Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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356 FXUS61 KPHI 092337 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 737 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front positioned across portions of our region should retreat northward late tonight and Wednesday as a warm front. A cold front will then arrive later Wednesday night and Thursday as the remnant low of Beryl tracks northwest of our region. The front remains in our area Friday and Saturday before dissipating into Sunday. The next cold front may approach during Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 735 PM...The thunderstorms that occurred a little earlier in portions of our eastern PA and northern NJ zones have weakened and moved out of the area. Still can`t rule out a stray shower or storm this evening north of the urban corridor but at this point think that any additional activity will be extremely limited as we lose the daytime heating. With the very humid air mass firmly in place, tonight will be similar to last night with overnight low temperatures in the 70s across the region, and an intrusion of marine layer fog for coastal areas. Not sure how far inland the fog will reach tonight, so have held off on any land based dense fog advisory. As for the heat, dewpoints and subsequently heat index values today were slightly higher than previously expected. With no dry air advection expected before tomorrow, think we will see very similar conditions for tomorrow. Consequently, we upgraded the Heat Advisory along the 95 corridor to an Excessive Heat Warning with the afternoon update and extended the Heat Advisory in the southern Poconos through the day tomorrow. For tomorrow, we`ll also be closely watching the remnant low of Beryl. The center of the low is still forecast to remain well west of our region, and interestingly, most deterministic guidance now shows a very robust dry slot developing on the east side of the low. That being said, I stayed pretty close to the previous forecast, as I`m leery of a dry slot developing that quickly. That being said, storms may stay mostly confined to areas north and west of the fall line during the day time before we see storms spread any further eastward. Primary concern with any storms that develop will be heavy rain due to the very high precipitable water values and deep warm cloud layer. However, storm motions should be relatively fast which may limit the flash flood threat somewhat. For areas generally along and north of the I-78 corridor, also can`t rule out some severe thunderstorm potential - primarily straight line winds. The severe risk will be mostly for storms that develop in the afternoon. Storms should progress off shore late overnight Wednesday night leading to at least a brief lull in precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The humid conditions lessen Thursday, however it then increases again Friday although temperatures will turn less hot. Showers and some thunderstorms increase Thursday night and especially Friday with some areas of very heavy rainfall and some flash flooding possible. As a positive-tilt upper-level through very slowly shifts eastward across the Great Lakes, adjacent Canada and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, a weakening upper-level low turns northwest off the western Atlantic and makes a run at our area. A front will also be positioned across our area, which may actually move back westward some with time. The above features will make it turn more convectively active especially on Friday, however Thursday should favor some break in the high humidity as the plume of 2+ inches of precipitable water shifts mostly off the coast. Some increase in the surface winds Thursday should result in some mixing down of the drier air and therefore dew points are forecast to drop into the 60s for much of the area. While it will be very warm, the apparent temperatures will therefore be lower as the dew points drop. Any shower and thunderstorm activity on Thursday may be confined to the first half of the day tied to the eastward shifting high precipitable water plume. A few showers and thunderstorms however cannot be ruled out the rest of the day given an upper-level trough slowly approaching from the west. Showers and thunderstorms may then start to increase from the southeast and south by later Thursday night as the high precipitable water plums begins to back westward. As we go through Friday, the plume of 2.0-2.5 inches of precipitable water is forecast to shift westward as a weaken upper-level low off the Carolina coasts continues west and northwestward but weakens. This results in building instability and increasing forcing for ascent within the high precipitable water axis. Therefore showers and some thunderstorms are expected to increase through the day. The freezing levels are forecast to be high and therefore convection will be efficient rainfall producers. The southerly flow may also result in some training or backbuilding convection at least for a time, and if this becomes realized it will enhance the local very heavy rain/flash flooding risk. Where excessive rainfall rates occur, local flash flooding will certainly be possible. This looks to be focused across much of the coastal plain, however this could also extend farther north and west. Given a moist environment and increasing coverage of convection, instability should be low enough and therefore not anticipating a severe thunderstorm risk at this point. With the expectation of much more cloud cover and increased convection, temperatures will be noticeably cooler although it will be very humid. The convection may continue for much of Friday night before weakening or shifting eastward closer to daybreak Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Summary...Some shower and thunderstorm potential, however the heat looks to build once again especially early next week. Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough is forecast to gradually overspread the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the weekend and right into early next week. This trough may arrive in two pieces with the second one being stronger than the first. At the surface, a front is forecast to be stalled near our area Saturday then slowly shifts south and east or dissipates into early next week. For Saturday...As an upper-level trough slowly approaches from the west, a surface front draped across our area should assist in a zone of convergence. Lingering convection should continue at least in the morning before some drier air tries to arrive from the west. A plume of high precipitable water can result in areas of very heavy rain as the lingering convection should be very efficient rainfall producers. It will remain very humid for most of the area, however temperatures are forecast to be low enough to keep heat indices below advisory criteria. For Sunday through Tuesday...The upper-level trough is forecast to overspread the region during this time, and this could be a little stronger as some shortwave energy amplifies it some. The front in place may tend to dissipate or shift offshore. Some drying starts to work in and this should limit convection chances, however still cannot rule out a diurnally driven shower or thunderstorm especially across the western zones. Despite the trough, the heat looks to build again with daytime temperatures getting into the low to mid 90s for many places each day. While dew points may not be quite as excessive, peak heat indices are currently forecast to reach or exceed 100 degrees in many areas particularly Monday and Tuesday. The hot conditions may promote a surface trough in our vicinity Monday and Tuesday which may focus a shower or thunderstorm, then a cold front may approach from the northwest later Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...Expect VFR for the 4 urban corridor sites with a better chance of restrictions at RDG, ABE, MIV, and ACY. For MIV and especially ACY, there is a good potential for at least some IFR late tonight due to marine fog and stratus. It also looks like there could be some low stratus developing at RDG and ABE but confidence is relatively low on this. Southerly winds generally around 5 knots or less. Wednesday...Some early morning restrictions as ACY, MIV, RDG, and ABE as noted above but this should become VFR by around 14z. After 15Z, there is an increasing chance for showers and storms to spread into the region from west to east. Most TAF sites (aside from KABE and KRDG) are unlikely to see TSRA before 18Z, and may not see much before 00Z. Winds prevailing from the SW around 10 kt with some gusts to around 20 kt. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on timing of storms. Outlook... Thursday and Friday...Periods of sub-VFR probable especially Thursday night and Friday with an increase in showers and some thunderstorms. Saturday and Sunday...Some local sub-VFR conditions possible associated mostly with a shower and thunderstorm. && .MARINE... Marine Dense Fog Advisory continues through 18Z Wednesday. We don`t have any significant changes coming in the wind direction, so the fog is expected to persist until we start to get rain showers or stronger winds, which will likely not come until Wednesday afternoon at the earliest. Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria through Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon though, gusts 25 to 30 KT and seas approaching 5 ft are expected on the Atlantic Ocean waters. Thus, have issued a Small Craft Advisory for Wednesday afternoon and night. On the Delaware Bay, winds may get close to 25 kt, but confidence is low, so have held off on issuing an SCA at this time. Outlook... Thursday...Southerly winds could be strong enough for some gusts to 25 knots which may build the seas to 5 feet. Since it looks marginal at this point, held off on a Small Craft Advisory criteria. Showers and some thunderstorms should be on the increase especially at night and some storms could produce locally gusty winds. Friday through Sunday...The conditions should be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Showers and some thunderstorms are expected especially Friday into Saturday with locally gusty winds possible. Rip Currents... Southerly winds will continue to increase through midweek and will generally be around 15 to 20 mph for both Wednesday and Thursday. This will result in waves around 2 to 3 feet in the surf zone. Given the wind component and some higher breaking waves developing, there is a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents through Thursday for the New Jersey Shore. Due to somewhat lower waves for the Delaware Beaches, we went with a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents both days. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ060-070- 071-101>106. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ054-055-061-062. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-071- 101>106. NJ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ009-010- 012-013-015-017>020-027. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ001-007-008-016- 021-022. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001- 007>010-012-015-017>019. DE...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for DEZ002-003. MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ012-015-019-020. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gorse NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/Johnson SHORT TERM...Gorse LONG TERM...Gorse AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Gorse/Johnson MARINE...Gorse/Johnson