181
FXUS65 KPUB 072312
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
512 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorm winds are possible over the
  southeastern plains this afternoon

- Daily afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms expected for
  much of the week, but mostly along the mountains.

- Temperatures slowly warm throughout the week, with
  temperatures around seasonal values.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Updated to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the I-25
corridor and areas east into the Plains. Hail to the size of
golfballs and wind gusts near 60 mph will be possible with the
strongest storms. Flash flooding may be possible over urban
areas into this evening.  Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Currently...satellite imagery shows widespread cumulus clouds across
much of southern Colorado this afternoon, with clearing condition
south by the Kansas border.  Moisture has been slowly backing
westward across the Plains, with dewpoint values now into the lower
50s along the I-25 corridor.  Gusty east winds will continue to pull
moisture westward.  Temperatures are nice for this time of year,
with 70s to lower 80s across much of the lower elevations.

Rest of today and tonight...broad northwesterly flow aloft will
continue through tonight, with an upper shortwave trough digging
south across Wyoming and progressing southward across central
Colorado through Monday morning.  We are starting to see
thunderstorm development over Teller County, and this activity
should spread southeast across El Paso County through mid afternoon.
Model guidance in good agreement with a cold front dropping into the
Palmer Divide by late afternoon, and surging south along the I-25
corridor through this evening.  Moisture, and northeasterly upslope
flow should allow for convective development along the I-25 corridor
for late afternoon into this evening.  MLCAPE values around 1200
j/kg, 0-6km shear values near 40 kts and the upper wave dropping
into the area should allow for a few strong to severe storms through
this evening.  Initially, storms will develop across El Paso County,
and drop south-southeast across Pueblo and into the southeast
Colorado Plains through midnight.  Given the parameter listed above,
the strongest storms will be capable of producing golfball sized
hail and damaging winds.  Areas along the I-25 corridor, and just
east will see the greatest chances of severe weather into this
evening.  Non-zero helicity values are also anticipated, and an
isolated tornado may also be possible through this evening.  Given
the abundant moisture and increasing PWAT values, storms will be
efficient rain producers, and flash flooding over urban areas will
need to be monitored.

Expect the strongest storms to slowly dissipate overnight as they
shift south-southeast towards the Raton Mesa and New Mexico border
by Monday morning.  Most high-res guidance has thunderstorms ongoing
through tomorrow morning, with potential strong storms over Baca
County.  But for the most part, the severe threat should end around
midnight.  Localized flooding may also continue to be a threat into
Monday morning.

Monday...the upper wave will be shifting southeast into the southern
Plains by Monday afternoon.  Expect the overnight convection to
clear the area by 9 AM, with mostly dry conditions through the
remainder of the morning due to subsidence behind the departing
wave.  By afternoon, residual moisture over the mountains will spark
thunderstorms over the higher terrain.  Northerly flow aloft should
keep storms that develop along the higher terrain through the
afternoon.  Weak CAPE values may allow for a couple of storms to
produce small hail.  Locally heavy rainfall over burn scars could
potentially lead to flash flooding on burn scars.  Highs will remain
cool, with 70s and 80s across the lower elevations. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Monday Night - Saturday: Well not much has changed for the long term
forecast, with rain showers and thunderstorms each day and warming
temperatures. Synoptically, a ridge of high pressure to the west
will keep flow northwesterly for most of the period, and as the
ridge drifts eastward, transition flow to become more northerly.
Confidence continues to remain high to very high (>60%) on this
pattern evolution given consistency and strong ensemble model
support. While overall forcing will be mostly meager, modest
orographic forcing is expected, with reinforcement from diurnal
upsloping each afternoon. Along with that, at least modest moisture
will remain in place given the lack any major waves/troughs to scour
it out. Given all of that, daily isolated to scattered rain showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated, though mostly along the
mountains. An isolated shower or storm may push off of the higher
terrain and move over immediate adjacent areas. Most likely hazards
with any more organized storms will be gusty winds, small hail, and
lightning. Any precipitation present during the days is expected to
lessen in coverage and intensity during the evening hours as
instability and terrain forcing wane. Looking at temperatures, a
slow warming trend is anticipated. With the ridge pushing towards
and over the region, much of the area will rebound back to near
seasonal values for early to mid July.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 501 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A good chance of showers and thunderstorms will affect the KCOS
and KPUB terminals through 04z. While main risk will be MVFR to
brief IFR cigs/vis due to +TSRA, there could also be large hail
and gusty erratic winds up to 60 kts if a stronger storm makes
a direct impact. Risk will shift south of KCOS by 02-03z and
south of KPUB between 03-04z. Winds will shift out of the north
as the main line of thunderstorms move through then diminish
with cloud breaks during the overnight hours. Tomorrow will be
drier with VFR conditions and south to southeast winds 10-15
kts.

KALS will remain VFR, with breezy west to northwest winds 10-20
kts this evening before shifting out of the east around 03z as
winds spread through La Veta Pass and into the San Luis Valley.
Winds should diminish after 06z with light winds through Monday
morning. Tomorrow will remain VFR with scattered afternoon
clouds. Afternoon thunderstorm chances look too low to mention
in the TAF at this point. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT