Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
083 FXUS65 KPIH 160739 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 139 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today and Wednesday Expecting a pretty quiet day across eastern Idaho as high pressure regains control of local weather. Skies will be mostly clear early, aside from some haze from regional wildfires, before we`re likely to see a bit of CU development by midday but nothing overly impactful. Hi-res CAMs show a low potential for some dry thunderstorms along the WY border later today but this looks to be the only place where any convective activity could be and it`s fairly low at that. H5 heights continue to increase into the day Wednesday and temps will respond accordingly by rising a few more degrees with highs in the lower to middle 90s likely for lower elevations on Wednesday. A shortwave will sweep into the Pacific NW Wednesday morning and a bit of monsoon moisture may sneak into the western half of the forecast area to spark at least an isolated shower/storm chance, especially in the higher terrain. That being said, most spots will remain dry with above normal temperatures continuing into the weekend. McKaughan .LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday The overall trends really haven`t changed much forecast-wise. High pressure rebuilds across the region, with temperatures gradually warming up...but holding shy of where we were during our recent excessive heat event. In fact, portions of the Magic Valley, South Hills, and Wood River Valley are barely pushing into HEAT ADVISORY territory over the weekend. We will also seem some potential, even if more limited on some days vs others, for some showers and storms each day...as we don`t completely lose monsoon moisture rotating around the ridge. Keyes && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period with mostly clear skies and no precipiation. Winds will be light, generally 10 kts or less, into the day Wednesday. There could be some haze in the skies from regional wildfires but visibilities are likely to stay above 6 miles. McKaughan && .FIRE WEATHER... Warmer temperatures and the daily potential for some showers and storms SOMEWHERE across central and eastern Idaho is in place for the next several days. Moisture for storms today is pretty limited. The latest trend in higher resolution models is for any real potential for isolated storm being along the Wyoming border. A storm or 2 is certainly possible elsewhere, but below 15%. There seems to be an uptick in potential coverage Wednesday and/or Thursday. A caveat, we have seen some poor modeling of storms day to day in the higher resolution models...so trends will need to be monitored pretty hard over the next couple of days. While we are expecting little to no storm coverage across the Snake Plain and eastern highlands, higher elevations will see a better potential. The current forecast doesn`t have us hitting scattered anywhere...yet. If you look at the raw Blend of Models thunder chances, there is some concern of hitting that threshold for RED FLAG WARNINGS (25% or higher) across portions of Zones 411, 413 and 427 one or both days. These storms would mostly be dry with gusty winds. The highest concentration for stronger winds actually lies across Zones 422/425/427 where there is a 70% chance of winds over 35 mph, with indications of gusts over 50 mph tomorrow. More coordination today is needed to see if we need issue any headlines. Keyes && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$