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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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824 FXUS65 KPUB 172306 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 506 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, a few strong to severe, especially along and east of the I-25 corridor. - Cooler weather is expected to persist into early next week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms capable of producing locally heavy rainfall continuing in and near the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 240 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates weak west to northwest flow aloft across the region, with the centroid of the upper high indicated across west central New Mexico at this time. Water vapor imagery also indicating weak embedded waves with the flow across the northern and central Rockies, with regional radars indicating cells already developing over the higher terrain as of 11 am. GOES blended total precipitable water vapor imagery indicting PWATS running 100 to 125 percent of normal, with some drying noted further northwest across the Eastern Great Basin at this time. SPC meso-analysis and model data continue to indicate modest CAPE and shear profiles over and near the higher terrain, with better instability and shear profiles indicated further east across the southeast Plains. With that said, will see scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop over the higher terrain through the late afternoon and early evening, with storms pushing east to southeast into a better storm environment across the I-25 Corridor into the southeast Plains. With the ample moisture in place and relatively slow steering flow of 15 to 25 mph, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible with all storms today. With CAPE of 500-1500 (along with DCAPE of 1000-1500) and effective shear increasing to 25 to 35 kts across the plains, could see strong outflow winds of 60-70 mph and large hail possible with the strongest storms across the plains this afternoon and evening. Latest CAMS are suggesting clouds slow to clear with some storms continuing across the southeast Plains through the late evening and overnight hours, as the northern Rockies embedded waves translate across the eastern Plains. With moisture in place and slowly clearing skies, overnight lows to be near to slightly above seasonal levels in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the plains, and mainly in the 40s across the higher terrain. For tomorrow, the upper high remains progged to slowly retrograde north and west into the Four Corners Region. This will bring in slightly drier air into the region within more northerly flow aloft. Models do indicate a slower timing of convective initiation, especially across the southeast plains with some subsidence behind the passing wave, as another wave across the Northern Rockies translates across the Central Rockies through the afternoon. There remains enough moisture to work with the next passing wave to support scattered to numerous showers and storms across the region, with the greatest coverage over and near the higher terrain, with the more northerly flow aloft. Again, can`t rule out heavy rainers with storms and localized flash flooding, along with the potential for a few strong wind gusts and hail across the southeast plains, where the best instability and shear profiles will remain. Temperatures tomorrow will be at to slightly warmer than today, especially across the plains with the slower timing of convection. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 240 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Temperatures warm for Friday with the upper ridge axis still anchored over the western U.S. This puts CO under continued northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. Energy dropping southward through the northern plains will set up a surface boundary which shifts south and eastward across the plains Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms will initiate over the mountains and reinforce the wind shift across the plains as they move eastward. This will be the focus for another round of fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. Surface dew points dry out along the I-25 corridor behind the boundary during the late afternoon, and shear looks weaker as well, though could still be around 30 kts in the afternoon. With up to 1000 to up to 1500 J/kg of CAPE near the eastern border, will need to watch for the potential for strong to severe storms across the far eastern plains, but for now think gusty outflow winds up to 65 mph will be the primary risk give more inverted V soundings and higher LCLs. Some small hail near the KS border will also be possible where higher CAPE will reside. We are not outlooked yet for severe yet, which looks okay given the marginal nature of the event, but wouldn`t be surprised to see a marginal risk added if the potential for a gusty outflow wind risk holds. A cold front drops through the southeast plains as an upper trough moves southward from Canada towards the Upper Midwest. This will bring cooler temperatures for the weekend with a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms as recycled monsoon moisture continues to circulate around the upper high to the west. Northerly steering currents should keep storms largely over the mountains, though outflows pushing off the higher terrain could spread a few storms into the southeast plains in the afternoon. Deep layer shear is even weaker on Saturday, so risk of severe looks low at this point though some elevated CAPE and PWAT ranging from 0.6 to 1.2 will be sufficient for locally heavy rainfall, maintaining a risk for flash flooding on burn scars. Not much change is expected through the extended with the ridge to the west keeping cooler northerly flow across the region and sufficient moisture for daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, most of which stay over and near the mountains. The main risk with thunderstorms will continue to be locally heavy rainfall capable of producing a localized flash flood potential for burn scars in the mountains. Gusty outflow winds up to 50 to 60 mph will also be possible along with some brief small hail over the higher terrain. Temperatures will remain below normal, especially across the plains and deep layer shears look relatively weak which should keep storm strengths largely below severe limits. -KT && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 506 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period, outside of the chance for MVFR and IFR conditions for the remainder of the night if a thunderstorms passes over KCOS and KPUB, with the best chance being KPUB. Diurnal wind fluctuations are expected outside of the influence of any thunderstorms. VCSH are expected near KALS and KCOS tomorrow afternoon around 22-23Z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...SKELLY