning, winds will be light and diurnally driven. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...PETERSEN